Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS62 KRAH 270612
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
210 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will extend across the area through
today. A low pressure system developing off the Southeast coast will
drift toward the northwest into the Carolinas and Southeast over the
-- End Changed Discussion --
.NEAR TERM /through tonight/...
As of 924 PM Thursday...
Convection associated with the lingering upper shear axis over
western NC, caught/trapped with in the upper level ridge axis in
place across the region has diminished with loss of heating. Outside
of an isolated shower across the far western Piedmont, remainder of
the night will be dry.
The continued modification of the low level atmosphere along with
patchy mid level cloudiness will support mild overnight
temperatures. Min temps in the mid 60s.
.SHORT TERM /Friday through Friday Night/...
As of 335 PM Thursday...
A narrow ridge of high pressure aloft will extend west-east across
central NC. This feature will maintain a mid level cap and inhibit
convective development over most of the region. The exception may be
the far west-nw where outflow boundaries from overnight convection
and linger weak upper level disturbance may enable an isolated
shower or storm to develop during the heat of the day.
Low level thicknesses comparable to today, supportive of afternoon
temps well into the 80s, near 90 in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain.
Continued mild overnight with min temps in the mid 60s.
.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...
The main forecast concern for this period continues to be the
potential tropical/sub-tropical development of an area of low
pressure between the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend.
The upper level ridge responsible for the recent quiet weather will
break down as the coastal low develops. To the west, an upper level
trough will linger for the weekend. A shortwave will progress from
the southern Rockies northeastward along the trough axis toward the
As the upper level short wave moves through the Great Lakes, the
northeastward moving coastal (tropical) low will progress toward the
SC coast. As of the most recent runs, the models indicate these two
features interacting Sunday night/Monday. The upper level shortwave
could absorb the coastal low (possible tropical system) on Monday.
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty on whether the low will
move up the Mid-Atlantic coast or hand out along the Carolina coast
before slowly moving inland. Regardless of this, the majority of
this period appears to be fairly unsettled, with chances for
convection, highest in the aft/eve, everyday. Much of the coverage,
duration, and timing of convection will depend on how the system evolves
and thus confidence is still somewhat low. With the strong advection
of Atlantic moisture into the region on the northern edge of the
low, expect increasing clouds from the east on Saturday, though much
of the day will remain dry. Cloudy skies could persist through much
of the period.
Temperatures through the period: with the increasing clouds and
chances for rainfall, expect highs to decrease from the mid 80s on
Saturday, to upper 70s to low 80s Sunday. Highs should slowly
moderate back into the mid 80s by the middle of the week. Overnight
lows will remain fairly steady in the mid to upper 60s.
.AVIATION /06Z Friday through Tuesday/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 210 AM Friday...
High confidence in VFR conditions dominating central NC terminals
today through tonight. A ridge of surface high pressure centered
offshore east of VA/NC will continue to extend to the west and
southwest, resulting in a light surface flow mainly from the SW over
central NC, and sufficiently dry low levels to preclude fog
development. Meanwhile, dry and sinking air in the mid levels will
suppress most cloud development, with any clouds likely to be based
at 4-6 kft AGL. Pockets of shallow ground fog are possible near RWI
this morning (due in part to the proximity of water) between 08Z and
12Z, however the latest guidance shows a low enough potential to
preclude a mention in the TAF at this time. An isolated storm is
possible near INT/GSO late this afternoon or early evening, but
coverage will be too low to include in these TAFs.
Looking beyond 06Z early Sat morning: VFR conditions are likely to
hold through at least early afternoon Sat. Clouds will then thicken
and lower from SE to NW -- affecting FAY and RWI first -- starting
late Sat, as an offshore low pressure area tracks NW toward the
Southeast states. Areas of MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and isolated
storms are expected to spread into the FAY vicinity Sat evening
before expanding across all central NC terminals late Sat night,
continuing into Sun. Areas of sub-vfr fog are possible Sun night and
Mon night, with mostly VFR conditions during the day Mon and Tue,
however the forecast confidence drops dramatically beyond Sun
regarding the path of the offshore low... so aviation interests
should monitor the latest forecasts closely over the long holiday
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