Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240603 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 202 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY... VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO). BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS... WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY... MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST... WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA. THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY... STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90 OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER 80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE. SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10 KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/ STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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