Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KRAH 191822
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
222 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016
A deep ridge of high pressure will extend across the region through
Thursday. A surface cold front and upper level low pressure trough
will approach from the west Thursday night, then cross the area
Friday through Friday night. Cool high pressure will build in from
the west over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM Wednesday...
Basically a temperature forecast today, and the current forecast
appears to right on track. A 590dm ridge at H5 spans the Southeast,
resulting in strong subsidence and a 1403m low level thickness at
KGSO this morning. This will yield near record highs in the mid
80 this afternoon. GSO AND RDU may break these record highs:
GSO - 86 in 1938
RDU - 87 in 1941
FAY - 90 in 1926
Tonight, Skies should be mostly clear with light southwesterly
winds. Low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning
staying up in the low 60s.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...
Not quite as hot on Thursday as the ridge begins to break down and
we start to see cloud cover increase ahead of a frontal system that
will be moving through the Ohio Valley. Still will see low to mid
80s though across the area with light southwesterly winds ahead of
the front. Dewpoints will come up into the mid 60s ahead of the
front as well as some moisture advection begins. Despite this,
Thursday will be dry precipitation wise. This will be the last 80
degree day for a while as the front moves through on Friday and
brings a new airmass for the weekend and into next week. Lows
Thursday night in the lower 60s.
.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 222 PM Wednesday...
The only chance for rain during this part of the forecast will be
Friday, associated with the passage of a fairly deep upper trough
and assoc sfc cold front. Right now it appears that the front will
sweep across central NC between 12 and 21Z Friday. Forecast
soundings continue to show modest and shallow moisture assoc with
this system, as noted by forecast pwats barely reaching 1.25 inches.
Even though recent model runs have been trending a bit wetter, it
still appears that locations that get any rain out of this system
should only see about 1/4 inch or less, with the best chance for
rain along and north of the Hwy 64 corridor, closer to the more
favorable dynamics. The timing of the front may be just early enough
to keep high temps during the day at or below 75F.
Friday evening and night, in the wake of the trough passage, look
for quickly clearing skies, breezy condition, and caa which will
drop temps into the lower 40s for lows that night.
This weekend is looking mostly clear, but chilly, thanks to nw flow
in the wake of the departing trough. Despite ample sunshine, daytime
highs will only reach the lower to mid 60s, and lows sunday morning
will dip down into the upper 30s.
The first half of next week still looks mostly clear, but with an
upper short wave (embedded in the nw flow) and a dry sfc front
progged to move se and across our area on Monday, temp moderation
may be delayed a bit. Nevertheless, temps during this time are
expected to be within a few degrees of normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Wednesday...
High confidence VFR forecast this afternoon through the first half
of tonight. Light wind and clear skies will again bring the
possibility of localized radiation fog, with models indicating
better chances of mostly IFR/MVFR at FAY and some typical IFR or
LIFR at RWI.
Long term: Another high confidence VFR day on Thursday, followed by
the potential for some low clouds Thursday night ahead of a front
and associated showers that will cross the area on Friday. VFR will
return for the weekend, with some minor northwest wind gusts behind
the front on saturday