Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190305 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1000 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure is expected to drift offshore tonight as a weak warm front begins to lift north through the area early Monday. A strong high pressure will build back in on Tuesday, bringing the potential for record warmth by mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1000 PM Sunday... Latest surface analysis shows high pressure continuing to drift north and east into the Atlantic, aiding in weak easterly to southeasterly surface winds across central North Carolina. Cloud cover has also been on the rise in the south and western portions of the forecast area with moisture in the low to mid levels beginning to rise. A weakening frontal boundary will drift north tonight, spreading light rain showers from southwest to northeast. With limited moisture depth and lift with this system, expect only low end QPF amounts through dawn. Temperatures should remain relatively mild across the sandhills, bottoming out in the mid to upper 40s, with upper 30s prevalent across the northern Piedmont, who should see a few additional hours of SCT/BKN ceilings.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 248 PM Sunday... The warm frontal slope will lift northward through the region between 15z-18z, moving into southern VA late afternoon. However, the residual stable air mass (in-situ CAD) will be very hard to scour out given that the surface ridge axis is forecast to extend back over NC into late Monday and Monday night. Therefore, even thought the shallow lift and light rain will shift north Monday afternoon, the low overcast and areas of fog will likely remain. This will keep highs down (we plan on undercutting statistical guidance a few degrees). Expect upper 40s north to 55-60 south to take all day to achieve. Areas of dense fog are likely, especially late Monday and Monday night as the winds go calm. Temperatures should only fall a few degrees Monday evening, then rise some later in the SE Coastal Plain region toward Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday... High confidence for record-breaking warm weather for the middle of the week. A 595 ridge centered off the SE coast and resulting southerly flow over our area will give us unseasonably warm conditions during the middle of the week, with perhaps some record highs. This ridge will flatten and shift south during the latter half of the week, which will allow a cold front to approach from the north on Thursday, dropping southward to roughly the I-85 corridor. There is some uncertainty as to how far south into North Carolina the front will progress on Friday. Regardless, it appears that low-end PoPs will be needed for at least the northern half of our CWA for late Wednesday through Thursday. Thereafter, if the front lifts back north on Friday, that would result in a drier forecast for Friday and Saturday. However, if it pushes further south on Friday then lifts back north on Saturday, that would result in lingering rain chances both days. Dry and unseasonably warm weather is in store for Sunday. Temperature records are likely to be broken Tuesday, Wednesday, and perhaps Thursday. Maximum readings will be in the 70s to the lower 80s. Overnight lows in the 50s to around 60 will come close to record warm lows. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 652 PM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Aviation conditions will deteriorate rapidly late this evening and overnight as strengthening southerly warm moist air advection/overrunning spreads north across the area. Ceilings will lower to IFR to LIFR between 06z to 14z, with light rain reducing visibilities to IFR to MVFR. The light rain is expected to taper to drizzle by late morning/early afternoon, before ending by mid afternoon. Once precip ends, ceilings are expected to lift to IFR and MVFR with visibilities improving to MVFR to VFR. Outlook: CIGS/VSBYS should lower back into the LIFR range Tuesday night with dense fog likely, before VFR conditions return early Wednesday. Generally VFR conditions are forecast mid to late week, with a low PROB of late night and early morning MVFR to IFR stratus fog in the warm and humid air mass for February. && .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 75 1939 62 1939 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 02/22 75 1897 60 1897 02/23 79 1980 57 1962 02/24 81 1982 58 1985 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 74 1922 56 1939 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 02/22 74 1925 57 1980 02/23 74 2017 52 1922 02/24 79 1982 55 1985 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/20 82 2014 60 1939 02/21 80 1991 61 1953 02/22 77 2003 56 1989 02/23 80 1922 55 1922 02/24 83 1930 60 1975 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJM NEAR TERM...JJM SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...np/Franklin AVIATION...CBL/Badgett CLIMATE...Badgett

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