Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 261958 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 257 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 257 PM MONDAY... ...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING... ...BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT WAS WELL UNDERWAY JUST OFF TO THE NE OF THE CAPE HATTERAS SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER OUR REGION SHIFTS EAST. FOR OUR REGION... THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH... WHICH WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME SCATTERED BUT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NC WELL INTO THE EVENING. QPF WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT (MAINLY ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO) IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WILL BE SLOW TO COOL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DELAY ANY POSSIBILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SNOW FLAKE (WELL... O.K. MAYBE A SNOW FLURRY) UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. BEST TIMING TO SEE A FLURRY WOULD BE 300 AM TO MID MORNING... AND NE OF RDU. THE WEST SHOULD DRY BEFORE ANY CHANCE OF A FLURRY. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH COOLING FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DARK IN THE NW PIEDMONT... THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT. THAT SAID... THE COLD AIR IS CHASING THE MOISTURE AND THIS IS NOT AT SET UP AT ALL FOR ANY TYPE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. BY THE TIME THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS ENOUGH FOR A SNOW FLAKE... THE BOUNDARY AND NEAR SURFACE LAYERS WILL STILL BE TOO WARM. THEN... AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH... THE GROUND IS STILL WARM... ETC. WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING... ENDING FROM THE WEST OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT - PARTIAL CLEARING THERE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS... BECOMING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NE. NO ACCUMULATION. LOWS 27 NW TO 30 AROUND RDU AND 35 FROM FAY TO RWI. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY... WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS (WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY... THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW AND WARMEST SE. FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY... AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT. SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSFER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL LIFT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY. MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE WELL NE OF OUR REGION. YET... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD NOT BE LIMITED TO UNDER VFR IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS. NW WINDS 10- 15KT EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE NE INCLUDING KRDU AND KRWI... WITH A POSSIBLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AS THE STORM TO OUR NE PULLS AWAY. LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED AGAIN. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...BADGETT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.