Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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990 FXUS62 KRAH 200619 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 220 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will extend across the region today. A surface cold front will approach from the west tonight, crossing the area on Friday and Friday night. Much cooler high pressure will build in behind the front over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 PM Wednesday... Surface high pressure will ridge southwestward into South Carolina, while a weak piedmont trough will be in place over Central NC overnight. Skies should remain mostly clear and winds will be calm to light and variable. Lows will again be around 60 degrees and low dewpoint depressions could result in some fog/low stratus in the pre- dawn hours, mainly in the east, however coverage will be patchy. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Wednesday... No change in the airmass tomorrow, though the upper ridge does begin to weaken between a deepening trough over the central US and disturbance north of the Bahamas. Full sun thicknesses around 1400m tomorrow morning will yield low/mid 80s again, with guidance shaving off a degree or two compared to today. Clouds will begin to increase across the west late Thursday night as the aforementioned, and by then full-latitude, trough reaches the Tenn Valley. Moisture profiles ahead (and even with) the trough and associated front as pretty anemic, so most of the area will remain cloud free. A steady light wind, more so west, should keep temps from full cooling,so will edge a little higher then guidance, 60-63 from east to west. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
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As of 220 AM Thursday... A much cooler airmass will settle into the area over the weekend, with highs on Saturday struggling into the lower 60s in northwest flow despite sunny skies. Saturday night will provide ideal radiation conditions as the pressure gradient relaxes and Sunday morning mins will be mostly in the lower 40s with possibly some upper 30s in outlying areas. Milder high pressure edges in from the southwest Sunday, and highs will be a bit warmer, though still a little below normal...mid to upper 60s. The first half of next week looks mostly clear and dry, but a reinforcing shot of cool air will move through on Monday, which will maintain daily highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s after morning mins in the mid and upper 40s.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 735 PM Wednesday... 24 Hour TAF Period: High confidence of VFR conditions this evening through the first half of tonight, and again after sunrise Thursday. Light and variable to calm winds and clear skies will again bring the possibility of localized radiation fog, with models indicating a better chances of mostly IFR/MVFR at KFAY and IFR/LIFR at KRWI than previous nights. Further west at the piedmont TAF sites (KGSO/KINT/KRDU), patchy MVFR visbys will be possible near sunrise. Any sub-VFR conditions that develop will quickly dissipate with sunrise, with VFR and dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day. Outlook: Another high confidence of VFR conditions is expected Thursday evening, followed by the potential for some low clouds Thursday night ahead of a front and associated showers that will cross the area on Friday. VFR conditions will return for the weekend, with some minor northwest wind gusts behind the front on Saturday && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...mlm NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...BS LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...BD/BS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.