Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 021849 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 249 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THEN STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES STARTING TO RECOVER ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION WITH SOUTHERN SITES STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE LOWER 80S. A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WILL ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD AND NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BULK SHEAR WILL BE BETWEEN 20-30 KTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DROPPING OFF AGAIN CLOSER TO SUNSET. SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE AVAILABLE TO NEW CONVECTION. WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 12 KFT IN THE TRIAD THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY SPOT TO SEE SMALL HAIL BUT SKINNY CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAKES THIS FAIRLY UNLIKELY BUT POSSIBLE. WIND THREAT IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT EITHER BUT DCAPE VALUES AROUND 700 IN THE SOUTHWEST SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME SMALL WET MICROBURSTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE. THAT LEAVES THE BIGGEST THREAT OF THE DAY TO BE HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW WHERE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY WET AND 1 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWER. OFF TO THE EAST THE SEA BREEZE IS PUSHING A BAND OF CONVECTION FURTHER INLAND WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA TO THE NW PIEDMONT (ONLY WITH A MUCH HIGHER FREEZING LEVER) ALSO SUGGEST THAT SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL. NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA HAVE SEEN THE BIGGEST REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURE DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION AND MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER BUT THE SAME INSTABILITY/SHEAR NUMBERS HERE MAKE CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS CONVECTING ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE MORE OF A PUSH FROM THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE WEST. CEILINGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP IN MOST LOCATIONS TO AT LEAST IFR IF NOT LIFR BETWEEN 9-12Z. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY... WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND A CREATE A SITUATION WHERE CEILINGS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER TO MUCH MORE THAN MVFR LEVELS DURING THE DAY. LIFT GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO KEEP STEADY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK AND SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 10 KTS. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE TRIAD WITH NEAR 80 DEGREES IN EASTERN COUNTIES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE TRIAD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. POINTS EAST WILL STILL SEE LOW TO MID 60S HOWEVER. CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LINGERING CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC STILL ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD A MODERATING AIRMASS SOME. HOWEVER... WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND A LINGERING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NW TO THE LOWER 80S SE. THE MID LEVEL LOW ON THURSDAY WILL SLOWLY WOBBLE EASTWARD FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING (SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS)... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER... OVERALL DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK... WITH SURFACE INSTABILITY WEAK TO MODEST AT BEST. THUS... ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DURING THIS TIME... WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING (ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT HAPPEN TO RECEIVE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIP) BEING THE MAIN HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT ON FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATING AIRMASS... WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: UNSETTLED FORECAST CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... ANOTHER TRAILING OR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA (AS SHOWN ON THE LATEST ECWMF... WHICH WOULD ENHANCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EVEN MORE) SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL A LITTLE TO EARLY TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH THIS POSSIBLE FRONT WILL MAKE IT. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE AND LOWS NEAR NORMAL. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SEND ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS CENTRAL NC LATE MONDAY FROM THE WEST. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR DAY 7 IN THE FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LEFT SEVERAL SMALL BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THAT COULD HELP GENERATE CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS RAIN COOLED TEMPERATURES RECOVER AND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT...ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD BECOME STRONGER TOWARDS EVENING WITH THE OCCASIONAL WIND GUST INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE. OTHERWISE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT AND TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS ON CEILING AND VISIBILITY. CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AFTER 6Z OR SO AND THEN A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CHANCE THAT THESE COULD REMAIN AT LEAST AT MVFR LEVELS IF NOT LOWER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LONG TERM: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ADVECTING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...ELLIS

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