Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 010217 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1017 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY... AFTER MANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE AREA...THE SEVERE WEATHER IS WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING...AND THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED/EXPIRED FOR THE AREA. THE VORT MAX LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST. THIS COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION HAS RESULTED IN DIMINISHING ACTIVITY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT FELL EARLIER...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS RELAXES A LITTLE AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW EXITS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH A GAP IN THE MOISTURE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF WHAT WILL BE A STRING OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVES FROM THE MIDWEST...LOOK FOR A RELATIVELY DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE BUT OTHERWISE DRY. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH FORCED OFF THE COAST AND CENTRAL NC SITTING AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY FAIRLY REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANCE FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING BUT A BROKEN LOW CEILING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE EAST BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY... THE GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY GENERAL TROUGHINESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT GENERAL LOW PRESSURE TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE STUCK OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THEREAFTER. SMALL VARIATIONS IN THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON THE CHANCES...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION...THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN THAT RESPECT. GENERALLY THOUGH... EXPECT THE USUAL HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFT/EVE AND LOWEST OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURE WISE: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY (WHICH FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY)...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 810 PM TUESDAY... A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION WILL AFFECT KRDU...KRWI AND KFAY THROUGH 02Z THEN EITHER EXIT THE REGION OR DIMINISH. IN ITS WAKE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 09Z...THERE MAY BE A SCATTERED LAYER OF STRATUS WITH BASES 600-1000FT. IF A CEILING DEVELOPS...IT SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION (LESS THAN AN HOUR). FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUD BASES VARY BETWEEN 4500-6000FT. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. FOR THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY PERIOD...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACTS WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING STRATUS WITH LOW END MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING. && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...WSS

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