Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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937 FXUS62 KRAH 200014 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 714 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure over the region will keep a warm front over the SE Coastal Plain tonight. Finally, the front will surge north of the area Tuesday, bringing much warmer temperatures for the rest of the week. Record warm weather is anticipated Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 645 PM Monday... ...Areas of dense fog likely overnight... In situ cold air damming air mass over the bulk of the Piedmont and northern coastal plain early this evening. 22Z meso-analysis depicts a coastal front/pseudo warm front over our far southeast counties. this sfc feature expected to waver through late this evening then lift lowly northwestward overnight. The warmer air associated with this boundary flowing over the relatively cool air at the surface will cause fog and/or low clouds to develop with the potential for dense fog, especially in vicinity of highway 64 and along the I- 40/85 corridor. if the fog appears it will become thick, a dense fog advisory will be necessary. Temperatures will hold steady this evening then slowly rise overnight, especially along and east of highway 1. Locations along and east of I-95 between Fayetteville and Wilson will likely be at or slightly warmer than 60 degrees by daybreak.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 353 PM Monday... ...Areas of dense fog early... The fog will likely be dense and extensive through mid-morning Tuesday. Finally, the WAA aloft will be allowed to gradually mix down and scour out the stratus/fog during the late morning and afternoon. Also aiding the process will be the increasing heights aloft with the expanding upper ridge. This will lead to sinking and mixing down of drier air from aloft. Highs should be tempered with readings slow to warm in the Piedmont, but earlier clearing in the south will aid warming there. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s expected, with the cooler damp NAM guidance with the slower clearing preferred guidance in the Piedmont Damming Region Tuesday. Low stratus again should be a problem in the Piedmont Tuesday night. Unseasonably moist PW`s expand northward over the region with dew points expected to be in the 50s and lower 60s (SE). If the winds become calm again, then fog may again become an issue or hazard. Lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s (see record high minimums listed below). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 213 PM Monday... Unseasonable, perhaps record warmth will be the main weather story Wednesday and Thursday, thanks to a 595 ridge off the southeast coast and warm southerly flow on the western side of that ridge. Highs will range from the lower-mid 70s NW to lower 80s SE both days, along with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The next cold front (that`s currently extending from the Great Lakes region southwest to the south central Plains) will slowly drop south into and across NC Thursday evening through Thursday night. It`s possible that some light rain may begin north of the I-85 corridor as early as late afternoon Thursday (which would hold temps there a bit lower than currently forecast), but it appears that the best chance for rain assoc with the fropa and subsequent CAD behind it, will be Thursday evening into Friday morning. After a cloudy damp start to Friday with the CAD in place, the boundary will attempt to lift back north by late-day with southerly flow and warming returning in it`s wake. Temps Friday will be dependent on the timing of the CAD erosion and clouds breaking up and the southerly flow returning. However, right now it looks like locations near the SC border will have the best chance of seeing temps returning to lower 70s, while warming farther north will be delayed, holding in the lower to mid 60s. Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with our area between the sfc high centered to our east and the next cold front moving across the OH and MS valleys. Warm southerly flow between the two and sunshine will help temps climb into the 70s. Then on Sunday the front is expected to cross the region, bringing a chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm to our area, and subsequent cooling trend in the wake of the front for early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 714 PM Monday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Widespread dense fog and associated LIFR conditions are expected to develop across the area this evening between 00 to 06z as warmer air just above the sfc will lift atop the shall cool air at the surface. These conditions will only slowly improve Tuesday, improving to IFR to MVFR CIGS at nearly all sites by 18z to 21z. Outlook Tuesday night through Friday: Lingering low-level moisture/stratus Tuesday afternoon/evening could lower to IFR and LIFR again Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are expected to return on Wednesday and should remain predominately VFR through Friday, aside for IFR to LIFR conditions with late night to early morning fog/stratus.
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&& .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 75 1939 62 1939 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 02/22 75 1897 60 1897 02/23 79 1980 57 1962 02/24 81 1982 58 1985 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 74 1922 56 1939 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 02/22 74 1925 57 1980 02/23 74 2017 52 1922 02/24 79 1982 55 1985 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/20 82 2014 60 1939 02/21 80 1991 61 1953 02/22 77 2003 56 1989 02/23 80 1922 55 1922 02/24 83 1930 60 1975 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...np AVIATION...CBL CLIMATE...RAH

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