Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260810 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 410 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Monday... Frontal zone will continue to be suppressed south, and will lie along the coast southeast of the area today. We will remain in a pleasantly dry airmass with westerly flow inducing lee troffing and a bit of a warmup into the mid and upper 80s...just a bit above Sunday`s highs...over the Piedmont this afternoon. A second reinforcing dry surface front will move across the area late today. The front will be accompanied by increasing high cloudiness as a mid level jet streak races east across the Ohio Valley. The Mid/high cloudiness will become even more prevalent tonight as a second impulse digs into the broad trof over the central Conus, amplifying and nudging it eastward. Highs will be a bit below seasonal...mostly in the mid 80s with some upper 80s across the southern tier. Mins tonight will fall to the upper 50s north...and to the lower 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 AM EDT Monday... Our coolest airmass will be in place Tuesday and Tuesday night as the upper trof axis moves across the area, perhaps accompanied by a few showers...in the mid morning to early afternoon west...and in the afternoon to evening in the east. Highs will top out in the upper 70s north to lower 80s south. With clouds departing early tomorrow night, mins will radiate down into the mid and upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Monday... The flow aloft will become increasingly zonal through the middle of the week, as a trough initially centered over the Great Lakes lifts out and a sub-tropical ridge builds over the wrn N. Atlantic. Weakly perturbed swly flow aloft, on the wrn periphery of the sub-tropical ridge, will then develop from the MS Valley to the middle Atlantic region Fri through the weekend, as an upstream trough settles across the central U.S. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will crest over the srn middle Atlantic states (NC/VA) Wed, then drift offshore and into the central N. Atlantic, where it will remain throughout the forecast period. Return flow around the high will yield gradually increasing temperatures and humidity levels, both of which will likely peak Sun- Mon. Deep dryness, characterized by precipitable water values initially between one half and three quarters of an inch on Wed, will ensure dry conditions until at least Fri, after which time the aforementioned increasing warming and moistening low levels, amidst a sharpening Appalachian-lee trough, should prove sufficient for at least scattered convection during the upcoming holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday through Friday/... As of 155 AM Sunday... A dry airmass will remain in place with VFR conditions through the next 24 hours over central NC. High cloudiness will increase this evening through tonight as a strong upper jet races across the Ohio Valley in response to gradual amplification of an upper trof as moves over the eastern CONUS. No restrictions to visibility through the period due to dryness, and winds will be generally from the northwest and light. Outlook for the remainder of the week - High pressure will produce VFR conditions through the work week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...mlm SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...mlm

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