Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240131 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 930 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF DELMARVA. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL OF NC EXTENDING WEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHERE A FEW CIRRUS WERE NOTED. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND MOVING VERY LITTLE... CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE LOWS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY 45-50 NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT... SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT NEAR 60F. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY... STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90 OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER 80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY IN THE 7 TO 10 KT RANGE... WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES (VFR). LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...RAH

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