Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 291743 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 140 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT STALLED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 140 PM MONDAY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT BEGINNIG TO RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO IT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS UNSEASONABLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE BEST FORCING FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY AND DEW POINTS BEGIN CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND THEY THEY COULD IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE... CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 4 TO 7 DEGREES MILDER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. -BLAES
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 145 AM MONDAY... ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SSE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFT/EVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN (AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS) AND COOLING ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD AID IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC BY LATE TUE AFT/EVE. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AFTER SUNSET (00-06Z WED)... INDICATING THAT A DISCONNECT MAY EXIST BETWEEN THE BEST DESTABILIZATION/FORCING...LENDING A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING. AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOW CHANCE POPS (30-40%)...HIGHEST BETWEEN 21-06Z...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE IN THE TRIAD WHERE CONVECTION COULD PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE FOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT IN ADVANCE OF THE BETTER FORCING (IN CLOSER VICINITY TO PEAK HEATING). EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST S/SE. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE TROUGH GRADUALLY RELAXES AND FLATTENS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING FROM 584DM ON TUESDAY TO 590DM BY EARLY MONDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY SCATTERED...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS SHOULD KEEP THE FRONTS CONFINED TO OUR NORTH IN THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 125 PM MONDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE KINT...KGSO AND KRDU TERMINALS. SOME SCT CUMULUS WITH BASES AROUND 6KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. FURTHER EAST...SCT- BKN CUMULUS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 6KFT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BECOME SCT THIS EVENING. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KFAY TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STAY JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL VICINITY. A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AT THE KRWI TERMINAL. OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KFAY AND KRWI. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...A PERIOD OF TWO OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTER DEVELOPS. -BLAES && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...PWB/BLAES AVIATION...BLAES

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