Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 211952 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 345 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A decaying stationary front extending across northern South Carolina into Georgia will dissipate tonight. Weak surface high pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coast will move offshore tonight and Tuesday as a lee trough develops in the Piedmont of Virginia and the Carolinas. A strong cold front will across the area on Wednesday and reach the coast on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 345 PM Monday... Latest surface analysis shows a decaying stationary front extending from coastal SC west into GA with weak surface high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A light east to southeast flow has developed at the surface and 925 hPa across central NC which contributed to an upward surge in dew points this morning before afternoon mixing knocked them back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A shear axis/convergence zone across the western Piedmont resulted in the development of a few rogue storms across the Triad early this afternoon (unfortunately around eclipse time) with other scattered storms developing in convergence across the higher terrain. Mainly clear skies with no precipitation is noted across the remainder of the RAH CWA. The threat of isolated convection will persist through most of the afternoon across the Triad and western Piedmont in a region of weak to moderate instability (MLCAPE values around 1000-1800 J/kg) and modest mid level lapse rates. An even more limited threat of convection will continue across the far southern Coastal Plain for the next few hours in southern Wayne, Sampson and Cumberland Counties. Any convection should quickly dissipate by around sunset. Mainly clear skies this evening will give way to increasing low clouds and fog across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills late tonight toward daybreak. Fair weather with mostly clear skies are expected across most of the Piedmont. Overnight lows will range between 71 and 75 degrees. -Blaes
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday... Heights aloft fall slightly on Tuesday with the approach of the northern stream trough and attendant cold front into the Ohio and Tn Valleys late Tuesday/Tuesday night. While we do see the development of pre-frontal sfc trough in the lee of the mountains Tuesday afternoon, central NC remains in a void of appreciable synoptic scale lift. And as such, convective rain chances should remain rather low and generally confined across the far SE zones in the vicinity of the sea breeze and across the western part of the state along the pre-frontal trough. One minor caveat that needs to be mentioned is a sheared vorticity centered that`s currently off the SE coast. If this feature can hold together as it moves westward over the SE states, where it will encounter the upper level anticyclone, DPVA from this feature could serve to support slightly higher/better rain chances across the southern zones. Will continue monitor will only slight chance pops for now. Loss of daytime heating should Tuesday evening should lead to dry conditions overnight as the cold front doesn`t`t arrive from the NW until late Wednesday afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 AM Monday... A rather strong cold front will progress slowly southeast and across central NC Wednesday through Thursday night, perhaps stalling along the coast as high pressure builds south down the Atlantic coast behind the front. Convection will be on the increase by Wednesday afternoon in the northwest as the front pulls out of the mountains, with highest probabilities for precipitation (60%-ish) from Wednesday evening in the west through Thursday morning east of I95. At this early juncture, seeing mixed signals in the potential for severe convection. The strongest low level forcing looks to lag the best diurnal instability, and while there will be good directional shear in the low level winds, it will be offset by weak wind speeds (i.e. ~20Kt at H85). Meanwhile, upper diffluence will be fairly strong, as the entrance region of an 80KT upper jet pulls off the mid Atlantic coast. Highs Wednesday will have time to reach the lower 90s in the south, while cloudiness and PM cool air advection will halt the diurnal cycle in the upper 80s across the north and northwest. Will have only slight chances lingering in the west Thursday morning, with PoPs in the east tapering off to slight chance early Thursday night. Thursday`s highs will cooler with lower humidity as high pressure builds in from the north...mostly lower 80s. Friday through the weekend will be below normal and dry, with highs from around 80 across the north to mid 80s across the far south. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 225 PM Monday... Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon evening hours across central NC with the exception of some isolated storms in the Triad terminals (KINT and KGSO) and perhaps near but especially southeast of the KFAY terminal. Elsewhere scattered cumulus with bases around 4kft are expected. Convection will dissipate this evening with mainly clear skies developing for the evening and early overnight hours. Another round of late night and early morning fog and stratus is expected to develop across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills region with IFR to MVFR conditions at the KRWI and KFAY terminals. Restrictions will improve by mid morning Tuesday. Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected on Tuesday. A cold front will move across the area on Wednesday providing a much greater chance of showers and storms areawide with the front moving toward the coast on Thursday on Thursday. High pressure building in behind the front will result in fair weather for friday into the weekend. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Blaes SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...Blaes

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