Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 051841 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 141 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 AM THURSDAY... LOW LEVEL COLDER AIR TAKING ITS TIME ADVECTING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS RISING TO LEVELS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECAST HIGH TEMPS SO HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. 13Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK WAVE ON THE FRONT BETWEEN ASHEVILLE AND HICKORY. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE FRONT RESUME A MORE CONSTANT SEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALONG WITH THE 13Z SFC ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE SFC CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY P-TYPE COINCIDES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 850MB 0 DEG C ISOTHERM. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS 850MB FEATURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AT 18Z...AND ALONG A ASHEBORO-DURHAM-HALIFAX LINE AT 00Z. THUS...THE CHANGEOVER TO WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR IN THE TRIAD REGION...AND BASICALLY NORTH OF THE TRIANGLE DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. EXPECT CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO THE TRIANGLE AND AREAS EAST OF THE TRIANGLE NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNSET...AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64/264 BY EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL DIMINISH WEST-TO-EAST WITH BULK OF PRECIP EAST- NE OF OUR AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 SOUTH. THIS COLD AIR WILL CAUSE ANY MOISTURE LEFT ON THE ROADS TO FREEZE INTO A THIN LAYER OF ICE WITH THE BRIDGES/OVERPASSES/RAMPS THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE THE SLICK CONDITIONS. THUS...THOUGH THE ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT...MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY (OR EXTEND THE CURRENT ADVISORY) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BLACK ICE. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL 11 AM OR NOON...THE MORNING COMMUTE MAY BE A DIFFICULT/HAZARDOUS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL BE COOL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S. CLOUDS WILL BUILD BACK IN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS WARM MOIST AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY... SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO CAUSE CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY... WHICH WOULD ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING POPS WOULD BE SPREADING BACK INTO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST WITH SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING AND RIDING NORTHEAST UP THE FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WOULD TAKE A HIT WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT ENHANCING IN SITU DAMMING...AND HIGHS WILL STALL IN THE 50S... PERHAPS A BIT LOWER IF THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES ALLOWS FOR A MORE FAVORABLE DAMMING FEATURES TO ALIGN. CONFIDENCE FALLS OFF FURTHER IN THE WED AND THU PERIODS DUE TO QUESTIONABLE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. AT THIS POINT...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 BOTH DAYS.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: LINGERING VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL CHANGE TO MVFR THEN IFR AND GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND IFR CIGS AND VISBYS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...LONGEST AT KFAY...BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. A BRIEF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SLEET AND THEN RAIN/SLEET/SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIP...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP COMES TO AN END. MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD BE VFR BY SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AND SLOWLY DECREASING IN SPEED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOOKING AHEAD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AS MORE WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL NC. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-078. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...KC

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