Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230707 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL KICK OFF ON A PLEASANT NOTE WITH UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MIGRATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TODAY. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF SUB-80 HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE WILL COOL OFF NICELY TONIGHT...WITH EARLY DECOUPLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO RADIATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN THE MIDWEST WITH ITS AXIS SLOWLY PIVOTING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE ASSUMES AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT INITIATING A WARMING TREND AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85...NEAR SEASONABLE...WITH MINS SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY... MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT. STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY... SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...MLM SHORT TERM...MLM LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...KRD/MLM

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