Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230559 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 155 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will pass by to our northwest, crossing the central Appalachians Friday night into Saturday morning, before moving off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will drag a trailing cold front through our area late Saturday through Saturday night. High pressure will follow bringing cooler and drier air into our region for next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 12z/TODAY/...
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As of 155 AM EDT Friday... A large area of showers with locally heavy rain is expected to move NE across western and northern NC through 12z/today. Since the air mass is increasingly tropical with dew points well into the 70s and PW`s 2+ inches, some locally heavy rain with rainfall of 1+ will likely occur. It appears that the heaviest rain should affect the Foothills from HKY to MWK, but may also affect parts of the NW side of the Triad including Winston-Salem. We will have categorical POP in the NW, ranging to 30 POP in the SE through 12z. Very little lightning was noted with this large area of heavy showers due to the low topped convection in the tropical air mass. We will omit thunderstorm chances at this time. Lows 68-73 NW to SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Thursday... The plume of high >2.0" PWATS over the Carolinas briefly lifts away from the area, before a secondary surge late Friday night and Saturday as the remnants of Cindy approach from the west. There will also be a void in forcing over the region on Friday as well, with only insolation and the inland retreating seabreeze boundary acting on the continued moist/muggy low-level airmass. Will have a small chance/scattered pops across the southeast, otherwise isolated. After extensive morning stratus, highs should rebound quickly in the warm sector reaching the lower 90s SE, with mid to upper 80s NW. breezy SW winds to 20-25 MPH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Thursday... The lower/mid tropospheric remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy are forecast to become increasingly sheared and will accelerate NEWD through the southern Mid-Atlantic States early Saturday as it gets picked by the westerlies ahead of the northern stream trough digging into the Central US. With the remnant circulation/PV anomaly associated with Cindy expected to pass north, so will the heavy rain/flooding threat, with QPF amounts having decreased significantly across the area. Instead, a concentrated area of warm moist advection, along the leading edge of a H8 50kt LLJ, will fuel a band of showers and thunderstorms into western NC, that will weaken as they progress eastward into the central and eastern Saturday morning as the better support aloft lifts off to the northeast. Convective re-development is then expected during the afternoon and evening, as the lead cold front moves into the area, before stalling near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Scattered in the west, to possibly numerous showers and storms in the east are possible Saturday afternoon, with a few strong to severe storms possible in the east. Additionally, with the front forecast to stall out, some localized/isolated flooding is possible as storms train along the stationary boundary. A stronger disturbance aloft in the cyclonic flow across the eastern half of the country is expected to approach and move across the area early next week, along with an associated cold front. This will give us another chance for some showers and storms on Monday into Monday night, along with a push of drier and cooler air, with highs by Tuesday possibly struggling to reach 80 across the Piedmont and some low temps dropping into the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 155 AM Friday... Showers with IFR conditions expected at KGSO and KINT over to KRDU through 12z/today, with IFR CIGS at KFAY and KRWI. Showers will end from the SW between 09z-12z but IFR conditions will linger through 15z or so. MVFR CIGS will become VFR between 18z and 21z with a gusty SW wind at 15-25kt. Looking beyond 00z Sat (Fri evening), scattered showers and thunderstorms with a gusty SW wind at 15-25kt are expected Fri evening, lasting into Sat morning, with prevailing sub-VFR conditions late Fri night through daybreak Sat. Generally VFR conditions will return Saturday; however, MVFR conditions with scattered showers and storms are expected from KRDU eastward Saturday afternoon and evening. Then a return to VFR conditions are forecast Saturday night through early next week with high pressure.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...CBL/BSD AVIATION...Badgett

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