Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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154 FXUS62 KRAH 211052 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 650 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will extend westward over the Carolina`s today into Thursday. A warm front will approach from the south on Thursday, then lift into VA on Friday. A moist southwest flow will continue across the region through late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 342 AM EDT Wednesday... The main surface front was becoming ill-defined this morning. Weak lower pressure was located in the lee of the Appalachians, with the dominate feature being the building "Bermuda" surface high. The surface winds have become light SW for many areas. As the high pressure extends westward today over NC, the surface trough will become better defined in the lee of the Appalachians. Some drying aloft (mid and upper levels) is expected today associated with the building upper heights, but the low level moisture is expected to remain high - characterized by dew points in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The best chance of showers should be early this morning. Then later this morning into the afternoon the temporary drying of the mid/upper levels combined with subtle sinking associated with the higher pressure should limit shower chances. However, the latest CAMS do depict a low chance of showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. We will carry likely POP early in the east, chance in the west. Then, reduce POP to 20-30 percent this afternoon. QPF in general, only 0.1 to 0.25 today. Areas of low stratus and fog with a chance of showers to start the day. Then, expect skies to become variably cloudy. Highs again are favored to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 342 AM EDT Wednesday... Mid and upper level moisture is forecast to increase tonight and Thursday as the mid/upper level ridge axis slowly shifts to our NE. As this occurs, a SW flow aloft and slowly falling height will bring moisture and lift back over much of the western two-thirds of NC Thursday afternoon. With stronger heating and more sun expected Thursday, highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s in most areas. MLCapes will reach 1500-2000 J/KG during peak heating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially over the western Piedmont where the proximity of the Appalachian lee surface trough will aid moisture convergence/lift. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 410 AM EDT Wednesday... Continued unsettled weather is expected for at least the first half of the medium range, possibly lingering into early next week. The main track of disturbances is generally expected to shift back north and west of the area on Friday. Thus, with the mid to upper level ridge extending northward across our region we should see a bulk of the convection steered around our area from west to north. However, the latest GFS continues to show a band of heavier precip across northern portions of our area during the morning. Thus, for now will maintain high chance/low end likely pops across northern portions of our area for Friday morning, with chance pops elsewhere. Highs Friday area expected to generally range from the upper 80s to around 90. Meanwhile, the remnants of Cindy are expected to move from the lower MS river valley into the TN valley region Friday night, before shifting eastward and across the Mid-Atlantic region. Questions region in how quickly Cindy`s remnants will move across our area. Though the latest GFS and ECMWF now show a lull in precip Friday night, before the remnants of Cindy cross central NC on Saturday (which would result in at least some severe threat). However, the influence from a northern stream trough and strength of the lingering circulation will play a key role in how much impact we see from the remnants. The latest GFS has trended drier (with the ECMWF no in yet for early next week at this time) for late weekend into early next week. Given the rather low confidence in how much push of dry air we will see behind the remnants of Cindy on Sunday, will continue to show a lingering threat of precip into early next week, especially with a deep trough developing across the eastern half of the county. Highs should be in warmest this weekend (mid/upper 80s to lower 90s) to coolest at the end of the period (Tuesday upper 70s/lower 80s). Lows will follow a similar trend, 70s at the beginning of the period to upper 50s/60s near the end. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday through Sunday/... As of 645 AM Wednesday... IFR conditions are expected to become MVFR then VFR between 15z and 18z today. Areas of rain will taper off through 15z. A return to VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and tonight. Outlook: IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS are expected again between 09Z and 13z/Thu. A return to VFR conditions in general Thursday morning, with scattered MVFR conditions in showers/storms at times late Thursday through Saturday morning. Friday through Saturday, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as the remnants of TS Cindy approach from the TN Valley late Friday and cross the region into Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett

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