Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 041912 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 310 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY... THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON TWO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXES...ONE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THE OTHER NEAR THE NW PIEDMONT. IN BETWEEN...A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT MAY PERSIST PAST SUNSET AS A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS. BETTER DCAPE AND INVERTED V SIGNATURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARBLE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS...UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY... MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY... A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE... HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL... GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY... SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT WIND GUSTS 30-40KTS IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 00Z-03Z THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NW PIEDMONT. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT INTERACT WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A RISK OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND OR LOW CLOUDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS LIKELY BY MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION..WSS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.