Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 170826 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 325 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge over the Mississippi River valley will build eastward over the Carolinas Friday into early Saturday. An upper level trough will cross the region late Saturday through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1020 PM Thursday... A band of high based stratocumulus and altocumulus extended from eastern Ohio SE across portions of north central NC late this evening. Additional cloudiness was noted upstream headed SE. The latest Hi-Res models show this band of moisture/cloudiness likely will progress east and southeast overnight, spreading across the region. The temperatures will be affected overnight. However, many NE communities are already in the 20s. We will need to lower the forecast temperatures for the NE and E into the 20s. These areas that see an increase in clouds after midnight will also see the temperatures stabilize or rise a few degrees. Otherwise, the latest data/guidance which suggests minimal change to the previous thinking. Lows 30-35 expected, with 20s NE of RDU. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 115 PM Thursday... Weak height rises will continue on Friday as a strong ridge builds toward the eastern US, ahead of an upper low lifting out of the southwest US. Other than some high clouds approaching late Friday night, no sensible weather is expected, with a warming southwest wind developing and guidance in good agreement on upper 50s to mid 60s for high. Lows in the mid to upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 325 AM Friday... Strong subsidence in the wake of the exiting trough will yield abrupt west-east clearing by late morning/early afternoon Sunday with a mild surface high building in from the west. Highs 70 to 75. Lows in the 40s. The southern stream is forecast to remain active with a vigorous Pacific upper trough/closed low forecast to move slowly east across the southern Conus, with most recent runs of the GFS and EC tracking the upper low across Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico during the mid week period. Such a solution/track this far south will mean very little if any precip for central NC Wednesday and Thursday, with bulk of rainfall staying across the Deep South/Gulf Coast Region. Instead, the main story will be the continuation of mild temperatures underneath the amplifying downstream shortwave ridge progged to move over the region through the mid week period. Expect daytime highs a good 12 to 5 degrees above normal. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 650 PM Thursday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 24 hour TAF period, high confidence, as surface high pressure slides across the Southeast U.S. This will allow northwesterly winds this evening to become light and variable overnight, before becoming southwesterly on Friday, with possibly some gusts of up to 20 mph. Otherwise, we will see some mid and high clouds cross the area over night, with mostly sunny skies expected by mid Friday morning onward. Outlook: Aside from a small potential for isolated showers assoc/w an upper level disturbance crossing the area Sat night, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...BSD

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