Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 210702 AFDRAH FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY... DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...WITH FROPA OCCURRING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE... WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN VA AND THE DELMARVA IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE MORE VIGOROUS DPVA ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH TONIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT (22-05Z) WHEN ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN THE MID 60S (64-67F) GIVEN FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. -VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING (00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S... WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES). FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: WITH ONE EXCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AT THE RWI TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 09-10Z AS THE COASTAL LOW GAINS LATITUDE AND A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS TOWARD THE COAST FROM THE NW. NNW/NW WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...VINCENT

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