Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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994 FXUS62 KRAH 190024 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 725 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will sweep east across the area late tonight. Chilly high pressure will return for Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 705 PM Saturday... Minor adjustment made to the timing of PoPs across central NC based on observed radar trends and how this is verifying compared to the HRRR and convective allowing models presentation. Strong cold front currently crossing the lower OH Valley and the Tennessee Valley with a band of convection stretching from eastern Great Lakes southwestward into Mississippi. This front being propelled east-se by a s/w crossing the Great Lake,s and projected to lift northeast into southern New England. Since bulk of upper support lifting well north of our region, better forcing will be found with the low level front. However, this front will be encountering an atmosphere lacking moisture and instability compared to the air mass its currently crossing. Thus, expect the band of convection to gradually weaken in intensity as it crosses the mountains late this evening, and reach the Triad region after midnight (possibly closer to 2 AM). The increasing cloud cover and a steady breezy sly wind will cause evening temperatures to hold steady or possibly slowly rise through midnight-2 AM. The cold front and the narrow band of showers accompanying it should exit our coastal plain counties by sunrise. Clearing skies will occur over the NW piedmont by 4-5 AM, possibly reaching the highway 1 corridor by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 301 PM Saturday... Skies will be clear quickly early Sunday morning. The warm start to the day will partly offset the CAA. However, highs will still reach the mid 50s to mid 60s NW to SE. NW winds at 10-20 mph are expected with gusts to 25 mph. Winds will be diminishing Sunday evening and night. Clear skies will bring lows in the lower to mid 30s with some upper 20s in the northern Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 205 PM Saturday... Mid level ridging will keep the area rain-free for Monday into early part of Tuesday. From later Tuesday into Friday a trough will dominate the pattern over the eastern US bringing a chance for some rain to the local area. Best chances for rain will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and again Thursday into Thursday night as waves of low pressure move from the Gulf of Mexico across Florida to off the southeast coast. Temperatures Thursday night will drop into the 30s but confidence is very low for frozen precipitation to mix in with any rainfall. A rather flat west to east flow develops Friday night and Saturday with dry and seasonable weather for central North Carolina. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday through Thursday/... As of 725 PM Saturday... VFR parameters across central NC early this evening will giveway to a period of MVFR parameters as a cold front crosses the region well after midnight. Breezy sly winds ahead of the front will gusts between 20-27kts at most locations through 06Z, then gradually decrease. The threat for showers will increase in vicinity of the Triad terminals between 04Z-06Z, and in vicinity of KRDU and KFAY between 07Z-09Z. In proximity of KRWI, the threat for a shower or two will be greatest between 09Z-12Z. In addition to the showers, ceilings will briefly lower into the MVFR range with bulk of ceilings hovering around 3000ft, though a period of 1500 ft ceilings may occur along and behind the front. NW winds behind the sfc cold front will usher a drier, more stable air mass into central NC. This will lead to clearing skies NW-SE, with the clearing trend occurring in the Triad between 09-10Z, reaching KRDU by 12Z. Skies are expected to quickly clear at KFAY and KRWI between 12Z-14Z. Brisk nw winds will occur after daybreak with gusts 18-23kts anticipated. The winds will gradually subside during the afternoon. VFR conditions Sunday through Monday. The period Tuesday through Thanksgiving Day will feature a few opportunities for adverse aviation conditions in the form of MVFR/IFR ceilings and areas of light rain. This potential looks highest from Wednesday through Thursday night. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Franklin AVIATION...WSS

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