


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --548 FXUS62 KRAH 100104 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 904 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Disturbances in unseasonably moist, southwesterly flow aloft will interact with a surface trough over the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms has developed along the northern North Carolina mountains as of early afternoon. This cluster is expected to expand farther south and continue to move east into the central portion of the state. There are two primary threats, both of importance. One is the flash flooding threat - a flood watch is in effect until 2am Thursday across much of the western half of the forecast area, the area most impacted by Chantal over the weekend. WPC has upgraded some northern portions of the flood watch area to a moderate (level 3 of 4) risk for flash flooding, a risk level that is not often seen across central North Carolina. The rest of the area is under a slight (level 2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. The second threat is severe weather. This is somewhat coincident with the flash flooding threat spatially, highlighting western counties more than eastern counties. However, the threat categories are not as high - western counties are in a slight (level 2 of 5) risk while eastern counties are in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. The thunderstorm threat will be the greatest during the late afternoon and early evening hours, with the primary threat coming from damaging winds. Both threats should become minimal after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... * There is a Slight Risk of both excessive rainfall and severe storms for much of central NC on Thu, with a Marginal Risk elsewhere across the area. Bermuda high pressure will continue ridging wsw to across FL through Thu night. A northern stream s/w tracking slowly ewd across srn Quebec, Canada while the attendant trough moves ewd across the Appalachians. Both the s/w and the trough should lift newd late Thu night, while a weak s/w lingers over the Carolinas/mid-Atlantic. At the surface, relatively low pressure will prevail across much of central NC through Thu eve, then lift newd across the mid-Atlantic Thu night. Still expect a warm, moist, unstable airmass over the area, with showers and storms expected, mainly along differential heating boundaries and leftover outflows from todays storms. The primary weather concerns will again be heavy rainfall/flooding and isolated damaging wind gusts. There is a Slight Risk (west) to Marginal Risk (east) of severe storms, and a Slight Risk (northwest 2 thirds) and Marginal Risk (southeast) for excessive rainfall. Impacts will be greatest over areas that were hardest hit by Chantal and those who receive heavy rainfall with todays storms. As for temperatures, highs should generally be in the mid to upper 80s, while lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM Wednesday... * There is a Marginal Risk for both excessive rainfall and severe storms on Friday. Aloft, the weak wave over the area on Fri should slowly drift newd out of the area Fri night. High pressure may briefly build back in on Sat and Sun. A northern stream s/w will swing ewd from the northern Plains to the Northeast/southeast Canada from Sat to Mon. While high pressure may hold across the area, the s/w trough could clip central NC on Sun. The longwave trough may finally extend swwd through and slip sewd into central NC early-mid next week. The surface pattern will largely remain the same as it has been, with relative low pressure/trough over the area. With little change in airmass, expect continued aft/eve convection each day through the extended forecast period, with greater coverage/intensity coincident with s/w passages aloft and slightly less coverage/intensity when the high aloft ridges over the area. Highs should generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s, while lows in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 900 PM Wednesday... Slow-moving/backbuilding convection will persist over the Piedmont for much of the evening, possibly into the overnight; and some will probably reach RWI between 03-04Z and linger for a few hours thereafter. The bulk of the convection will likely remain to the northwest of FAY. Areas of IFR-MVFR ceilings are likely to redevelop overnight, persist through mid-morning Thu, then lift through MVFR and scatter to VFR through late morning to midday. Scattered to locally numerous convection will probably redevelop with daytime heating of an unseasonably moist airmass Thu afternoon-evening. Outlook: Another day of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms appear likely for Friday, with coverage more scattered Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. In addition, considering the early morning fog/stratus that occurred this morning and that is expected again Thursday morning, early morning restrictions could continue through the next several days with no change in air mass.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>010-021>025-038>040- 073>076-083>086. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...KCP LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...MWS/Green