Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230647 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 247 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build over the SE US today and tonight. This high will weaken as shift south of the area on Monday, in advance of a dry cold front moving through the area Monday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Sunday... In the wake of the upper low lifting northeast into eastern Canada, rising heights aloft and associated strong subsidence warming will allow for wall-to-wall sunshine. Surface High pressure centered over the Lower MS Valley this morning will shift east and weaken across the SE US this afternoon and tonight as a weak sfc trough develops in the lee of the Appalachians. Resultant low-level swly flow will help to bolster temps slightly, with uniform afternoon temps warming into the upper 60s/near 70, very close to the 30-yr average for late October. Not as chilly tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Sunday... A series of shortwaves diving through the back-side of the upper low over eastern Canada and attendant upper level trough extending across the eastern US will push a dry cold front through the area late Monday afternoon/evening. In fact, west-northwesterly downslope flow preceding the moisture-starved front will make it hard-pressed for even a few clouds to accompany the front. As such, we will see another day of unlimited sunshine with temperatures warming into the mid to to upper 70s(south)ahead of the front Monday afternoon. Modest CAA Monday evening/night on the leading edge of Canadian high pressure building into the area from the NW will support lows in the lower 40s north to mid/upper 40s south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 PM Saturday... An upper level trough will exit the east coast early this week and a dry cold font will pass through Monday night leaving central NC on the front side of an upper level ridge. This will keep temperatures warm on Monday with highs in the mid 70s but that will quickly change as surface high pressure builds out of Canada keeping conditions cool and dry with highs topping out in the 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Northwesterly flow could be breezy at times during the first couple days of the work week but gusts should top out around 15-20 mph but not much higher. The coolest night during this period would be Tuesday night when temperatures drop into the low 40s but frost should not be a threat. The ridge axis moves through by Thursday morning and a warming trend will ensue for the end of the week with the main weather feature being a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region which is accompanied by a deepening upper trough and a surface cold front that will approach the Carolinas late in the week. Model solutions differ on the timing and impacts at this time so will carry slight chance pops starting Thursday through Friday. Highs during this period will climb back into the low 70s with lows in the lower 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 135 AM Saturday... Rising heights aloft and associated strong subsidence in the wake of the trough lifting northeast out of the region, while surface high over the lower MS Valley builds east over the Southeast will support a continuation dry VFR conditions through the period. Light and variable winds overnight will become swly during the day on Sunday as a weak surface trough develops in the lee of the mtns. Looking Ahead: Dry VFR conditions are expected to dominate through Wednesday. The next chance for sub-VFR ceilings will arrive Thursday afternoon as a cold front and attendant showers approach the area from the west. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...BS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.