Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241340 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 935 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure will hold over the area today. A cold front will move south through the area late tonight and early Sunday. The front will move back northward as a warm front Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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As of 930 AM Saturday... The fog has burned off over the Coastal Plain. Mostly sunny skies are expected for the rest of the day as high pressure remains over the region. Highs are expected to top out in the 87-92 range, partly tempered by the wet ground in the east, and elevated by very dry ground over the western Piedmont. Thicknesses especially off the warmest guidance (European) suggest highs in the lower 90s across many areas. However, highs are anticipated to top out a bit lower than guidance in the east and south where the soil moisture is high, and should be hottest in the southwest Piedmont where the ground is very dry. Winds will be light and variable. The main cold front is located over northern Ohio to Maryland this morning. This front will not make it into northern North Carolina until tonight. The front will most likely be a dry one with little mid/upper moisture in play.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 325 AM Saturday... Tonight: Warm conditions will hold through the evening, then the backdoor front will push southward into NE NC overnight, propelled by cool dense high pressure to the north and flow around a strong vortex over SE Canada. Plenty of low stratus is currently found near and north of this front, and see no reason why this won`t hold as the front drops into NC. Models agree on light precip near the front with considerable low level moisture pooling taking place, and will hold onto low chance pops over the NE and far N CWA tonight, with low QPF overall given the shallow nature of the incoming moisture. Lows in the mid-upper 60s. -GIH The backdoor front should continue its southward trek through NC Sun morning, with thick low stratus enveloping the forecast area as a cool stable air mass builds in from the north. Overrunning is initially weak but becomes more robust late in the day and into Sun night, especially over the southern and western CWA where the 295-305K moist upglide is strongest. Expect very low chances of patchy light rain or drizzle in the morning, followed by better (but still low) pops across the southern and western CWA with the strengthening upglide atop the incoming cool stable wedge. With minimal sunshine over much of the area and falling thicknesses, have shaved a couple of degrees off forecast highs, going with a range of mid 70s north to lower-mid 80s south. Variably to mostly cloudy skies will hold through Sun night as the ridge axis continues to extend southward into the area with the ridge itself shifting slowly eastward over the Northeast states. Lows from the lower 60s NE to mid-upper 60s SW. -GIH
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 320 AM Saturday... Model solutions are very much in step for the beginning of the long term with surface high pressure over New England heading out to sea on Monday and a deep low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes bringing a front over the Appalachians which will approach the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. The best vorticity and jet dynamics will remain well to the north with this system. Couple that with nocturnal timing and there is not a lot going for the system as far as any kind of deep convection. Despite that, rain showers and some thunderstorms will be possible Monday night and Tuesday. There is some debate over how quickly the front will move through the area, so will keep slight chance pops in for the east through Wednesday but most of the forecast area should start to clear out by Tuesday night. Highs near 80 degrees Monday and Tuesday, dropping into the upper 70s Wednesday. Lows in the 60s. After Wednesday, the forecast is expected to be generally dry and cool for Thursday and Friday. There is a caveat, however, that the latest run of the ECMWF model has put a new wrinkle in the forecast and that is a strong upper low becoming cutoff from the main flow and sinking southward along the NC/TN border. If this were to happen, the dynamic support would be enough to bring precipitation into the region late in the week, however this is an anomalous scenario at this point so we will watch it but for now have decided to stay with the dry and cool forecast which will feature highs in the mid to upper 70s with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 935 AM Saturday... VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening. The main cold front to the north is not expected to arrive until late tonight. A NE flow will prevail behind the front later tonight. The probability of low CIGS in the LIFR range will increase after the front late tonight. MVRF fog will be likely before the front, with LIFR to IFR fog at KRWI. Looking beyond 12z/SUNDAY morning, sub-VFR cigs (IFR or LIFR) will spread over all of central NC through daybreak as the backdoor front progresses toward the SSW through the area. Low CIGS will trend to MVFR during SUNDAY afternoon especially over the west and south at INT/GSO/FAY. MVFR conditions are expected elsewhere.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...Badgett

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