Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 252349 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 649 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY... IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND TRANQUIL WEATHER. AS THE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT...THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH CALM WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS...PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S (TYPICAL RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS) TO LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 252 PM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED TRANQUIL AND FAIRLY MILD WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES (COMPARED TO TODAY) WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH THE HIGH STARTING TO SLIP OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 30S EXPECTED. SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT QUICKLY OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNDER A SMATTERING OF CIRRUS CLOUDS...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ON THE MILD SIDE...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NEAR 60 NW TO LOWER-MID 60S SE. SATURDAY NIGHT: STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WARM MOIST ADVECTION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL RESULT IN TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AOA DAYBREAK. LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 252 PM THURSDAY... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: LEFT BEHIND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE SATURDAY WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS-LOWER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY...NEARLY SHEARED APART BY THE TIME IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT WAVY FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE AREA...PROGGED TO SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AND TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT DRIVES THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SURGE OF STRONG WAA WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3-1.6" COUPLED WITH DPVA FROM S/W DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE A POSSIBLE LULL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH RENEWED LIFT/FORCING ARRIVING AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE DRASTICALLY AFTER 18Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT MID-LEVEL DRYING...AS FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL COOL TEMPS SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED NORTH- SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TUESDAY-THURSDAY: UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW US. AN EXPANSIVE 1050MB ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING A SHOT OF COLD AIR DOWN THE NATIONS MID- SECTION...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS COLD AIRMASS THAT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 650 PM THURSDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE CALM AND THEN PICK UP TO 3 OR 4 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE WITH DIRECTION GENERALLY STARTING OUT AS NORTHERLY BUT THEN SWITCHING TO SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM: THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...KRD/CBL LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...ELLIS

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