Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 170040 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 840 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak frontal boundary tied to a surface low will lift northeast overnight tonight. A cold front will cross the region late Sunday, bringing cooler air for the beginning of next week, including a frost and freeze potential Monday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 840 PM Saturday... The evening surface analysis shows a stalled and ill-defined surface frontal boundary over central SC, stretching southwest into central GA and portions of AL. A pair of surface lows were also evident, though weak, over western NC and eastern SC. Model guidance suggests the two surface lows tracking ENE overnight, with associated low- level WAA and moisture transport mainly along/east of US-1 and the Coastal Plain. Dewpoints upstream over eastern SC are in the upper 50s to low 60s and guidance supports these advecting into our eastern zones overnight into early Sun. Satellite imagery reveals low stratus in the 800 to 1500 ft range tied to the low-level WAA and moist advection concentrated in the lowest few kft. While we cannot rule out some drizzle/sprinkles or light spotty rain along and east-northeast of the Triangle, most areas will be dry with little moisture above 4 kft. The best chance looks to be over the northern Coastal Plain where the GFS shows some weak low-level frontogenesis with the low moving NE. Most of the guidance suggests the low stratus, but cannot rule out some patchy fog, especially over the Coastal Plain from Goldsboro to Rocky Mount given increasing dewpoints. Lows tonight will be well above normal upper 40s to 50 NW to low/mid 50s in the east.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Saturday... Aloft, a broad trough, encompassing much of the northeast quadrant of the CONUS, will amplify southward through the MS Valley on Sun, while a closed low over the Desert Southwest remains cutoff from it. While central NC will initially be under westerly flow, on the southern periphery of the trough, as the trough amplifies, the flow will become more southwesterly, advecting warm, moist air into the eastern half of NC from the Gulf of Mexico. A disturbance will track eastward through the Southeast, then northeast through the Carolinas Sun/Sun night. At the surface, the initial front and trough will shift offshore as another trough develops over central NC on Sun ahead of a reinforcing cold front, both of which should move through the area Sun night. Expect rain along the initial front as the disturbances tracks through the Southeast US. There is still some uncertainty with exactly how far north precipitation will reach, but for now best chances are expected over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. As the disturbance moves away from the area Sun eve/night, the reinforcing cold front will finally surge through the area, with cool, dry air advecting into the area in its wake. Temperatures could be tricky, but for now expect upper 60s NW to possibly mid 70s SE. Lows expected to bottom out in the low 40s NW to low 50s SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 PM Saturday... Aloft, a closed, cutoff low will sit over the Desert Southwest through at least Tue. To the east, the trough will continue to amplify over the MS Valley and swing eastward and through the East Coast Mon/Mon night, while the parent sits over Quebec, with several s/w lows moving counterclockwise around it. As the initial trough shifts offshore, a couple of the northern stream shortwaves within the trough will move southeast through the Great Lakes and OH Valley Tue/Tue night. Meanwhile to the west, the closed, cutoff low over the Desert Southwest will finally open up and begin ejecting eastward Tue night/Wed. While the upper trough will amplify some through the Northeast US, it should remain fairly broad over NC Wed/Wed night. As the low moves eastward through the Plains and into the MS Valley Wed night/Thu, it should begin pushing the northward and away from central NC. Advection of Gulf moisture into the s/w low will increase Thu night as it moves through the MS Valley. It will then continue eastward through the Deep South and Southeast Fri/Fri night, settling just off the Southeast US coast on Sat. At the surface, the Arctic high diving south out of Canada will settle over the southern Plains/lower MS Valley Mon night/Tue, then become elongated W-E through the Deep South and Southeast through mid-week. While the coldest air associated with the high may remain well to the north and to the west of the mtns, sufficient cold air should filter into central NC behind the cold front for Mon/Mon night. It remains a bit unclear how much the airmass may modify on Tue/Tue night, and while the surface flow should gradually become more southerly, the cold air should linger into Tue/Tue night. A low should swing through the Great Lakes, OH Valley and northern mid- Atlantic Tue/Wed, with a Piedmont trough developing and strengthening over NC Wed, then progressing southeastward and offshore as a cold front moves through Wed night. Yet another Arctic high will move ESE through central Canada and into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes Wed/Thu, however the models cannot agree on how far south the coldest air will progress as the high continues eastward through southern Canada, but there is the potential for a late-season CAD to set up on Fri. The medium-range models both suggest a low could develop invof FL Fri/Fri night, but there is a great deal of uncertainty beyond that. The forecast should largely remain dry through most of the work- week, with chances for precipitation increasing Fri/Sat depending on what happens with the low off the Southeast US coast. Temperatures should be below normal Mon/Tue, near to slightly above normal Wed/Thu, then dropping back below normal again Fri/Sat. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 815 PM Saturday... VFR conditions will continue across the region through this evening. An area of low stratus will then develop and move into the Sandhills, NE Piedmont, and Coastal Plain (including FAY, RDU and RWI) beginning after midnight. Areas around FAY will likely be affected by it first before it moves north and east into the rest of that area overnight. Ceilings at least as low as MVFR are likely, and even some periods of IFR and LIFR are possible, with the best chance at RWI. Some patchy mist/fog with associated MVFR or IFR visibilities also can`t be ruled out. Farther NW including at INT and GSO, conditions will stay VFR. The low stratus and fog will end at RWI by mid-morning, and likely earlier than that around RDU and FAY. VFR conditions will prevail everywhere for the rest of the day with mid and high clouds moving in from west to east. An isolated light shower can`t be ruled out in the SE (including FAY) during the afternoon. Winds will switch to a westerly direction tomorrow and possibly gust to 15-20 kts, especially at INT and GSO. Looking beyond 00Z Monday: A period of light rain is possible in the SE on Sunday night, particularly at FAY, but conditions should stay VFR. Breezy W to NW winds will develop late Monday into Tuesday, but winds have been trending lower, with only 20-25 kt gusts expected. VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kren NEAR TERM...Kren SHORT TERM...KCP LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...Danco/JJT

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