Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 211658 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1258 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1258 PM MONDAY... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST. UNDER THE RIDGE... WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOWS 45-50 (COOLEST NE RURAL AREAS).
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 1258 PM MONDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST OFF THE BLUE RIDGE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS OUR REGION DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON (ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT). HOWEVER... WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT... MEAN WESTERLY FLOW... LIMITED INSTABILITY (SURFACE DEW POINT RECOVERY ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S)... AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM OF THE GENERAL VARIETY. QPF OF LESS THAN 0.25 OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. SW SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE WITH MIXING TO 10-20 MPH... WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT SLIPS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL... SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY SUNNY... THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED NW... TO AROUND 80-82 OR SO ELSEWHERE. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME NW AND DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS LATE. TURNING COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 305 AM MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND GIVE WAY TO MODERATING RETURN FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S THURSDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...THOUGH THIS TIME WITH THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL AGAIN BE QUESTIONABLE AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH POPS AS EARLY AS 12-15Z ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BUILDS A RIDGE QUICKLY TOWARD THE EASTERN US. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...PREFER TO STAY THE COURSE WITH THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 1258 PM MONDAY... VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY EVENING. GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 18Z/22Z KINT/KGSO... AND BETWEEN 20Z/23Z KRDU/KRWI/KFAY... WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONLY 15-20 PERCENT... SO WILL OMIT FROM TAF. RATHER GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BECOME W AT 12- 20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT BETWEEN 17Z-23Z... THEN NW 10-15KT. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING NNW BREEZES FROM 10KT-15KT TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED-FRI.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...BADGETT

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