Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230137 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 930 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring much cooler and drier air to the region through the weekend. Another cold front is forecast to move through the state Monday, bringing additional cool and dry air. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 930 PM Saturday... We will continue undercut statistical guidance for lows overnight. Mixing just above the boundary layer (currently NW at 20-25kt) may be the only real thing that helps keep the temperatures from falling solidly into the mid 30s. A few areas may still be able to go to calm and remain there overnight (cold air drainage into the lower lying areas - allowing the development of scattered light frost. The vast majority of our colder Piedmont region should fall into the 35- 40 range keeping the frost threat to a minimum. We will keep the same wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook indicating that a killing frost/freeze is not anticipated with high confidence (80+ percent). There is a chance (50-60 percent) of scattered light frost, mainly in the rural low-lying or normally colder areas. Urban areas of the Piedmont along with the Coastal Plain should see lows near 40 with a high confidence of no frost. No advisories will be issued tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM Saturday... West-northwesterly flow, 20-30kt at 850mb, ahead of a frontal zone dropping backdoor into the Mid-Atlantic States, will result in warmer temps on Sunday. Guidance seems a little too cool based on dry adiabatic mixing between 925mb and 850mb, though the trend in guidance has been slowly upward in the past few runs. Expect highs of 68- 72. Not as cold on Sunday night with a light wind, 45-49 && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 225 PM Saturday... An upper level trough will exit the east coast early this week and a dry cold font will pass through Monday night leaving central NC on the front side of an upper level ridge. This will keep temperatures warm on Monday with highs in the mid 70s but that will quickly change as surface high pressure builds out of Canada keeping conditions cool and dry with highs topping out in the 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Northwesterly flow could be breezy at times during the first couple days of the work week but gusts should top out around 15-20 mph but not much higher. The coolest night during this period would be Tuesday night when temperatures drop into the low 40s but frost should not be a threat. The ridge axis moves through by Thursday morning and a warming trend will ensue for the end of the week with the main weather feature being a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region which is accompanied by a deepening upper trough and a surface cold front that will approach the Carolinas late in the week. Model solutions differ on the timing and impacts at this time so will carry slight chance pops starting Thursday through Friday. Highs during this period will climb back into the low 70s with lows in the lower 50s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 743 PM Saturday... Strong subsidence aloft in the wake of the trough lifting out of the region while surface ridge axis extends into the area from the west will support a continuation dry VFR conditions through the period. Winds will diminish this evening as surface high pressure builds in from the west/southwest. Looking Ahead: Dry VFR conditions are expected to dominate through Wednesday. The next chance for sub-VFR ceilings will arrive Thursday afternoon as a cold front and attendant showers approach from the west. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett/BS SHORT TERM...BS LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...BS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.