Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 161923 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 223 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure build into NC from the northwest through Friday, before moving offshore Friday night. A warm southwest flow will overspread the area Saturday, ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Saturday night. Chilly high pressure will return for Sunday through Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 223 PM Thursday... Sunny and mild conditions will give way to a clear sky tonight as high pressure builds in later tonight. A dry cold front will move through late afternoon and early this evening. Associated brief CAA behind the front this evening will keep the surface winds stirring. Later tonight the winds will become calm as the high pressure over the upper Midwest approaches. Lows tonight generally in the mid 30s expected, with typical variation in the urban and rural areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 223 PM Thursday... Surface high pressure will build overhead Friday into Friday evening, lingering over the Coastal Plain Friday night. Very dry air will continue with the mid/upper ridge overhead through late Friday. Then, expect increasing high thin clouds Friday night but likely remaining scattered and thin enough not to impede good radiational cooling again. Highs generally 55-62, with lows in the 30s. Warmest SW and coolest N-NE zones. Most of the WAA at the surface will hold off until after sunrise Saturday leaving nearly calm near surface winds increasing to the SW at 10 mph late in the NW.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM Thursday... No changes made to longer range forecast. Models continue to highlight a trough and surface low moving across the Great Lakes Saturday and Sunday with its associated surface front racing east across North Carolina Saturday night. Surface winds will be gusty as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph by Saturday afternoon. The front will spill over the mountains Saturday afternoon, with likely PoPs in the western Piedmont early Saturday night. These likely PoPs will translate quickly across central NC, reaching the Coastal Plain after midnight before ending towards sunrise Sunday. Cool and dry high pressure will settle into the area Sunday, with rather low amplitude upper troffing lingering Sunday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Monday/...
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As of 140 PM Thursday... VFR conditions are forecast with high confidence this afternoon through tonight. A few cirrus expected, mainly over western NC this afternoon. Surface winds will be westerly and shift to the northwest 10-15kt later this afternoon and evening, becoming calm tonight. Looking beyond 12z Fri, VFR conditions are likely through Sat. SW winds will increase to 15-25kt on Saturday afternoon into the evening ahead of the approaching cold front. MVFR CIGS and VSBYS are expected Sat evening/Sat night as a cold front moves through with a 4-5 hour period of showers. VFR conditions will return Sun through Mon as high pressure builds in.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...mlm/Franklin AVIATION...Badgett

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