Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251905 RRA AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will push across the region this afternoon and move offshore by early evening. High pressure will build into the area tonight and Sunday. A warm front will approach from the south late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1020 AM SATURDAY... Deepening cyclone the Upper Great Lakes will lift north into Ontario and Quebec, with associated strong mid-upper trough over the OH and TN Valleys progress eastward into the Mid-Atlantic States today. Attendant cold front over the mtns this morning will push east across central NC this afternoon and will move offshore by the evening. Temperatures will approach record territory once again, especially across the south-southeastern tier where it will remain mostly dry. Highs ranging from mid 70s NW to lower 80s SE. It will be breezy as well, with sustained winds of 15 to 18 kts, gusting to 25 to 30kts. With the better dynamics and deeper moisture moving off to the north, the broken line of showers and thunderstorms currently moving off the southern Appalachians of Va and NC has significantly weaken over the past several hours. However, expect a resurgence in convection over the central-eastern Piedmont and into the northern Coastal Plain during the early to mid afternoon hours owing to weak to moderate destabilization(MLCAPE 500-1000 J/Kg)in response to steep low-level lapse rates and mid-level lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.50 C/Km, left behind by the EML that pushed through the area overnight/earlier this morning. Impressive 50 to 60kts of unidirectional shear, coupled with inverted-V sounding profiles and DCape values of 1000 to 1200 J/Kg from the entrainment of dry air aloft will make it possible for an isolated severe storm to produce damaging straight line winds across the northern/northeastern tier, with even 40 to 50 mph winds possible in the heaviest shower. Convection should be exiting the area by 00z, strong post-frontal dry cold air advection Friday evening/night will result in abrupt clearing and seasonable overnight lows in the lower 30s NW to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 407 AM SATURDAY... High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather Sunday and Sunday night. Highs Sunday should reach the 55-62 range, with lows in the 30s. Scattered frost is possible, mainly in rural and low lying areas. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM Saturday... After the brief return to near normal high temperatures on Sunday, we will have a progressive warmup back into the 70s through midweek as high pressure moves offshore and southwest flow ensues. Moisture will be on the rise, as will cloud coverage and the chance of rain through the midweek period. Showers are expected as early as Monday night in the west as a weak upper disturbance lifts northeast in prevailing southwest flow aloft. It`s hard to find a really confident feature that might enhance coverage Tuesday night through Wednesday but we will be in the warm moist airmass with potential for any passing weak impulse to kick off spotty showers. Will maintain generally uniform low chance PoPs across the area pending later model resolution of these impulses. Temps will be rebounding on Monday into the 60s...with low to mid 70s on Tuesday and mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. A cold front driven by a rather strong shortwave moving into the Ohio valley will provide a focus for a line of convection Wednesday night in the west...with the convection moving east rapidly and offshore by Thursday evening. The convection will be east of central NC by early afternoon. This timing is not ideal to benefit from maximized diurnal instability, but strong upper diffluence and the low level convergence with a 50+ knot h85 jet will be sufficient for inclusion of at least a modest chance of thunderstorms at this point. Highs Thursday will be hampered by the onset of cold air advection fairly early in the day, with western areas topping out in the upper 50s...while the southeast might see some mid 60s. Dry weather and a cooler airmass will be in place Friday and Saturday, with highs both days mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1242 PM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: A cold front an associated broken band of showers and storms that is approaching the Triad at this time, will cross the area through 00z. Weak to moderate buoyancy in place across central NC could allow in an uptick in convection as it moves through the area, with best coverage expected across the northern terminals. A brief period of sub-VFR conditions could accompany the stronger convection with strong wind gust as high as 40 to 45 kts possible. SWLY winds of 15 to 20 kts with gusts of up 25 to 30 kts will be frequent ahead of the cold front, with slightly weaker post-frontal wind gusts from the NW into the early evening. Winds will decrease to around 7 to 13 mph range between 03 to 06z with VFR dominating Sunday as cooler high pressure builds over the area. Outlook: The next chance for sub-VFR conditions will be Mon night, lasting through Tue night and perhaps into Wed, as southwest flow brings in low level moisture and an increased risk for showers, as well low stratus and fog, especially dusk through dawn. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for February 25: Greensboro: 81 (1930) Raleigh: 82 (1930) Fayetteville: 85 (1930) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...CBL CLIMATE...Badgett

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