Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 010705 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 305 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY... TODAY... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WEAK/NEAR CALM SURFACE FLOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THE PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THUS WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN THIS REGION TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...A NEARLY SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL AID TO MAINTAIN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LONGER...POSSIBLY UNTIL 11 AM OR A LITTLE LATER IN A FEW SPOTS. A FEW SITES IN THE FORECAST REGION ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OR CONCENTRATED OVER A FEW COUNTIES...THEN WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. LATER TODAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK/STALLED SURFACE TROUGH IN VICINITY OR JUST EAST OF I-95 AND AIDED BY AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU DECK. MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING...AND WHEN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEST-SW WHERE THE SUN SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT SOONER. IF LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MAY BE MORE COMMON THAN UPPER 80S/90. MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S-AROUND 90. TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY... WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90- LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS... POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1258 AM TUESDAY... THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z-18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...WSS

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