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954
FXUS62 KRAH 101413
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1010 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moving across the state today will bring a chance for
showers and storms, especially south and east of the Triangle area,
with severe weather possible in our southeast sections. Behind this
front, mostly dry weather is expected with lower humidity and more
seasonable temperatures over the weekend and into Monday. The next
storm system will bring high rain chances Tuesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1010 AM Friday...

Forecast tweaks this morning focused on slight spatial and timing
adjustments to hourly precip chances today into the evening. 12z
surface analysis shows a low E off the tip of the Delmarva with a
trailing trough into NE NC, a second trough (dewpoint discontinuity
with shift of weak winds) along the NC Foothills into N GA, with the
actual synoptic cold front still back across central and SW VA, E TN
and N AL/MS. RAP-based mesoanalyses of SBCAPE and the 12z GSO
sounding show well the shallow surface-based stable layer over the
area (contributing to persistent stratus in our SW) with another
inversion around 800 mb, topped by some decently steep (7.0-7.5
C/km) lapse rates through the mid levels that are also noted
upstream. With heating expected to erode the surface stability,
we`re still expecting convection to develop, grow upscale and become
organized into a W-E then WSW-ENE line, starting first in our SW
then spreading across our SE third (where dewpoints will be around
60 or higher) through the afternoon before exiting by mid evening. A
wrench in this scenario is the mature MCS to our S over SE GA and N
FL. The recent CAM runs did not depict the southern bowing portion
racing so far eastward, currently off the SAV coast while most
models have the front edge of this complex about 150-200 m slower/
further W. This system, and its effects on the regional wind field
through ageostrophic adjustments, may play into the evolution and
strength of storms further N over our area, as low level jetting
into our SE could be disrupted, although this actually seems less
likely based on the faster MCS movement, allowing time for air mass
and pressure field recovery in its wake as heating takes place. As
the surface trough shifts ESE today, lower dewpoints will spread
into much of the Piedmont and W Sandhills, limiting the northward
extent of deep surface-rooted convection. Have adjusted pops and
weather to depict lower chances of mainly just showers over the N
Piedmont, transitioning to good chance to likely pops for showers
and storms, some possibly strong to severe across our far S and SE,
peaking in the late afternoon then shifting to our SE in the
early/mid evening. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. -GIH

Earlier discussion from 250 AM: Low pressure is currently over
southeastern Virginia with a cold front extending back to the west-
southwest. There is not a huge temperature gradient along the front,
but there is about a 10 degree spread in the dewpoint. The parent
low will continue to head offshore, with a wave along the cold front
expected to be enhanced during the daytime by an upper level
shortwave. While the forecast still calls for a dry morning, have
bumped up pops to likely across southeastern counties, continuing
with the inherited chance pops elsewhere across the forecast area.
SPC has added a slight (level 2 of 5) risk across portions of
southeastern NC and northeastern SC, including portions of Scotland,
Hoke, Cumberland, and Sampson counties. MUCAPE in this area should
range between 500-1500 J/kg, with greatest amounts to the south.
Effective bulk shear between 30-40 kt will also help to organize any
thunderstorms that do develop. Although an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out, the primary severe weather threats will be damaging
wind gusts and large hail. The most likely timing for severe weather
appears to be between 2 and 8pm. As the front moves east by sunset,
the chance for showers/thunderstorms will quickly diminish, with all
rain to the east of the region by midnight. Wind gusts will pick up
by late morning and continue through the overnight hours, reaching
as high as 25 mph outside of any thunderstorms that develop. Highs
will range from the mid 70s in the north to the mid 80s in the
south. Lows will be noticeably cooler behind the front, with values
ranging from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Friday...

Today`s cold front will be well offshore by Saturday morning,
although a second low pressure system will be over the Great Lakes
with another cold front extending to the south. The low will track
east to New York by Sunday morning, and moisture with the associated
cold front is not expected to track too far to the south. In fact,
southern counties should remain mostly sunny through the day. Have
gone with a slight chance of showers to the north of US-64 during
the late afternoon and early evening, and this may be overdone. The
effects of today`s cold front will continue to be felt on Saturday,
with some locations along the VA/NC border remaining in the upper
60s for highs and the rest of the area in the 70s. Saturday night`s
lows will be similar to tonight`s reading, in the mid 40s to the mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Dry NW flow will continue to dominate on Sunday between a mid/upper
trough over the Northeast US and ridging over the lower MS Valley.
At the surface, high pressure will move east from the TN Valley to
become centered over the mid-Atlantic on Monday morning. This
pattern will support sunny skies and another very pleasant day, as
dew points are again only in the 40s. High temperatures will range
from mid-70s to 80 with lows Sunday night in the upper-40s to mid-
50s, which is at or slightly below normal.

The elongated surface high will move offshore into the western
Atlantic on Monday and turn the flow southerly, which will help
increase high temperatures back to near normal (upper-70s to lower-
80s). Meanwhile a closed mid/upper low will move from the southern
Plains into the mid-MS Valley, eventually becoming more of an open
wave. SW flow aloft ahead of this system will increase moisture
across our region once more, with mid and high clouds spreading in
from the west. The earliest we see any precipitation from this
system should be Monday evening/night, as chance POPs begin to
spread in (highest SW). POPs increase to likely to categorical on
Tuesday and still likely on Wednesday, as the vast majority of GFS
and ECMWF ensemble members depict precipitation, and the
deterministic GFS, ECMWF and CMC have overall come into much better
agreement on the timing of the shortwave. The system looks to move
across the OH/TN Valleys on Tuesday/Tuesday night and the mid-
Atlantic on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Shower and storm chances will
be maximized during time of peak diurnal heating (afternoon and
evening) both days. The widespread clouds and precipitation may keep
temperatures down a bit on Tuesday, with highs in the 70s. Models
indicate a warmer and more unstable air mass in place on Wednesday
with highs in the mid-70s to lower-80s. Lows will be mild during
this period, in the upper-50s to mid-60s.

There will be some drying and clearing behind the shortwave early
Thursday, but this will be short-lived as the next longwave trough
moves into the central US and sends a shortwave the approaches our
region late Thursday. Precipitation doesn`t look as widespread as
Tuesday/Wednesday, but isolated showers and storms still can`t be
ruled out. Highs will again be in the upper-70s to mid-80s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 635 AM Friday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24
hours except for restrictions that develop in showers/thunderstorms.
At FAY, have gone from VCSH and PROB30 TSRA mention in the 06Z TAF
to prevailing showers and VCTS during the afternoon in the 12Z TAF,
along with VCSH at RDU/RWI. The chance of showers remains too
minimal to include at INT/GSO. Any precipitation at terminals should
come to an end around sunset. The wind forecast will be tricky -
there is currently a low level inversion across the area (although
there is no low level wind shear), and models have some variability
in how long it will take for the inversion to mix out and gusts to
start reaching the ground. Made minimal change from the previous
TAFs. Gusts will also pick up as a cold front moves through, up to
25 kt, then models are once again in debate over whether gusts will
persist after sunset or not.

Outlook: An isolated shower cannot be ruled out at INT/GSO Saturday
afternoon. The next round of precipitation will come Tuesday as low
pressure moves into the mid-Atlantic states.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Green