


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --629 FXUS62 KRAH 131147 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 747 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An outflow-reinforeced, backdoor front will dissipate over eastern and central VA and NC through Monday. Sub-tropical high pressure will otherwise extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Sunday... * Persistently hot and humid, with scattered, diurnal convection capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and flash flooding Sunday The models indicate a sub-tropical anticyclone in the mid/upr- levels, centered in 00Z/13th RAOB data over the nern Gulf and FL Panhandle, will hold firm, or drift slightly wwd into AL. A narrow mid and upr-level ridge, and maximum in PWs around 2", will extend from its northeast and across the Carolinas. The ridge axis will be flanked 1) to its east by an impulse/vort max now evident in water vapor satellite data about 70 miles ese of Cape Hatteras, which will drift generally sswwd and parallel to the coast of the Carolinas, and 2) a couple of impulses centered near the nrn WV Panhandle and wrn OH, respectively, which should both become increasingly-sheared as they drift newd and across the Middle Atlantic. At the surface, broad low pressure now centered at 1015 mb over cntl NC will remain over VA and the Carolinas. An outflow-reinforced backdoor front, evident in surface observational and earlier regional radar data, extended through the low from the srn Outer Banks wwd to near RDU then nwd to near LYH and SHD. The front will probably become further strengthened/reinforced by areas of fog and low stratus that will develop on its cool side from nern NC through cntl and ern VA in the next few hours and which will slow diurnal heating and enhance differential heating/frontogenesis. A sea breeze will also again develop and spread inland later this afternoon through evening. Showers/storms today will probably initiate first along the aforementioned backdoor front by early this afternoon, while others will develop in the higher terrain and propagate ewd along outflow and across the srn Middle Atlantic (NC/VA) Piedmont, probably aided by the mid/upr-level impulses over the Middle Atlantic. Additional, pulse/multi-cells, amid weak steering flow and shear (less than 10- 15 kts), will develop/pulse along outflows - with generally scattered coverage that may have a relative minimum over the srn Piedmont, where the above forcing mechanisms will be least prevalent and influential. Pulse, wet microbursts and locally very heavy rain/flooding in slow-moving cells may result on an isolated basis. Convection may linger while drifting ewd and across particularly the nrn Piedmont through this evening, along outflow and the lingering backdoor front. It will otherwise be persistently hot and humid as Sat, with heat index values that should again reach 100-105 F over the ern half of cntl NC, prior to convective initiation and outflow cooling. It will be continued mild and muggy/humid tonight, in the low-mid 70s, with areas of fog in the Coastal Plain and ne Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 225 AM Sunday... A weak surface trough will move across the area Monday resulting in scattered to numerous showers and storms. The best chance for storms will be in the afternoon and continuing through much of the evening and some of the overnight hours. Microbursts with damaging wind gusts could be possible within these storms. PW values will be above average around 2 which will continue the threat for heavy rain and flash flooding. WPC has most of Central NC in a marginal risk and portions of the Northern Piedmont in a Slight risk for Flash Flooding Monday. While SPC has not introduced any threat above general thunderstorms yet, MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2200 J/kg could warrant a few localized severe storms. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with one more day oh heat indices in the low 100s across the Triangle region. Lows overnight will be in the low to mid 70s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 225 AM Sunday... Tuesday will be similar to Monday, with the trough exiting the area and a weak cold front dipping down into the area. A few isolated morning showers will turn into numerous to widespread storms, again some could be severe. WPC has all of Central NC in a marginal risk for Flash Flooding as some storms could be slow moving and produce heavy rain at times. The front is expected fizzle out west of the area as weak high pressure tries to build in mid week. Afternoon diurnally driven scattered showers and storms will be possible each afternoon and early evening through the rest of the forecast period. Over the weekend another trough develops thus, expect increased precip chances Friday- Sunday especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures in the long term will range in the upper upper 80s to low 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 745 AM Sunday... Poleward of a convective outflow-reinforced, backdoor front now stretching in an arc from near LYH to RDU to HSE, areas of post- frontal LIFR fog and stratus have developed this morning from the NC nrn Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain nwd and across most of the coastal region of the Middle Atlantic and New England. Trends in early morning visible satellite data suggest some of these low clouds and fog may reach as far swd as RWI and RDU through 14Z, before lifting and dispersing to VFR with daytime heating/mixing. Scattered aft-eve convection with heavy rain, strong downburst wind, and brief flight restrictions can otherwise be expected by 18Z, with relative highest probability of occurrence at RDU and RWI, nearest the aforementioned backdoor front and differential heating zone from morning stratus/fog. Areas of morning stratus and fog will be possible throughout cntl NC late tonight, but the signal in model guidance suggests it may be favored at RWI and FAY. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure over the western and swrn N. Atlantic will favor a typical summertime regime of scattered aft-eve convection and patchy fog/stratus, with the latter likely to shift from the Coastal Plain (ie. RWI and FAY) early week to the wrn Piedmont and Foothills (ie. GSO/INT) by mid-week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...CA LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...MWS