Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 132338 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 735 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AIDED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY... TODAY AND TONIGHT: A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ON THE RADAR MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...DISCERNIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS TIME CAUSING SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS HAVING TROUBLE GETTING GOING AT THE MOMENT AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN A VERY POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NON-EXISTENT SHEAR. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER INTO THE NW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH OUT OF IT. OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY DAY IN CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS AND THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1420S SUGGESTIVE OF HIGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY OVERNIGHT AS ARE THE RH CROSS SECTIONS WITH THE ONLY HINT OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS BEING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. GOING WITH A SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENT PERSISTENCE FORECAST WHICH SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG AT KRWI BEFORE SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY AT KFAY AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD...IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AIDED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER TAKE ITS TIME GETTING HERE AND THEREFORE MONDAY COULD STILL BE DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LITTLE BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY BUT MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HIGHER THICKNESSES WILL COUNTERACT THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT UP INTO THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW WHICH WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 90S. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES UP OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO GET CLOSER. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY... A DEEP VORTEX IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ALSO...GIVEN THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH...THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN (ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS). THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONG THE MODELS (FRONT COMING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING OR NOT)...NEVERTHELESS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST...MOSTLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION COUPLES WITH THE INCREASED SHEAR (DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KNOTS). THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS (PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES). AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS QPF VALUES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (WHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR EARLIER) TO THE LOWER 70S FURTHER SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WITH REGARDS TO IF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA OR NOT...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN CAROLINA. LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIER/COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA). THUS...WILL SHOW A DECREASE IN POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN (HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EVEN MORE FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WAVE(S) OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...WHICH WOULD RAISE PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION COMES IN HOW SOON PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE...WITH THE GFS INDICATING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS HOLDING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S...LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 735 PM SUNDAY... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRIAD AREA WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AND NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY IMPACTS AT KINT/KGSO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH S-SW WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 8 KTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE AT KRWI AND KFAY WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE IN THIS PERSISTENCE WEATHER REGIME. FOR MONDAY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH 15/00Z...ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLD TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT INVOF OF KINT/KGSO. WINDS WILL BE S-SW 5-10KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 16KT. LONG TERM: RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY..BRINING A THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BUT THERE STILL MAY BE CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ELLIS NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION..NP/ELLIS

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