Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 291901 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 301 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY... AS OF 18Z...LATEST OBSERVATIONS/ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH AT LEAST 2/3RDS THE FORECAST AREA AND SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS NOTED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF BREAKS (OR LIFTING) OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST. INSTABILITY HAS STAYED DOWN TODAY GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THERE ARE LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW 90S AND SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED (PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS). THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE RATHER SMALL. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND THE MOIST AIR MASS...PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S FURTHER SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY... CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON SATURDAY. THE LINGERING BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP (HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST)...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MANY AREA LIKELY REMAINING DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY... SHORTWAVE ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES ON MONDAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD INITIALLY DEFLECT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY(VIA RING OF FIRE MOISTURE RETURN CONVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS). HOWEVER BY MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND LEE SIDE THERMAL TROUGH PROVIDING SUFFICIENT FORCING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH-LOWER MS VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO FIRE ALONG LEE SIDE THERMAL TROUGH EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S T0 LOWER 70S. MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH LATEST TIMING NOW SUGGESTING THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY... A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT (I.E. EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...KFAY). THESE MVFR CIGS HAVE PERSISTED ALL DAY AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL POSSIBLE... WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MOIST AIR MASS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED (ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...KRWI...KRDU). CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL RATHER SPARSE. OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRD/VINCENT NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...KRD

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