Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 231554 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1154 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Cindy will track northeast through the Tennessee valley this afternoon and eastward into the Mid- Atlantic tonight. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest on Saturday and progress slowly southeast through the Carolinas Saturday night as the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Cindy track offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1045 AM EDT Friday... Today: Elevated convection along/north of Hwy 64 earlier this morning was assoc/w 925-850mb warm advection. As of 15Z, warm advection has significantly weakened, shower activity has largely dissipated and low ceilings are lifting/mixing out. A large moisture/instability gradient was present over central NC at 15Z, with MLCAPE ranging from ~250 J/kg in the Triad to ~1250 J/kg along/east of I-95. H85 dewpoints ranged from 11-12C in the W/SW Piedmont to 14-15C in the Coastal Plain. Though further destabilization may occur in the Coastal Plain through early afternoon, instability should decrease by mid/late afternoon as a much drier H85 airmass (dewpoints 6-10C in GA/SC) advects into central NC from the southwest. With a ridge centered just offshore the SE coast, small amplitude waves and/or MCVs embedded in SW flow aloft in advance of Cindy`s remnants should remain well NW of the area this afternoon. As a result, forcing in central NC will be confined to mesoscale features such as the seabreeze and diff heating boundaries. With the above in mind, a slight chance of convection cannot be ruled out in assoc/w the seabreeze in the far SE Coastal Plain this afternoon where instability will be relatively greatest. Expect highs ranging from the mid/upper 80s NW to lower 90s SE. Southwest winds will increase to ~15 mph sustained with gusts to 25 mph by late afternoon. Tonight: Scattered convection will be possible overnight as Cindy`s remnants track northeast from the TN valley into the Virginias and low-level moisture/upper forcing increase across W/NW portions of the state. Expect the relative best potential for convection along/west of Hwy 1 between midnight and sunrise. Low-level flow will strengthen considerably overnight as the height gradient tightens between Cindy`s remnants to the N/NW and high pressure offshore the SE coast. Forecast soundings suggest a southwest wind sustained at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph, primarily after midnight. Wind gusts exceeding 35 mph cannot be ruled out in assoc/w convection in the NW Piedmont, however, damaging winds appear unlikely given poor diurnal timing /weak low-level lapse rates/, as reflected in the Day 1 outlook which confines severe wind probs along/west of the Blue Ridge. -Vincent
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 AM EDT Friday... There remains a marginal risk of a few damaging wind gusts in the south and east part of central NC Saturday afternoon and evening. The trailing surface trough will move into eastern and southeastern NC Saturday afternoon and evening, then stall near the SE Coastal Plain Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mid-day in the central Piedmont, with upscale development during the afternoon - mainly south and east of Raleigh. PW`s of 2 inches, very high dew points in the 70s, and heating into the upper 80s to lower 90s will lead to some very heavy showers and possibly a few strong to locally severe storms across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain mainly between 200 PM lingering well into the evening. 1 to 2 inches of rain should drench these areas. POP of 20 in the NW, 30-40 central and 70+ will be forecast in the FAY to GSB to RWI areas. Showers will linger in the SE overnight, with partly to mostly cloudy skies elsewhere in the rear of the surface trough. Lows in the 60s NW and lower 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 AM EDT Friday... Dry weather is generally expected for a large portion of the area for Sunday, outside of a lingering chance of some isolated showers/storms across our far southeastern portions of our forecast area. High temps behind the weak cold front area expected to be in the mid to upper 80s, with lows Monday morning in the 60s to near 70 SE. A pair of stronger disturbances aloft in the cyclonic flow across the eastern half of the country are expected to approach and move across the area early next week, along with an associated cold fronts. This will give us another chance for some isolated showers and storms on late Monday and Tuesday, along with a push of drier and cooler air, with below normal temps for Tuesday and Wednesday as surface moves across the area. A mid level ridge will develop across the area for late week, with surface high pressure expected to linger offshore. This will allow for a warming trend, though generally dry weather is still expected. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 655 AM Friday... Showers with IFR conditions expected at KGSO and KINT over to KRDU through 14z/today, with IFR CIGS at KFAY and KRWI. Showers will end from the SW between 12z-14z but IFR conditions will linger through 15z or so. MVFR CIGS will become VFR between 18z and 21z with a gusty SW wind at 15-25kt. Looking beyond 00z Sat (Fri evening), scattered showers and thunderstorms with a gusty SW wind at 15-25kt are expected Fri evening, lasting into Sat morning, with prevailing sub-VFR conditions late Fri night through daybreak Sat. Generally VFR conditions will return Saturday; however, MVFR conditions with scattered showers and storms are expected from KRDU eastward Saturday afternoon and evening. Then a return to VFR conditions are forecast Saturday night through early next week with high pressure. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...Vincent SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett

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