Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 120039 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 838 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY... THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE HELD SE OF THE CWA THUS FAR TODAY... NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS... WHERE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS PROVIDED MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER FAR SW NC INTO NRN GA... WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE (OBSERVED SURFACE CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG)... HOWEVER THE DRY AIR WILL KEEP THESE ISOLATED... AND THE STEERING FLOW INDICATES THAT THESE WILL REMAIN WEST/SW OF CENTRAL NC REGARDLESS. WILL RETAIN A RISK OF SHOWERS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER THE FAR SE CWA... BUT OTHERWISE THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION THERE. EVEN THESE SMALL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DISAPPEAR SOON AFTER SUNSET... WITH THE ENTIRE AREA LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY (ALBEIT HUMID) OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STABILITY WITH VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. LOWS AROUND 65-70. FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: EXPECT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD... WITH BELOW NORMAL PW VALUES UNDER 1.2 INCHES AND WARM AND SINKING MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SE CWA... AND ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE... THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL GETTING INTO CENTRAL NC IS VERY LOW... GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE COLUMN EXPECTED. RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE DRY OVER CENTRAL NC... INCLUDING THE SREF WHICH HAS A 10% OR LOWER CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST... AND HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 90... FOLLOWING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THICKNESSES. LOWS SAT NIGHT 66-71 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL START TO RECOVER SOME ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY 1.2-1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW SOME SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF MOSTLY DIURNAL TYPE STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE RATHER LOW. IF ANY PRECIP DOES AFFECT THE AREA...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (FROM CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN) AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE. BY SUNDAY...MAX LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1430M...SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 90S (ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND WHICH WOULD TEMPER THE WARMING SOME). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... A DEEP VORTEX IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THEREFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ALSO...GIVEN THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH... THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND THEREFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEN THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO IF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN CAROLINA. THUS...WILL SHOW A LITTLE DECREASE IN POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN (HIGHES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA) GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 837 PM FRIDAY... FRONT NOW LIES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA... AND THE MAIN BAND OF CLOUDS REMAINS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND INTO SC. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS... CLEARING SKIES... AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOG WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN MVFR VISBYS... AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF IFR AT SITES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY... KRWI AND KFAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE AND A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS WILL HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND... CAUSING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MON... ALTHOUGH RWI/FAY MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-VFR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK SUN AND AGAIN MON. A STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUE/WED. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...SEC/HARTFIELD

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