Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 171858 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 255 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry high pressure will build into the Mid-atlantic today. The high pressure system will moderate and persist into the first part of the weekend. A cold front will approach the region late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... A 1030mb surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic States will result in a picturesque Autumn day across central NC today. Aside from some patchy thin jet streak cirrus across eastern NC, expect abundant sunshine with a steady northerly breeze of 6 to 10 kts, that will occasionally gust into the lower teens. Highs today will range from near 62 across the northern Piedmont near the VA border to 67 across the southern Piedmont and Sandhills. Clear skies and decoupling winds will result in ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows tonight will generally range in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A few of the typically colder locations to the west of U.S. route 1 could have lows in the 35 to 38 range which may result in some patchy short-lived frost. Will include a mention of frost in the HWO but not issue an advisory due to the isolated nature of the frost and low confidence. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... Basically a temperature forecast with gradual airmass moderation as center of surface high shifts east from the lee of the central/southern Appalachians Wednesday morning to off the Mid- Atlantic Coast Wednesday afternoon/evening. Highs Wednesday a good 5 degrees warmer than Tuesday, ranging from upper 60s to lower 70s. A low-amplitude shortwave trough approaching the area late Wednesday night may produce some patchy thin cirrus, but otherwise prove to be inconsequential. Lows 40 to 48. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 255 PM Tuesday... High pressure will dominate through the weekend, with a very gradual warming trend through the period. Highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s, with perhaps some lower 80s Saturday and Sunday. Mins will be mostly in the mid 40s Friday morning warming to the upper 40s to lower 50s by Sunday morning. The high pressure will shift offshore and we have a favorable return flow setting up ahead of our next frontal passage. Timing will be a key player early next week, as an upper trof moving east across the southern midwest will cut off over the gulf states, assisting in providing strong moisture advection ahead of associated surface cold front. The chance of showers will increase by later Monday, with even better chances on tap for Monday night into Tuesday. Slightly delayed timing would be beneficial, as it would allow us to build up stronger instability to invigorate convection ahead of the front on Tuesday. Highs Monday will reach the mid and upper 70s, while Tuesday`s highs will be dependent on frontal passage...probably see 70s again, but could see cold air advection halt the morning warmup early in the northeast.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 PM Tuesday... High confidence of VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period as cool dry surface high pressure settles over the region. N-NELY winds of 6 to 12 kts will decouple this evening becoming light to calm. Looking beyond the 24 hour TAF period...With the exception for some predawn morning fog/stratus across eastern terminals Thursday morning, continued surface high pressure over the region will result in dry VFR conditions through the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...CBL/BLAES SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...CBL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.