Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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106 FXUS62 KRAH 190715 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 315 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move into the Piedmont this morning and will push slowly east across the Coastal Plain this afternoon before sagging just south of the area tonight and Sunday. Another front will approach the area on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday... Scattered band of convection associated with the 850-700 mb trough will push east of the area over the next couple of hours. Meanwhile trailing sfc cold front currently over the NC mtns/fthls is expected to push east into the central Piedmont by daybreak, with very little fanfare in terms of rain chances. What we will see however is noticeably drier low-level air advecting into the western Piedmont this morning and then into the central Piedmont by the afternoon as the cold front pushes slowly east into the NC coastal counties. Rain chances this afternoon will be confined to areas east of Interstate 95, in proximity to the front and attendant juicier-more unstable air. It will be a good 3 to 4 degrees cooler than Friday, but again the big story here is the drier-less humid air, especially across the western and central Piedmont which will for the most part keep This should keep heat index values below the century mark. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Upper trough will swing across the area late this evening and tonight, with perhaps some very thin high clouds. Otherwise, the drier low-level air will allow for cooler overnight lows. Lows ranging from upper 60s in the NW Piedmont to lower 70s in the Coastal Plain. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM Saturday... Heights aloft will rise in the wake of the low-amplitude shortwave trough moving out of the region with a 594 dm upper level anticyclone strengthening over the SE US late Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, front just south of the area will likely wash-out and become ill-define by Sunday evening. Can`t rule out isolated convection along the sea breeze across the far SE Zones, otherwise the warm air and resultant CAP aloft will put a lid on convection across central NC on Sunday. Highs in the lower to mid 90s with lingering low-level dry air again keeping heat indices below 100 F. Onset of southerly return flow Sunday night will mark the return of low-level moisture and warmer temps. Lows 70 to 75. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 244 PM Friday... On Monday we`ll see heights rise as the ridge off the SE coast builds northward. The sfc pattern will be fairly typical for this time of year with the sfc high over the western Atlantic promoting a southerly low level flow over our area. Forecast soundings show a notable inversion around H7 with dry air in the mid-levels, and in some cases (particularly across our southern and eastern counties) a fair amount of moisture above H4. Thus with heating, the forecast soundings suggest a decent amount of shallow cu may form below the inversion across much of central NC as the afternoon progresses. To make matters worse, the soundings also suggest a veil of cirrus, esp the farther south you go. If there is any good news, these soundings do not support rain or deep convection, so will keep PoPs well below climo for Monday. So in summary for the eclipse weather, neither clear nor completely overcast, but rather partly cloudy with cu briefly obscuring the sun at times, along with some high clouds. Keep in mind that if you spend any substantial time outside, be ready for highs in the low-mid 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s. Tuesday should be mostly dry as the ridge slowly moves east, but then rain chances will increase on Wednesday as the next northern stream short wave moves south and east and pushes a cold front across our area. The longwave trough will continue to deepen over the East, so look for cooler temps by late next week, and perhaps even a brief break from the high humidity for next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 112 AM Saturday... A broken line of showers and storms will cross central NC this evening into very early Saturday morning in advance of a cold front moving into the area from the west. The activity is currently moving through KRDU and will affect the eastern TAF sites KRWI and KFAY through 09z. Heavy rain and gusty winds, along with a brief period of IFR conditions will be possible with the strongest storms. The cold front will be moving into the central Piedmont by around daybreak, and will push slowly east across the NC coastal plain by the afternoon. As such, isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible at KFAY this afternoon. Otherwise, dry air filtering into the area in the wake of the front will result in dry VFR conditions Saturday afternoon/evening. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Saturday night and Sunday with dry weather expected. The threat of late-day storms and some early- morning fog and stratus will return Tuesday with numerous showers and storms expected to accompany a cold frontal passage Wednesday/Wednesday night. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...BSD/BLAES is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.