Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241439 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1039 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY... AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY... DPVA ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED BY RAPID COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY ON THE GSO RAOB. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR `AVERAGE` FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. -VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY... CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID 70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASIDE FROM CIRRUS WITH CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5-8 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...VINCENT

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