Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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571 FXUS62 KRAH 181424 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1020 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure over the Mid-atlantic will extend across the region into the weekend. A cold front will approach the area from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1020 AM Wednesday... High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide central NC with clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures through tonight. After a chilly start to the day which saw morning slows down into the 30s across much of the Piedmont, temperatures ate late morning had recover into the 50s. Temperatures appear on track to reach the forecast highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Under clear skies this evening, temperatures will cool quickly after sunset, falling through the 50s early this evening, and into the 40s across the Piedmont after 10 PM. Min temps in the upper 30s-lower 40s common, slightly warmer over the southern coastal plain where patchy low clouds may develop prior to daybreak.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... A quiet weather regime continues into Thursday and Thursday night as surface high pressure remains in control. A short wave trough pushes across the Carolinas on Thursday and offshore on Thursday night resulting in some transient and patchy cirrus clouds. Some shallow moisture could result in some patchy fog or stratus across the Coastal Plain toward daybreak Friday. Otherwise, skies should be generally clear. Highs on Thursday will range in the lower to mid 70s with lows Thursday night in the lower to mid 40s. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 305 AM Wednesday... Surface high pressure over the region to start the period late week, will shift offshore this weekend. Meanwhile, mid/upper level ridging will move across the region from west to east late week into the weekend. This will yield quite/dry weather during this time frame, with some increasing moisture by late Saturday into Sunday. Expect highs temps will be above normal during this period, generally ranging from the mid to upper 70s to even some lower 80s. Low temps are expected to range from the mid 40s to mid 50s during this time frame (coldest on Saturday morning). Chances for showers and possibly some thunderstorms will increase early next week as a surface cold front approaches. However, model guidance continues to show very poor run to run continuity, along with a large spread in the ensembles, with regard to the evolution of the mid/upper level flow pattern across the CONUS next week. Strength of the next system along with the timing remains in question. However, chances for some decent precip appear to be increasing for the period of early to mid next week, though which day(s) will have the highest chances is still very much in question (along with temps for the period). For now will generally go with chance pops for early next week, with both pops and temps hedging towards a bit slower frontal passage (which is more in line with the 00Z/18th GFS and 12Z/17th ECMWF and the previous forecast). Thus, will go with highs Monday in the 70s, to lower 80s and highs on Tuesday generally from 70-75. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 645 AM Wednesday... High confidence of VFR conditions through the 24-hour TAF period. Surface high pressure and weak ridging aloft will result in generally clear skies and fair weather during the period. A few wisps of cirrus will move into the area from the west during the day. Light northeast to easterly surface winds will range between 3 and 8kts today with very light to calm winds expected early this morning and again tonight. Looking beyond the 24-hour TAF period, surface high pressure will persist across the region into the weekend. Some patchy stratus or fog is possible across the Coastal Plain impacting the KFAY/KRWI around and just prior to daybreak on Thursday and possibly Friday mornings. -Blaes && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...BLAES

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