Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 280624 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 220 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .Synopsis... An upper level disturbance will track just to the north of the region today and tonight around the hot high pressure over the Carolinas. A weak cold front is expected to move into central NC late Friday, stalling over the region for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM Thursday... ...Heat Advisory for all counties today (noon through 800 PM)... First things first, the dangerously high dew points in the 70s to lower 80s will combine with the higher temperatures today (96-101) to produce heat indices of 105-109 degrees, except 100-104 in the NW Piedmont. All zones will have a heat advisory from noon through 800 PM. It can not be stated enough for everyone to drink plenty of water, limit time outdoors, take breaks in the shade or in air conditioning, or relax by a fan to cool off. This is a dangerous heat wave - not necessarily because of the high temperatures (we are not breaking daily highs) - it is the dew points in the mid 70s to lower 80s setting records. Heat indices nearing 110 degrees will be felt in the southern and eastern part of the Advisory area. The chance of cooling convection today appears less than yesterday in all but the NW zones. A weakening mid/upper level short wave trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley, already aiding in strong to severe thunderstorms over northern TN, KY, southwest VA, and even the NW Mountains of NC early this morning, will lift NE over WVA/VA later today. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop over northwest NC and southwest VA this afternoon and track NE into northern VA this evening. ...A few severe storms are likely across northern NC this afternoon and early evening... While the bulk of the convection is expected to affect TN/KY/WVA/VA, some of the storms will affect/develop over the mountains of NC. Outflow boundaries may set off new convection, at least on a scattered basis, over much of NW and north-central NC mid afternoon into the mid-evening hours. This is where there will be a chance of isolated severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind the main threat. While the stronger mid-level flow is expected to be just north of the region, northern NC will be on the southern fringe of the increased mid=level flow, and it may actually be in the area where heating will be the strongest (given convection already ongoing to the northwest. MLCapes of 2500 J/KG are possible as dew points will be in the 70-72 range as temperatures reach 96-98. Given this instability, any storm that occurs will become capable of damaging wind. The threat will diminish rapidly this evening as is typically the case with strongly diurnally driven storms. We will carry 40-50 POP NW and N, with only 10 to 15 POP SE. Highs 96-101. Lows tonight 70-76. && .SHORT TERM /Friday and Friday night/... As of 331 PM Wednesday... A shortwave moving across the Mid Atlantic on Friday will act to suppress the upper ridge that has been the cause of our extreme further to the south and east of NC. This will be the beginning of a pattern change for the region, with troughing eventually dominating the east coast by early next week. Therefore, for late in the week and into the weekend, deep southwesterly flow will set up over the area as the mean trough axis stays to the west. Thus, convective development will largely hinge on disturbances moving through in the flow aloft. These disturbances are difficult to time this far out, therefore will show mostly a diurnal trend on near normal convective chances. Then, we should see precip chances increasing some more into early next week as the aforementioned trough begins to progress east towards our region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 331 PM Wednesday... The extreme heat should finally let up as the upper ridge is suppressed and clouds/precip chances will be on the rise. Thus, am expecting max temps to trend from the low/mid 90s on Saturday to the upper 80s/lower 90s early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM Thursday... There is a chance of strong to isolated severe storms this afternoon and early evening across the northern part of NC from KINT to KRWI, otherwise generally VFR conditions are expected with some patchy early morning ground fog. Outlook: Outside of isolated to scattered storms each afternoon/evening and some patchy early morning fog, expect predominately VFR conditions through Friday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from NOON to 800 PM EDT TODAY for NCZ007>011-021>028- 038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...BADGETT is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.