Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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159 FXUS62 KRAH 300442 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1240 AM EDT Mon May 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical Depression Bonnie, located over the central South Carolina coast, will drift slowly toward the northeast along the North Carolina coast through mid week, before moving offshore. A cold front will approach from the west late in the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
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As of 925 PM EDT... Tropical cyclone Bonnie has been nearly stationary over the past several hours. A slight jog to the northeast is expected late tonight/towards daybreak. Convective coverage has certainly been on a wane since loss of daytime heating. And despite the tropical moisture in place (PWS of 1.75-2.0"...1 to 2 S.D. above normal), much of the Hi-res CAMS indicate this lull will continue through most of the night. Will trim back pops for the remainder of the night, with chance pops over the Piedmont while keeping likely pops in the east where continued DCVA to the northeast of the circulation center, lifting atop the inverted trough/coastal front extending along the I-95 corridor will provide the best focus for lift and showers overnight. Expect a wide range in temperatures overnight with lows in the lower/mid 60s NW where CADish airmass resides, to lower 70s over the easter/southeastern counties, east of the sfc trough.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Monday through Monday night/... As of 215 PM Sunday... The remnants of TD Bonnie are expected to track very slowly ENE from northeastern SC into southeastern NC Monday and Monday night. Additional locally heavy rain is expected over portions of central NC with the main focus likely along or near the track of the low. This would place the SE Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain in the heaviest QPF of 1 to 1.5 inches with locally higher totals. POP and QPF will be lower back in the NW Piedmont where some drier low level air will advect off the higher terrain into the far western Piedmont lowering the PW`s and lift there. Skies should range from Cloudy down east to variably cloudy in the western Piedmont. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the eastern third of the region with much more scattered showers to the west. Highs Monday will again be held down by the clouds and rain, especially in the east where readings will be in the 70s to near 80. Highs in the western Piedmont should be around 80. Lows generally in the 65-70 range. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... As of 205 PM Sunday... The remnants of TD Bonnie are still expected to be a factor into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday for eastern sections of NC. We will follow the latest NHC forecasts which indicates a very slow moving depression finally beginning to get steered a bit quicker NE along the coast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Models are in good agreement in depicting the highest POP near the coast along a low level boundary and very near the track of the low. This appears very reasonable although there will be a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms inland with the QPF much lower than along the track of the low. QPF of 0.25 to 0.50 with locally higher totals can be expected over the far eastern Coastal Plain with QPF of 0.25 or less inland over much of central NC. Day time temperatures will be held in check but the humidity levels will remain high. Expect highs to reach back into the 80-85 range Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. Later in the week, expect the influence of the TD to give way as the remnant low is bumped east as mid level troughing moves out of the Rockies and heads eastward. This system should approach the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic region next weekend and is expected to bring significant convective rains at times by the end of the week into the weekend. A slow moving cold front is expected to stall over the SE states by the weekend focusing heavy QPF. Lows will be well above normal 65-70 and highs in the 80s cooling into the 75-82 range by Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday through Friday/...
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As of 1240 AM Monday... Periods of adverse aviation conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at Central NC terminals, as very moist air remains in place over the area. At INT/GSO, MVFR cigs are expected to develop and persist through the morning, before gradually lifting to VFR during the early afternoon hours. Scattered showers this afternoon may generate brief MVFR vsbys, but otherwise VFR vsbys are expected during the daylight hours today. At RDU/RWI/FAY, IFR cigs are possible early this morning, with the best chances at RDU, where IFR vsbys are also possible. Vsbys at these three sites should improve to VFR later this morning, with cigs slower to improve, trending to MVFR during the afternoon. Isolated showers with MVFR vsbys are likely to pass near RDU/RWI/FAY through this morning, then coverage is expected to increase by afternoon, with numerous showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon into evening producing brief MVFR to IFR conditions mainly at RDU/RWI/FAY. Shower/storm coverage is expected to slowly decrease this evening with a trend to MVFR to IFR conditions after sunset. Looking beyond 06Z early Tue morning: MVFR to IFR conditions are likely to hold through mid morning Tue, with improvement to MVFR east and to VFR west during Tue afternoon. Nightfall will bring another trend to sub-VFR conditions at all sites Tue night, as the air mass remains moist and unsettled with the center of TD Bonnie tracking slowly toward the NNE along the NC coast. Improvement to VFR is expected Wed lasting into Thu especially at INT/GSO, as Bonnie moves out over the sea, although sub-VFR vsbys in fog are possible late Wed night into early Thu morning with light surface winds. A cold front approaching from the west Thu night may bring sub-VFR conditions in showers/storms on Fri. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...Hartfield

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