Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 140815 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 255 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak and dry surface cold front will push south through the area today. An area of low pressure will develop along the NC coast Friday, then tracks northeast while staying offshore Friday night. High pressure will build into the area through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Thursday... Overall, a rather quiet night across central North Carolina, characterized by clearing skies and a brisk south to southwesterly wind. Water vapor continues to depict the remnants of the shortwave pushing east off the Atlantic Coastline at this hour, with a topographically driven low to mid level cloud deck failing to survive the downsloping conditions north and west of our forecast area. Early morning temperature trends still seem to be on track, with most areas expected to stall near the freezing mark just before sunrise Thursday. A developing low is expected to exit the Ohio River Valley by morning, trailing a reinforcing cold front or two through the region during the day Thursday. This should allow temperatures to briefly recover Thursday afternoon as the true cold air lags behind the first boundary, likely arriving in the northwest around peak heating. Expect temperatures to range from the middle 50s in the south and east closer to the Atlantic Coastline, while those in the Triad struggle to reach the upper 40s with a quicker changeover to northwesterly flow. Wind speeds diminish and cloud cover will be on the rise Thursday night as northerly to easterly flow establishes, and a general moisture return at all levels takes place. No precipitation is expected to occur during this period. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday... The next shortwave in the broad cyclonic flow aloft, will dive SE through the Northern and Central Plains today and into the Carolinas on Friday, becoming increasing sheared by the energetic split flow regime across the Conus. With the approach of this next wave and attendant upstream height falls, a weak area of low pressure will develop near the NC coast, along the old frontal zone. While limited moisture will keep the forecast dry, central NC could see a good mixture of clouds and sun on Friday, with highs ranging from from lower to mid 40s north to lower 50s SE. As the coastal low tracks NE out into the Atlantic, surface high will build east into the area Friday night. Lows in the mid 20s to around 30. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 225 AM Thursday... Saturday and Saturday night will be dry over Central NC with temperatures just a few degrees below normal for mid-December as surface high pressure builds over the area and west-northwest flow dominates aloft. The surface high will shift offshore on Sunday as a warm front lifts northward through the area Sunday eve/night. Meanwhile, a shortwave aloft lifts east-northeast out of the ARKLATEX toward the Northeast riding the northern periphery of the upper level ridge extending into the Carolinas from the parent high over the Caribbean. Latest model solutions indicate any precipitation with this system should skirt north of the area Sunday night. However, the strong south-southwesterly flow into the region behind the aforementioned warm front will advect warm, moist air into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic resulting in increased chances for rain, especially further south, on Monday. Beyond Monday the medium-range models diverge significantly with respect to the upper level pattern. Given the large spread in solutions, wide range of forecast possibilities, and low forecast confidence, will carry at least a slight chance of rain through Tuesday. The 00Z Thursday model solutions are in slightly better agreement than the 12Z Wednesday ones, so hopefully that trend will continue with an increase in forecast confidence for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will increase from Sunday through Tuesday to several degrees above normal, decreasing on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1230 AM Thursday... There is a high probability of VFR conditions across central NC through 00Z Friday. A fast moving upper disturbance continues to the east at this hour, leaving the northern piedmont under clearing skies and a brisk Northwest wind. An attendant sfc front will cross central NC later tonight through early Thu. This system will be accompanied by a deck of mid level clouds with ceilings at or above 10000ft. These clouds will depart prior to sunrise Thu. Low level wind shear is also a concern in the proximity of KFAY and KRWI as winds just a couple thousand feet above the surface will be swly 35- 40kts for a short period of time. VFR conditions are expected to continue through Saturday night. Another area of low pressure will affect our region late Thu night through Friday. Ceilings associated with this system are expected to remain VFR. A low pressure system approaching from the west may bring a threat for sub VFR ceilings to central NC late in the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...JJM SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...WSS/JJM

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