Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 212204 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 605 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A moist southwesterly return flow will prevail over the Carolinas through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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As of 605 PM EDT Wednesday... Near term forecast was recently updated to adjust the PoP to chance across sections of southern counties of central NC. This region primarily south of highway 64 in a zone of modest moisture convergence, associated with a boundary at 850mb. This boundary along with heating from late afternoon sun has aided to trigger isolated/scattered showers along this feature. While the bulk of the showers will dissipate with loss of heating, the tropical air mass over the region will support isolated showers past midnight. Otherwise, expect variably cloudy skies tonight with overnight temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1250 PM EDT Wednesday... Widespread convection is expected over the Deep South tonight/Thu as Tropical Cyclone Cindy makes landfall in vicinity of the TX/LA border. Latent heat release assoc/w the aforementioned convection is expected to amplify a ridge downstream over the central Appalachians and portions of NC/VA late tonight. Subsidence attendant the aforementioned ridge should suppress precipitation and result in dry conditions through ~noon. However, strengthening low-level warm advection (from the SW) and MCVs (emanating from upstream convection) lifting NNE into the southern Appalachians will weaken ridging aloft over the region and allow convection to expand NE from upstate SC/southwest NC into portions of central NC Thursday afternoon, primarily the W/SW Piedmont. Expect highs ranging from the lower/mid 80s in the far W/SW Piedmont to lower 90s in the E/NE Coastal Plain. Convection should assume a WSW-ENE orientation and lift north toward the NC/VA border Thu night as Cindy`s remnants progress into Arkansas and southerly flow aloft upstream over the Deep South veers to the SW. Expect the relative best chance for precipitation in the N/NW Piedmont. Chances for precipitation will decrease to the south and east such that dry conditions are likely in the SE Coastal Plain. Expect lows in the lower 70s. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday... Model consensus, which is closely in line with the official NHC, tracks the remnants the of T.S. Cindy through the TN Valley on Friday and then through the Southern Mid-Atlantic states on Saturday as it gets picked up by the belt of westerlies attendant to the northern stream trough. The resurgence of deep moisture that`s slated to lift back over the area on Thursday-Thursday night, temporarily wanes on Friday as the brunt of upper disturbances(likely to be convectively induced) lift off to the north. So it`s possible that after the morning rain showers, most of the area, particularly south of I-85 could end up mostly dry on Friday, with only slight/small chance of showers/storms possible Friday afternoon, owing to strong daytime heating within the moist low-level airmass. Models are starting to come into better agreement with the timing and magnitude of Cindy`s remnants, trending towards a more progressive/sheared solution, which now brings the system through the area between 06 to 15z Saturday. Thus, the threat for heavy rain and flooding appears to be decreasing across central NC, with the latest GFS and EC now showing less than an inch across the area. Additionally, given earlier-less favorable diurnal timing, severe threat appears very low as well. Confidence remains lows with the timing and amplitude of embedded shortwave troughs within the Eastern US trough, with the potential for a series of sfc cold fronts to move through the area Sunday and again on Monday. Appears the better convective rain chances will be in the east, in closer proximity to axis of deeper moisture, otherwise, considerably drier air across the western part of the state should limit pops. Will indicate slight to small chance pops both Sunday and Monday. Highs Friday through Monday should range in the mid/upper 80s NW to lower 90s SE, with balmy lows in the 70s. Below normal temps and less humid conditions will follow in the wake of the secondary cold front Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1250 PM EDT Wednesday... 24-HR TAF Period: MVFR ceilings will lift/scatter out to VFR by early/mid afternoon as an upper level disturbance progresses east of central NC and a drier mid-level airmass advects into the region from the west. Thereafter, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through this evening. MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible at all terminals after midnight, though confidence is lower than average with regard to timing in addition to the location /extent/ of stratus development. Any sub-VFR ceilings that develop overnight will lift/scatter to VFR by ~15Z Thursday morning. Looking Ahead: Early morning stratus /sub-VFR ceilings/ and diurnal convection will be possible on both Thu/Fri. Gusty SW winds and numerous showers/storms are expected at all terminals between 12-18Z Saturday (beginning/ending earliest at INT/GSO and latest at RWI) as the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Cindy track quickly E/ENE across NC/VA. VFR conditions will rapidly return from west-east in the wake of Cindy`s remnants Sat afternoon/evening and persist through the remainder of the weekend. -Vincent && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...Vincent

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