Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 011648 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1245 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY... EXPECT A PRETTY QUIET DAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP STILL SHOWS A WEAK MSLP PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER ERN NC AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NC. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE RISING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH (NOW MOVING OUT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC) AND AHEAD OF THE POTENT VORTEX OVER CENTRAL IN THAT WILL AFFECT US WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THU. IN ADDITION TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FEATURES TO FORCE ASCENT... WE`RE ALSO LACKING MOISTURE AS PW VALUES ARE HOLDING NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING ISOLATED POPS IN THE ERN CWA BUT WILL NEED TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME SRN/SE CWA WHERE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOCALLY GREATER NEAR THE WEAK TROUGH... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE DECENT HEATING TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITATIONS CAUSED BY THE NOW-DISSIPATING FOG/STRATUS AND THIS AFTERNOON`S DIURNAL FLAT CUMULUS... AND WITH MORNING THICKNESSES AT LEAST 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... NECESSITATING AN UPWARD NUDGE OF PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. -WSS && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY... WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90- LOWER 90S. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS... POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD THOUGH. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS MORNING`S FOG AND STRATUS AFFECTING EASTERN TERMINALS HAS LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED... AND ANY CIGS TODAY PRODUCED BY HEATING WILL BE VFR. THESE DAYTIME CLOUDS WILL THEN BREAK UP THIS EVENING... LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG 07Z-12Z TONIGHT AT RDU/FAY... WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER FOG AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT RWI. WILL INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT RDU/FAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING... WITH IFR CHANCES AT RWI. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO VFR BY 14Z WED MORNING. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK... GENERATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS... APART FROM ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUB-VFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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