Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 151920 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 320 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift offshore this afternoon. A cold front will cross the area late tonight through early Monday. Cool high pressure will build in behind Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 240 PM Sunday... High pressure across the area will shift offshore this afternoon in advance of a pair of shortwave troughs that will drive a cold front southeast through the area between 06 to 15z Monday. A hostile environment east of the mountains that features low-level downslope component and very weak instability with MLCAPE of only 100 to 200 J/Kg will result in very light/scattered rainfall along the front, with rainfall amounts expected to average a tenth or less, providing little to no relief to the growing D0 and D1 drought conditions across central NC. Lows overnight will be governed by the timing of the cold front into the area, with the bisecting front resulting in lows ranging from upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Sunday... Cold front will quickly exit southern and eastern areas by 15z Monday. Hindered by the early diurnal timing, warm mid-level temperatures and poor lapse rates, showers will be limited along the front as it slips south of the area with rain chances largely over by 18z. There after, post-frontal dry cold air advection will lead to NW-SE clearing with occasional NWLY wind gusts into the teens. Much cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Continued cold air advection Monday night will result in chilly overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
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As of 240 PM Sunday... We may see lingering high clouds across the southeast CWA early Tue along the mid level shear axis, but once that departs, rising heights aloft from the west and strong cool surface high pressure building in from the northwest will bring a dry, stable column. Apart from mostly scattered flat diurnal cumulus clouds, skies should be relatively cloud free during this period. The center of the surface high will move into the Mid Atlantic region Wed before stalling out over the central and southern Appalachians, where it will sit well into next weekend, anchored by a building mid level anticyclone over the Southeast. The high will modify late in the week, with the initially low thicknesses Tue (30-35 m below normal) recovering to near normal by Thu before rising to 10-15 m above normal Fri-Sun. Expect highs in the mid 60s to around 70 Tue, and we should see some gusty winds from the NE for at least the first half of the day. Tue night will be the chilliest, with outlying areas likely to drop into the mid-upper 30s, and some patchy frost not out of the question. Urban areas and locations across the southeast CWA should drop to around 40 to the lower 40s. Readings will then climb a couple degrees each day, with highs around 70 to the lower 70s Wed, mid 70s Thu, and upper 70s to around 80 Fri/Sat, with perhaps some lower 80s Sun. Lows Wed night in the 40s to around 50 will rise to be solidly in the 50s by Sun morning. -GIH
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&& .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 PM Sunday... Ceilings have finally lifted to VFR across the area and will remain VFR through the evening. A surface cold front moving rapidly southeast through the area between 06 to 15z Monday will bring MVFR ceilings and patchy/isolated rain showers across the area. Additionally, areas of fog could develop ahead of the front, primarily across eastern terminals(KFAY and KRWI)between 06 to 12z. Post-frontal cold dry air advection will bring a return to VFR conditions to KINT, KGSO and KRDU between 12 to 15z, and at KRWI and KFAY between 15 to 18z. Occasional NWLY wind gusts into the teens can also be expected Monday afternoon. Dry VFR conditions will rule through Friday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...CBL

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