Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221703 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS...An upper level trof will linger along the Coastal Plain today, with light northerly flow at the surface. This pattern will linger through the weekend, with some modestly drier air edging into central NC later Saturday as high pressure builds down the Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1025 AM Friday... Last vestiges of fog are about to evaporate in the Rocky Mount to Goldsboro areas this morning. Few changes are needed - just a tweak to the temperature trends to show a quicker rise this morning. The mid/upper level trough will lingering across coastal and southern portions of the Carolinas today, while surface high pressure builds/extends into the area from the north. This will lead to mostly dry conditions across central NC today, though we can`t completely rule out a few showers/storms across far southern/southeastern portions of the area. High temps are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s, with perhaps a few locations across the south touching 90 degrees. Quite weather is expected to continue tonight, outside of some patchy fog. Expect low temps will range from the lower 60s in the usual rural cold spots to generally the mid 60s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Friday... The upper ridge building to our NW is expected to edge SE to encompass the mid-Atlantic states and our region. Warm and dry weather expected with lows in the mid to upper 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s (near 90 in the Sandhills). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 220 AM Friday... Most attention will be focused on TC Maria and the NHC official track. Currently, models and the NHC continue to suggest a northward movement, remaining well offshore of the Outer Banks mid week. This still can change, with the strong mid/upper trough expected to dive SE from Canada late week into the weekend - finally ending the threat for awhile. We will continue the dry and seasonably warm conditions for our region. Highs generally in the mid to upper 80s, lows in the mid 60s (with typical climatological variability) each day. There should be a large increase in POP by next weekend if the models advertised pattern change evolve as currently depicted. This strong developing trough from the Midwest to the Great Lakes and NE states would also bring a significant cool down next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 PM Friday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are expected with light and variable winds. Exception will be persistent late night fog and low stratus in the RWI area in the 08-13Z time range. Outlook Sat-Wed: Patchy fog will be possible each morning, mainly at RWI and FAY, with VFR conditions as high pressure centered north of our region lingers through early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...mlm NEAR TERM...mlm/BSD SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...mlm

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