Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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326 FXUS62 KRAH 190608 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 110 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will exit the area later this morning. High pressure will build into our region behind the exiting low pressure system tonight and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 822 PM Saturday... The mid/upper level trough continued to move east over the western part of the area this evening. Radar indicated some light returns. However, only trace amounts reported at the ground due to the very dry boundary layer to overcome. We will continue to advertise some trace amounts for the next 3-6 hours east, while ending the sprinkle chances west. Lows mostly in the 40s with cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Saturday... Quiet weather with very few clouds and warm temps. A light surface flow from the NW will persist Sun as high pressure builds in from the west. We`ll likely see a few clouds in the morning as a vorticity lobe dives into the base of the shortwave trough over the area. But as this trough pushes ESE and offshore, rising heights and warming aloft will bring generally clear skies. Thicknesses should remain well above normal, similar to today`s readings, indicating highs from around 70 to the lower 70s. Lows once again mostly in the lower to mid 40s Sun night under clear skies. -GIH && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 PM Saturday... The forecast for the long term will be characterized by temperatures well above normal for the middle to late part of February. Monday begins with a very strong upper level ridge over the area and high pressure at the surface leading to mostly clear skies and temperatures into the 70s. This will continue through Tuesday but with increasing clouds as a frontal system approaches. Wednesday a dry frontal passage occurs but temperatures stay warm with return flow around high pressure in the western Atlantic. This will keep high temps in the 70s for the remainder of the work week. Uncertainty with the timing of a system next weekend could mean either a wet Saturday and a dry Sunday or vice versa. Either way our next chance for some decent rainfall will be next weekend. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 110 AM Sunday... There is a high likelihood of VFR conditions across central NC through 06Z Monday. Areas of mid/high level cloudiness across the area early this morning will depart late this morning or during the afternoon. Surface winds will generally be 10kts or less, with infrequent gusts around 15kts. VFR conditions are highly probable to persist through Monday and Monday evening. Periods of sub VFR ceilings, especially late at night and early in the morning, may become a common occurrence Tuesday through Thursday. The low level air mass will become increasingly moist due to an area of low pressure to our west- southwest which will become the dominate weather maker for our region. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...WSS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.