Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS62 KRAH 241720
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
120 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the region through
the week. Temperatures and humidities will gradually rise through
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM Wednesday...
Little change required to the near term forecast.
An area of high pressure extending across central NC will result in
hot and dry conditions this afternoon. A thin layer of moisture
trapped below a mid level subsidence inversion will result in
patches of mid level cloudiness at times. Subsidence and a
relatively dry air mass aloft will inhibit convective development
across most of the area. The exception will be in vicinity of the
Yadkin River valley where a stray shower or storm may develop in a
narrow zone of low level moisture convergence. Afternoon temps in
the upper 80s to around 90 appear on track.
Tonight, overnight temps will cool back into the 60s under mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies as the area of high pressure maintains
control of our weather.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday...
The surface ridge axis will push offshore leading to a WSW flow
aiding warming as the mid level ridging strengthens over the
southern Appalachians. Continued mainly sunny, dry, and becoming hot
Thursday. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s N to S. Lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday...
Chances of rain remain minuscule in the extended period. A weak and
moisture-starved surface front edges southeast and into NC on Friday
and progresses south of the area by later Saturday. Concurrently, a
strong upper ridge builds north and parks directly overhead through
the weekend. High temps on Friday will max out in the low to mid
90s, and very modest post-frontal cool air advection in easterly
flow over the weekend will be offset by the building ridge aloft to
allow highs to reach 90 to 95 Sat and Sun. The upper ridge slowly
deamplifies, but maintains its dominance through midweek, with dry
and slightly above normal temperatures - within a couple
degrees north or south of 90 - lingering through mid week.
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --As of 120 PM Wednesday...
There is a high probability that VFR conditions will persist across
central NC through Thursday night. The exception will be pockets
of MVFR/IFR visibility between 09Z-12Z, mainly in the sandhills and
coastal plain. This possibility appears highest in vicinity of KRWI.
Otherwise, an area of high pressure will maintain dry weather with
light wind conditions.
This area of high pressure is expected to maintain its influence over
our region through early next week. This suggest an extended period
of VFR conditions, aside from patchy early morning MVFR/IFR fog or
-- End Changed Discussion --