Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 291841 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 241 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY... SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM BREAKING 80 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER LOW TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HINT AT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE EAST...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WOULD ALSO HELP TO LESSEN ANY FOG THREAT. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED HIGHS. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY... WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY) REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT IS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE EAST CLOSER TO SUNRISE. A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOES NOT MAKE THIS SEEM LIKELY AND SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A PREDOMINANTLY NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LONG TERM: A FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OFFSHORE MAY RETROGRADE BACK OVER EASTERN NC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ELLIS NEAR TERM...ELLIS SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...ELLIS

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