Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 280655 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 255 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM MONDAY... FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS DRIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THIS HAS ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO BECOME MORE SWLY. AS AIR MASS STABILIZES...EXPECT SFC WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OR CALM THOUGH COULD SEE A STEADY 4-5 MPH WIND IN THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT. THE RESIDUAL DRY AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO COOL APPRECIABLY EARLY THIS EVENING AFTER HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MID 40S LIKELY AT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 220 PM MONDAY... SWLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TUE AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DEEPEN TUE...IN A TIGHTENING MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BE FORECAST TO LIE INVOF THE APPALACHIAN WEST SLOPES BY 12Z WED. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON(HIGHEST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE)AND WILL NOT ONLY MAKE TUESDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK BUT WILL ALSO VERGE UPON RECORD MAX TERRITORY(FOR LIST OF RECORDS SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH LATE TUE NIGHT-EARLY WED...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS MORE STRONGLY SUPPORTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES IN THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 252 AM TUESDAY... TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY ON SATURDAY... BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW... AND LIMITED ANTECEDENT MOISTURE... POINT TO A DRY PASSAGE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A 1032 MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY TO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY... BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FROST LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING... WITH A PROBABLE FREEZE ACROSS TEH PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST... AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .CLIMATE... RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28TH: MAX HI-MIN RDU 86/1919 69/1984 GSO 86/1919 64/1919 FAY 87/1919 65/2010 && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY... OBSERVATIONAL AND FORECAST DATA SUGGEST AN AREA OF STRATUS BETWEEN 100-500 FT...AS WELL AS POCKETS OF FOG - INCLUDING SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS - WILL DEVELOP NORTH FROM EAST-CENTRAL SC THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS AND FOG ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KFAY/KRDU/KRWI...AND IF IT INDEED OCCURS...IT WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO LIFT/DISPERSE (NOT UNTIL BETWEEN 15-17Z) OWING TO A STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSION FROM THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE SUNSET MON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 6-12 KT RANGE...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT WESTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK: STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED...PRIMARILY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THEN THE COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT EASTERN TERMINALS - AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC WED...INTO WED EVENING AT EASTERN SITES. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...CBL/MWS LONG TERM...SEC CLIMATE...CBL AVIATION...MWS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.