Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 120558 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 157 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1005 PM FRIDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY...THOUGH WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND PW NOW DOWN TO AROUND INCH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...IF NOT CALM OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL A RIBBON OF MOISTURE AROUND 925 EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAOBS ALONG THE NC COAST...AND THE RAP IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT ADVECTS THIS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHER NWP ARE NOT NEARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH STRATUS AND SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG MORE LIKELY INTO THE PIEDMONT UNDER THE DRY AIR ALOFT. LOWS 65-70. -BLS FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: EXPECT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD... WITH BELOW NORMAL PW VALUES UNDER 1.2 INCHES AND WARM AND SINKING MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SE CWA... AND ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE... THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL GETTING INTO CENTRAL NC IS VERY LOW... GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE COLUMN EXPECTED. RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE DRY OVER CENTRAL NC... INCLUDING THE SREF WHICH HAS A 10% OR LOWER CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST... AND HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 90... FOLLOWING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THICKNESSES. LOWS SAT NIGHT 66-71 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL START TO RECOVER SOME ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY 1.2-1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW SOME SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF MOSTLY DIURNAL TYPE STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE RATHER LOW. IF ANY PRECIP DOES AFFECT THE AREA...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (FROM CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN) AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEABREEZE. BY SUNDAY...MAX LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1430M...SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 90S (ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND WHICH WOULD TEMPER THE WARMING SOME). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 157 AM SATURDAY... AN ANOMALOUS MID/UPPER TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS SLATED BY THE MODELS TO APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT. WE WILL HAVE TO RAISE POP FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FEATURES. IN ADDITION... A SQUALL LINE POTENTIALLY MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY EVENING OR NIGHT FROM THE NW. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST POP MAY END UP BEING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THIS PERIOD. MODELS ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR OUR REGION IN THE LATEST RUNS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... THE FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN OR COASTAL AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... KEEPING POP UP IN THAT REGION. OTHERWISE... MUCH MORE STABLE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION WED-THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK. LOWS IN THE 60-65 RANGE... WITH HIGHS 80-85 W-F. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 837 PM FRIDAY... FRONT NOW LIES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA... AND THE MAIN BAND OF CLOUDS REMAINS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND INTO SC. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... HOWEVER PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS... CLEARING SKIES... AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOG WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN MVFR VISBYS... AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF IFR AT SITES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY... KRWI AND KFAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE AND A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS WILL HOLD OVER THE WEEKEND... CAUSING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MON... ALTHOUGH RWI/FAY MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-VFR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK SUN AND AGAIN MON. A STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUE/WED. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...32 NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...32 AVIATION...SEC/HARTFIELD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.