Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241416 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .Synopsis...
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An area of high pressure aloft will extend across the region through Tuesday, bringing a period of hot and humid conditions to central NC. Chances for afternoon convection will increase by the latter half of the work week.
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&& .Near Term /through tonight/...
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As of 1015 AM Sunday... Little change needed to the forecast. Continued hot and humid today with minimal convection chances. Temperatures through the column are anomalously warm, more so than yesterday, with very low deep layer shear resulting from the presence of the mid and upper level ridge directly overhead. The deeply dry air is noted well on water vapor imagery, and this should change little today. This factor combined with the warmth aloft (2-3 standard deviations above normal) and the deflection of any moisture or disturbances by the ridge will greatly limit any convection. And any cells that can get going over the higher terrain appear unlikely to drift into the CWA given the weak and unfavorable steering flow. However, the chance for isolated lower-rooted sea breeze convection is still high enough to retain low chance pops over the southeast CWA. No changes are planned for the existing heat advisory over the eastern half of the CWA, although based on high-res dewpoint forecasts and observations of air just aloft (925 mb) that is slightly drier than yesterday (based on upper air data), with mixing we may fall just short of 105+ degree heat index values over portions of the advisory area. Nevertheless, we`re looking at consecutive days of above normal temps and high humidity, with many folks likely to be outdoors today, so as far as impacts are considered, an advisory is still warranted. -GIH Previous discussion from 325 am: An expansive area of high pressure across the southern half of the U.S. will build east across the Carolinas today. The rising heights and associated arming aloft will inhibit convective development across much of central NC. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out in vicinity of Sampson and Wayne counties associated with an inland moving seabreeze, or over our far western-nw periphery from any convection that drifts off the higher terrain. Low level thicknesses today projected to be 7-8m warmer than Saturday, supportive of high temps 2-3 degrees warmer.This suggest high temps solidly in the mid-upper 90s. Heat index values this afternoon will flirt with the 105 degree mark. Plan to maintain current advisory as is, and not expand westward. Tonight, warm and muggy conditions will persist with overnight temps only cooling into the upper 70s after 2 AM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /Monday through Tuesday night/... As of 325 AM Sunday... Little change anticipated for Monday as upper high expected to remain overhead. The continued warming of the atmosphere will maintain decent cap, inhibiting convective development. Max temps comparable to today, in the mid-upper 90s. May need another heat advisory, primarily for locations in the sandhills and coastal plain, dependent upon sfc dewpoints mix out in the afternoon. Tuesday, a minor s/w approaching from the west will weaken the upper high overhead. This lowering of heights, the approach of the slightly cooler air aloft associated with the s/w, and a sfc tough over the Piedmont may be enough to allow for the development of isolated- scattered afternoon convection, mainly north of the I-40/85 corridor late Tuesday afternoon-evening. Elsewhere, isolated convection expected. While there will be more clouds over the north, enough sun will occur to warm temperatures into the mid 90s with heat index values in the 98-103 range. Continued very warm and muggy both Monday night and Tuesday night. Temperatures will likely not cool below 80 degrees until 2 AM or later, with early morning temps starting out in the mid-upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 AM Sunday... Medium range models continue to be in general agreement depicting a mid/upper level ridge located just to our southeast, extending into our region some to start the period, with a general trough to our north. At the surface a weak remnant cold front/surface trough is forecast to sink a bit further southward on Wednesday and help to focus scattered to numerous showers and storms across central NC, with locations across the north standing the best chance of seeing convection (closer to the actual boundary where better coverage is expected). Given this and central NC on the southern fringe of the better westerly mid level flow (maybe around 20-25 kts at 500 mb across the north) we may see some multi-cell clusters of storms. Given this and expected mlcape values of around 1500 J/KG or higher during the afternoon into the evening and expected frontal zone placement we may see a better chance for severe storms on Wednesday than past days (especially across the northern half of the area). Though hard to time disturbances/mcv`s from upstream convection can and will have and impact on the eventual convective chances and placement. High temps on Wednesday are again expected to be above normal despite increasing chances for storms. Expect high temps to range from the lower 90s north to the mid to even upper 90s south, with heat index values from around 100 north to around 103-105 degrees southeast. Lows Wednesday night are expected to generally be in the mid 70s. A general broad trough is expected to develop across our area and points northward as the mid level ridge is forecast to be suppressed a bit further south late week into the weekend. This should lead to scattered showers and storms each afternoon/evening, with more in the way of isolated showers and storms generally expected during the overnight/morning hours. However, with a lack of any airmass change we should still remain hot an humid through the period, with the possibility of heat advisories needed thanks to the number of days with heat index values of 100+ across the eastern/southeastern portions of the area. Highs are generally expected to be in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s. && .Aviation /12Z Sunday through Thursday/... As of 716 AM Sunday... Pockets of MVFR fog will dissipate by 13Z. otherwise, there is a high probability that VFR conditions will persist across central NC through Monday as an area of high pressure aloft strengthens overhead. There is a good probability that VFR conditions will persist through much of the remainder of the work week. Chances for afternoon- evening scattered convection will increase the later half of the week, along with the possibility of early morning fog and low clouds. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ010-011- 025>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS/KRD NEAR TERM...Hartfield/WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...WSS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.