Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KRAH 260212 RRA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1010 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
Strong high pressure aloft will extend across the region through
much of the work week, bringing continued hot and humid conditions
to central NC.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 PM Monday...
We still have heat indices in the 90-95 range at mid-evening from
RDU and FAY eastward through the Coastal Plain. Heat advisories go
back into effect Tuesday, but it should be noted that the same
precautions to beat the heat should be highlighted, even at night.
This is because of the unusually high dew points (mid to upper 70s).
Otherwise... isolated storms are far removed from central and
eastern NC this evening with mid/upper ridging overhead. A slim 10
percent chance of a shower/brief storm will linger from near the
Yadkin River westward through the Mountains overnight. Essentially
no POP needed in the rest of the region with lack of a trigger.
Mostly clear, warm and humid overnight. Lows in the mid 70s, except
70-75 NW-N Piedmont.
.SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday night/...
As of 325 PM Monday...
Shortwave energy over the central part of the country will push
eastward into the OH valley toward the mid-Atlantic/Northeast
through Tue night. While the primary bound of mid level westerlies
will stay well to our north, this wave will help push both the
surface frontal zone and the slightly deeper moisture (as noted on
water vapor imagery) to the SSE toward NC, not quite reaching the
NC/VA border but making enough southward progress to bring a
scattered showers and storms to northern NC. Mid level lapse rates
should be a bit better than today, in the 5.7-6.0 C/km range,
although deep layer shear will remain miniscule as the mid-upper
level ridge axis will continue to extend across the region. Model
forecast CAPE values are expected to remain muted with the continued
warmth aloft, particularly across the southern two-thirds of NC,
closest to the ridge axis. Will bring in late-day low chance pops
across the northern sections of the CWA Tue into early Tue evening,
before coverage drops off through the evening with loss of heating.
See little reason to depart from persistence regarding temps, with
thicknesses remaining well above normal, topped by anomalously high
temps and heights through the column, and high surface dewpoints
holding at or above the low-mid 70s for a good portion of the day.
Will retain highs in the mid-upper 90s, as statistical guidance
supports, with lows again in the mid 70s. These temps again equate
to heat indices near or above 105 over the south and east, so will
go with another heat advisory for Tue for the same areas. These
successive days of hot temps and high humidity without much recovery
at night will exacerbate the risk of heat illnesses heading into mid
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...
Stacked high pressure remains over the southeast for the middle part
of the week bringing no relief to the oppressive heat that has been
plaguing the area for the last several days. Heat indices will be
near or above the 105 degree mark each afternoon across counties
east of highway 1 and heat advisories will most likely be necessary.
There will be a chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms
especially in northern and western areas as the remnants of a
frontal boundary will be across southern VA.
Models differ for the end of the week regarding a low pressure
system that the GFS develops over the mid-Atlantic states which
could provide some opportunity for an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity, particularly across the north, but the ECMWF
solution is far removed from our area and thus it remains drier.
Models are are also indicating a drop in dewpoints for the weekend
and into early next week which while the highs are still expected to
be in the mid-90s the heat indices fall slightly below advisory
criteria with with perhaps of only a high near 90 next Monday with a
cold front on the doorstep to hopefully provide a break from the
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 700 pm Monday...
24-hr TAF Period: Aside from isolated convection that could
potentially affect the RDU/GSO/INT terminals for a brief period of
time prior to ~01Z this evening, in addition to a 1-2 period of IFR
fog/stratus that may develop at the RWI terminal (persistence),
there is high confidence that VFR conditions and light or variable
winds will dominate the TAF period in association with an upper
level ridge centered over the region.
Looking ahead: High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through
mid-week as an upper level ridge remains in place over the southern
CONUS. Diurnal convection will become increasingly possible as the
ridge weakens /week progresses/, with chances near climatology by
late week. -Vincent
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011-
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-