Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251906 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 206 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY... THE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED CIRRUS EVENT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A SHIFT NORTHWARD AND DECREASE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CIRRUS LATE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE W-NW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MID 50S WITH LIGHT SW WIND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACH OF THE VORT MAX FROM THE NW. MILD SW FLOW AND THICKENING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY... A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NC. MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK BUT IN GENERAL THE FIRST WAVE MOVES INTO NC MONDAY MORNING. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME LIFT ABOVE 500 MB BUT BELOW THAT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST STARTING TO DEEPEN. THEREFORE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT BAY. IN GENERAL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIQUID RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO TRACK OF THE LOW BUT EXPECT UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AS A GOOD STARTING POINT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST AND REALLY START TO DEEPEN AND START TO IMPORT A LOT MORE MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR US TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HERE IN CENTRAL NC. THE ATTENTION AT THIS TIME WILL THEN TURN TO A SECONDARY WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL HAVE INITIATED BUT THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME PRECIPIATION. BY 00Z TUESDAY WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE TRIAD...AND DOWN TO RALEIGH BY 06Z TUESDAY. IF SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IS LEFT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE SECONDARY WAVE TO PRODUCE A QUICK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH BUT IT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT AND ALL LIQUID. OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ENDING EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE QUESTION OF POSSIBLE BLACK ICE IS A LOGICAL ONE FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A COUPLE OF THINGS ARE STACKING UP AGAINST THIS AT THIS POINT. FIRST...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...WHICH WAS ALREADY LIGHT AMOUNTS TO BEGIN WITH...SO IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ROADS COULD BE DRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT...VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY NEAR 50 DEGREES WOULD BE HARD TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ICE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW ICY PATCHES BUT OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW 30S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY... TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS (SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS)...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /HIGH PRESSURE/ BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (COOLEST NE). ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY VIA NW FLOW ALOFT WED NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOWS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT FORCING/ MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. FRI-SUN: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS PERIOD AS NW FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR NONE TO LOW...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE DRIER/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1153 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AGAIN LATER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A QUICK RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUE AND WED. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 22-25KT ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...BADGETT

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