Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 192053 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 353 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure over the region will keep a warm front over the SE Coastal Plain tonight. Finally, the front will surge north of the area Tuesday, bringing much warmer temperatures for the rest of the week. Record warm weather is anticipated Wednesday into Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 353 PM Monday... Areas of dense fog likely tonight... We will hold off on an advisory for dense fog until a few hours before the visibilities are expected to fall to 1/4 mile or less on a widespread basis. This should occur across much of the region mid to late evening, with the overnight expected to be very foggy. The Hazardous Weather Outlook has this situation mentioned. The in-situ CAD event is well underway, with a residual surface high pressure centered directly over central NC at 1030 mb. Surface winds were light or calm under the ridge and the temperatures have not move but a few degrees all day. The cool/stable pool is rather deep as well (2-3k feet AGL). As the surface ridge begins to break down tonight and early Tuesday, WAA aloft will continue to increase. This will only increase the temperature difference between the chilly and wet stable surface layer and 2-3k feet above, strengthening the temperature inversion. The continued influx of moisture in the WAA pattern just above the surface will keep the air mass saturated. Stratus/fog is expected to become widespread and dense overnight. Interestingly around the "edges" of the CAD dome, the coastal or warm front is hung up over SE parts of NC. Note the 52 in FAY and 65 at Clinton. Also the temperature difference in Wayne County with 54 versus 64 around Goldsboro. 70s were common along the SE NC beaches, with dew points in the 60s. This boundary should stall or drift back toward the coast with onset of diurnal cooling. Areas of fog, becoming dense tonight. Temperatures should remain steady or slowly rise SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 353 PM Monday... ...Areas of dense fog early... The fog will likely be dense and extensive through mid-morning Tuesday. Finally, the WAA aloft will be allowed to gradually mix down and scour out the stratus/fog during the late morning and afternoon. Also aiding the process will be the increasing heights aloft with the expanding upper ridge. This will lead to sinking and mixing down of drier air from aloft. Highs should be tempered with readings slow to warm in the Piedmont, but earlier clearing in the south will aid warming there. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s expected, with the cooler damp NAM guidance with the slower clearing preferred guidance in the Piedmont Damming Region Tuesday. Low stratus again should be a problem in the Piedmont Tuesday night. Unseasonably moist PW`s expand northward over the region with dew points expected to be in the 50s and lower 60s (SE). If the winds become calm again, then fog may again become an issue or hazard. Lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s (see record high minimums listed below).
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 213 PM Monday... Unseasonable, perhaps record warmth will be the main weather story Wednesday and Thursday, thanks to a 595 ridge off the southeast coast and warm southerly flow on the western side of that ridge. Highs will range from the lower-mid 70s NW to lower 80s SE both days, along with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The next cold front (that`s currently extending from the Great Lakes region southwest to the south central Plains) will slowly drop south into and across NC Thursday evening through Thursday night. It`s possible that some light rain may begin north of the I-85 corridor as early as late afternoon Thursday (which would hold temps there a bit lower than currently forecast), but it appears that the best chance for rain assoc with the fropa and subsequent CAD behind it, will be Thursday evening into Friday morning. After a cloudy damp start to Friday with the CAD in place, the boundary will attempt to lift back north by late-day with southerly flow and warming returning in it`s wake. Temps Friday will be dependent on the timing of the CAD erosion and clouds breaking up and the southerly flow returning. However, right now it looks like locations near the SC border will have the best chance of seeing temps returning to lower 70s, while warming farther north will be delayed, holding in the lower to mid 60s. Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with our area between the sfc high centered to our east and the next cold front moving across the OH and MS valleys. Warm southerly flow between the two and sunshine will help temps climb into the 70s. Then on Sunday the front is expected to cross the region, bringing a chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm to our area, and subsequent cooling trend in the wake of the front for early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 350 PM Monday... 24 Hour TAF Period: LIFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS will become LIFR tonight through 15z/Tuesday. These conditions will only slowly improve Tuesday with light winds. Expect MVFR CIGS at nearly all sites by 18z to 21z, then possibly lowering again toward sunset. Outlook Tuesday night through Friday: Generally VFR conditions with high pressure expected, with the exception of IFR to LIFR conditions with late night to mid-morning fog/stratus.
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&& .CLIMATE... RDU Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 75 1939 62 1939 02/21 76 2011 55 1939 02/22 75 1897 60 1897 02/23 79 1980 57 1962 02/24 81 1982 58 1985 GSO Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------ 02/20 74 1922 56 1939 02/21 74 2011 50 1954 02/22 74 1925 57 1980 02/23 74 2017 52 1922 02/24 79 1982 55 1985 FAY Records: Date | High Year | High Min Year ------------------------------------------- 02/20 82 2014 60 1939 02/21 80 1991 61 1953 02/22 77 2003 56 1989 02/23 80 1922 55 1922 02/24 83 1930 60 1975 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Badgett CLIMATE...RAH

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