Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251338 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 937 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure will extend southward through the region through Tuesday. An area of low pressure will lift northeast along the Southeast US coast on Wednesday, then continue along the Carolina coast Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will move eastward through central NC Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 937 AM Monday... Upper ridging continues to extend along the east coast this morning while an upper low meanders over Bermuda. At the sfc, a high anchored over northeastern PA was extending light nely sfc flow down into central NC. This high will shift off into eastern Canada today, while the upper/sfc low offshore slowly meanders south-southeastward through tonight. This will set up continued enely sfc flow over our area through the near term period. Conditions will remain dry again today but wind gusts should be more subdued (10 to 20 mph at times) and temperatures will be a bit warmer compared to yesterday (highs in the lower 60s). Cloud cover from an upstream system will thicken overnight as thicknesses rise some compared to this morning allowing a bit milder lows in the mid to upper 30s. Given this, and perhaps a little residual stirring tonight, the ambient weather conditions should preclude much of any frost potential.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Monday... Upper ridging will hold on tight along the SE Coast early Tuesday as an upper trough lifts NE across the Mid-Atlantic. By late Tuesday, a deeper trough moving east across TX will help push the ridge east off the coast, with disturbed southwesterly flow aloft approaching western central NC by Tuesday night. At the surface, a deep low across the central Plains will lift NE across the Great Lakes region Tuesday night, with the associated cold front digging SE across the TN Valley. Additionally, a surface low and warm front will lift from the Deep South early Tuesday to near SC Tuesday night. Cloud cover will continue to increase Tuesday with the approaching active weather, however conditions should remain dry during the day, with highs mostly in the 60s. By Tuesday evening, isentropic ascent increasing across the region will help generate rain over portions of the western Piedmont, with precipitation chances increasing across the Triangle by sunrise. Rainfall amounts will be light as precipitation develops, with totals overnight limited to mostly less than one-tenth of an inch. Lows will range from the mid-40s NE to low 50s SW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 305 AM Monday... Wednesday and Thursday: Aloft, a deepening low will lift ENE through southern Ontario and Hudson Bay Wed and Thu. Meanwhile, a s/w within the broad trough will move through the Plains and MS Valley Wed/Wed night then sharpen the trough as it moves through the Southeast US and offshore Thu/Thu night. At the surface, a cold front will approach from the west as the parent low lifts through southern Ontario on Wed. The front should continue eastward into the area Wed night/Thu, with a low developing along it over the Southeast US Wed night then lifting NE along the Southeast/Carolina coast Thu. The front should be through the area by Thu night while the low lifts away from the East Coast, with cool high pressure to the west building into the area. Still expect showers to move into the area ahead of the cold front on Wed, although the better chance for significant rainfall will be Wed night/Thu as the surface low lifts NE along the front, along or inland of the Carolina coast. The low should begin lifting away from the area Thu night, taking the precipitation with it. The big question still remains if, where, and when there will be any surface-based instability and where thunder may be possible. The best chance for it will be over the southern Coastal Plain, but will largely depend on the track of the surface low. The biggest threat will be the accumulated rainfall, which could range from an inch and a half to three and a half inches over a 48 hour period. Highs on Wed could be a little tricky, but for now expect upper 50s along the VA border to around 70 degrees SE. Similar highs expected on Thu, upper 50s north to mid 60s SE. In the wake of the cold front Thu night, lows will drop into the mid 30s to low 40s. Friday onward: Broad sub-tropical ridging will extend northward through the Plains through Sun, with generally nwly to westerly flow aloft over central NC. A few disturbances may track along the ridge axis and through central NC over the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will slide eastward through the Deep South and Southeast Fri and Sat, then offshore Sat night. A W-E oriented frontal zone will develop through the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic on Sun, possibly sinking south into the area Sun night. The forecast remains largely dry Fri and Sat, with some precipitation possible late Sun/Sun night. Expect temperatures to gradually moderate from Fri to Sun. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 610 AM Monday... Small chance a stratus deck moving inland near the NC/SC border this morning could affect KFAY. Otherwise, fairly high confidence in VFR conditions through early Tuesday morning. Surface winds will be light and northeasterly, with FEW/SCT high clouds at times today, increasing in coverage tonight. Outlook: Sub-VFR stratus may develop across portions of the northern Coastal Plain Tue morning. Rain showers and sub-VFR conditions then appear likely at times late Tue through Thu across the region as a few systems traverse central NC. Dry weather and VFR conditions return Fri. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...Luchetti SHORT TERM...JJT LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JJT

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