Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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000
FXUS62 KRAH 251338
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
937 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pressure will extend southward through the region through
Tuesday. An area of low pressure will lift northeast along the
Southeast US coast on Wednesday, then continue along the Carolina
coast Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front will move eastward
through central NC Thursday night.
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.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 937 AM Monday...
Upper ridging continues to extend along the east coast this morning
while an upper low meanders over Bermuda. At the sfc, a high
anchored over northeastern PA was extending light nely sfc flow down
into central NC. This high will shift off into eastern Canada today,
while the upper/sfc low offshore slowly meanders south-southeastward
through tonight. This will set up continued enely sfc flow over our
area through the near term period. Conditions will remain dry again
today but wind gusts should be more subdued (10 to 20 mph at times)
and temperatures will be a bit warmer compared to yesterday (highs
in the lower 60s). Cloud cover from an upstream system will thicken
overnight as thicknesses rise some compared to this morning allowing
a bit milder lows in the mid to upper 30s. Given this, and perhaps a
little residual stirring tonight, the ambient weather conditions
should preclude much of any frost potential.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Monday...
Upper ridging will hold on tight along the SE Coast early Tuesday as
an upper trough lifts NE across the Mid-Atlantic. By late Tuesday, a
deeper trough moving east across TX will help push the ridge east
off the coast, with disturbed southwesterly flow aloft approaching
western central NC by Tuesday night. At the surface, a deep low
across the central Plains will lift NE across the Great Lakes region
Tuesday night, with the associated cold front digging SE across the
TN Valley. Additionally, a surface low and warm front will lift from
the Deep South early Tuesday to near SC Tuesday night. Cloud cover
will continue to increase Tuesday with the approaching active
weather, however conditions should remain dry during the day, with
highs mostly in the 60s.
By Tuesday evening, isentropic ascent increasing across the region
will help generate rain over portions of the western Piedmont, with
precipitation chances increasing across the Triangle by sunrise.
Rainfall amounts will be light as precipitation develops, with
totals overnight limited to mostly less than one-tenth of an inch.
Lows will range from the mid-40s NE to low 50s SW.
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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM Monday...
Wednesday and Thursday: Aloft, a deepening low will lift ENE through
southern Ontario and Hudson Bay Wed and Thu. Meanwhile, a s/w within
the broad trough will move through the Plains and MS Valley Wed/Wed
night then sharpen the trough as it moves through the Southeast US
and offshore Thu/Thu night. At the surface, a cold front will
approach from the west as the parent low lifts through southern
Ontario on Wed. The front should continue eastward into the area Wed
night/Thu, with a low developing along it over the Southeast US Wed
night then lifting NE along the Southeast/Carolina coast Thu. The
front should be through the area by Thu night while the low lifts
away from the East Coast, with cool high pressure to the west
building into the area. Still expect showers to move into the area
ahead of the cold front on Wed, although the better chance for
significant rainfall will be Wed night/Thu as the surface low lifts
NE along the front, along or inland of the Carolina coast. The low
should begin lifting away from the area Thu night, taking the
precipitation with it. The big question still remains if, where, and
when there will be any surface-based instability and where thunder
may be possible. The best chance for it will be over the southern
Coastal Plain, but will largely depend on the track of the surface
low. The biggest threat will be the accumulated rainfall, which
could range from an inch and a half to three and a half inches over
a 48 hour period. Highs on Wed could be a little tricky, but for now
expect upper 50s along the VA border to around 70 degrees SE.
Similar highs expected on Thu, upper 50s north to mid 60s SE. In the
wake of the cold front Thu night, lows will drop into the mid 30s to
low 40s.
Friday onward: Broad sub-tropical ridging will extend northward
through the Plains through Sun, with generally nwly to westerly flow
aloft over central NC. A few disturbances may track along the ridge
axis and through central NC over the weekend. At the surface, high
pressure will slide eastward through the Deep South and Southeast
Fri and Sat, then offshore Sat night. A W-E oriented frontal zone
will develop through the OH Valley and mid-Atlantic on Sun, possibly
sinking south into the area Sun night. The forecast remains largely
dry Fri and Sat, with some precipitation possible late Sun/Sun
night. Expect temperatures to gradually moderate from Fri to Sun.
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.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 610 AM Monday...
Small chance a stratus deck moving inland near the NC/SC border this
morning could affect KFAY. Otherwise, fairly high confidence in VFR
conditions through early Tuesday morning. Surface winds will be
light and northeasterly, with FEW/SCT high clouds at times today,
increasing in coverage tonight.
Outlook: Sub-VFR stratus may develop across portions of the northern
Coastal Plain Tue morning. Rain showers and sub-VFR conditions then
appear likely at times late Tue through Thu across the region as a
few systems traverse central NC. Dry weather and VFR conditions
return Fri.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...JJT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JJT