Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 261421 CCA AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1021 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1016 AM WEDNESDAY... AMPLIFIED FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY... WITH TROUGHING IN THE EAST. FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER COASTAL SC. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA... AND THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF I95 IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS IN THIS MOISTER AIRMASS... WHERE CAPE IS PROGGED TO REACH 500-1000 J/KG. HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S NW TO SE. SREF PROBABILITIES HINTING AT BETTER COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY... FOR THURSDAY MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD THAN ON WEDNESDAY AND THUS HAVE CONFINED POPS TO MAINLY THE I-95 CORRIDOR FOR THURSDAY WITH THE MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN HAS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPANDING BACK TO THE WEST BUT IT IS HARD TO GIVE THIS MUCH CREDENCE WITHOUT ANY REAL DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL JET ENTRANCE REGION WILL BE OVER THE CWA WITH THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THE LESS FAVORABLE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE TRIAD. COUPLE THIS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND VERY LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE RESULT IS A FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EAST AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS SOME LOWER THICKNESS VALUES WORK INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH TO SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO EASTERN CANADA...WEAK TROUGHINESS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH SHOULD NUDGE THE LINGERING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD...REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNDER INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER MTNS AND FTHLS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INVOF OF THE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY. BY SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD RETURN TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTION S OF THE STATE WHERE THE APPROACH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES COULD KICK THE LINGERING WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS 65 TO 70. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL GREATLY DETERMINE THE EVOLUTION TRACK OF TC ERIKA. REGARDLESS...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE MOIST AIRMASS. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 630 AM WEDNESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS KRWI AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS COULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE SOME POCKETS OF LIFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE AREA AND KRWI WILL EXPERIENCE LESS THEN 500 FOOT CEILINGS PROBABLY THROUGH 12Z IF NOT LATER. VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH LITTLE THREAT OF RAIN FOR NOW. LATER IN THE DAY EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...WITH KRWI AND KFAY ONCE AGAIN THE MOST LIKELY AFFECTED HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST IN THE VICINITY OF KRDU NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LONG TERM: WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...TERMINALS ALONG AND EAST OF ROUTE 1 WILL BE UNDER CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. TRIAD TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY VFR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND WHEN THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD RETROGRADE A LITTLE AS A WEAK LOW FORMS SOUTH OF THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...30/ELLIS SHORT TERM...ELLIS LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...ELLIS

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