Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 151841 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 240 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift offshore this afternoon. A cold front will cross the area late tonight through early Monday. Cool high pressure will build in behind Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 240 PM Sunday... High pressure across the area will continue to weaken and shift offshore this afternoon in advance of a pair of shortwave troughs that will drive a cold front southeast through the area between 06 to 15z Monday. A hostile environment east of the mountains that features low-level downslope component and very weak instability with MLCAPE of only 100 to 200 J/Kg will result in very light rainfall, with rainfall amounts expected to average a tenth or less, providing little to no relief to the growing D0 and D1 drought conditions across central NC. Lows overnight will be governed by the timing of the cold front into the area, with the bisecting front resulting in lows ranging from upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... As of 130 AM Sunday... Long-awaited cold front will be moving swiftly across central NC early Monday, providing us our only chance of showers through next weekend. Strong low level convergence associated with this front, sadly, will not realize anywhere near its full potential for producing much-needed widespread and significant rain, as passage will be too quick and early in the day to tap instability needed for deeper convection. There will be line of perhaps vigorous showers reaching the Triad around daybreak, with some stronger showers in the Triangle/Fayetteville/I95 corridor during the early afternoon, but the timing window for rain at any location will be limited - probably no more than 2-3 hours as the front races southeast. As such, amounts will be on the order of 1/4 inch...with some luckier folk receiving 1/2 inch. Clearing will quickly follow the front, but the temperature rises will be delayed and hampered by cold air advection which will accompany the clearing. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM Sunday... High pressure will settle in Monday night into Tuesday, bringing drier and much cooler temperatures to the region. The high will linger over the region through the end of the week leading to a gradual warming trend as the airmass modifies under strong insolation. The coolest time period will be Monday night through Tuesday night with lows in the 40s and highs mainly in the mid 60s. Readings will warm a couple of degrees each day thereafter, reaching the upper 70s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 PM Sunday... Ceilings have finally lifted to VFR across the area and will remain VFR through the evening. A surface cold front moving rapidly southeast through the area between 06 to 15z Monday will bring MVFR ceilings and patchy/isolated rain showers across the area. Additionally, areas of fog could develop ahead of the front, primarily across eastern terminals(KFAY and KRWI)between 06 to 12z. Post-frontal cold dry air advection will bring a return to VFR conditions to KINT, KGSO and KRDU between 12 to 15z, and at KRWI and KFAY between 15 to 18z. Occasional NWLY wind gusts into the teens can also be expected Monday afternoon. Dry VFR conditions will rule through Friday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...JF/RE LONG TERM...NRR AVIATION...CBL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.