Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 211749 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 150 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL TEMPORARY STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY... TODAY: SURFACE LOW EAST OF HATTERAS ATTM WILL LIFT RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS ITS MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS PICKED UP AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUN AS DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. TONIGHT: VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT...PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY 06 TO 15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LOWS OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NW TO MID/UPPER 60S SE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING (00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU... INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A MOISTURE DEPRIVED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z-15Z MONDAY. ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY RETURN BY LATE WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COAST.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...PWB AVIATION...CBL

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