Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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800 FXUS62 KRAH 241840 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 240 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will extend across the region through the rest of the week, with slowly rising temperatures and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1045 AM Wednesday... Little change required to the near term forecast. An area of high pressure extending across central NC will result in hot and dry conditions this afternoon. A thin layer of moisture trapped below a mid level subsidence inversion will result in patches of mid level cloudiness at times. Subsidence and a relatively dry air mass aloft will inhibit convective development across most of the area. The exception will be in vicinity of the Yadkin River valley where a stray shower or storm may develop in a narrow zone of low level moisture convergence. Afternoon temps in the upper 80s to around 90 appear on track. Tonight, overnight temps will cool back into the 60s under mostly clear/partly cloudy skies as the area of high pressure maintains control of our weather. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 AM Wednesday... The surface ridge axis will push offshore leading to a WSW flow aiding warming as the mid level ridging strengthens over the southern Appalachians. Continued mainly sunny, dry, and becoming hot Thursday. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s N to S. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 240 PM Wednesday... Fri-Sun: Quite warm to start this period, followed by moderating temps, and very low precip chances throughout. Strong mid level ridging will remain the dominant weather feature heading into the weekend, with its center drifting slowly from the western Carolinas early Fri ENE to over eastern VA/NE NC by Sun, all the while maintaining dry and stable mid-upper levels over our area. A surface cold front approaching from the NW Fri will drop into and through NC over the weekend, causing a dip in thicknesses from much above normal Fri/Sat to near or just slightly above normal starting Sun. With a weakening low level wind field and no opportunity for moisture influx at any level, any convection ahead of or with the front will be feeble and very isolated, likely limited to a few cells drifting slowly off the higher terrain (extreme NW CWA) and along an inland-drifting sea breeze (far SE CWA) late in the day Fri, with perhaps a bit better (but still low) coverage Sat afternoon over the southwest CWA near weak upglide and low level mass convergence near the Piedmont trough. The front settles to our south Sun with a high pressure ridge centered off New England nosing narrowly to the SW through central NC, supporting a drop in max temps from the mid 90s Fri/Sat to around 90 or the lower 90s beginning Sun. Mon-Wed: Starting Mon, the mid level ridge weakens and flattens yet continues to extend W-E across the region. Low level flow from the east or ENE may be sufficiently strong and onshore-directed to boost low level moisture profiles and increase diurnal sea-breeze convection chances in the SE CWA on Mon, although the limited deep moisture should keep coverage low. Models still vary quite a bit with the tropical wave now over the northern Leeward Islands which may be driven toward the WNW by the mid level ridge and may affect a portion of FL and/or the Gulf Coast by early to mid week. Model solutions continue to range widely, with the GFS remaining weak with an erratic motion and the so-far-strongest ECMWF solution showing a slowing trend with the 12z/24 run, which all results in reduced confidence in any details this far out. At the very least, the increasing easterly low-mid level component should draw increasing amounts of Atlantic moisture into the eastern Carolinas, and we should see an increase in daily showers and a few storms mainly east as we head into midweek. We will, of course, continue to monitor the tropical wave, although by all accounts it will not be a direct factor in our weather through at least Wed. With thicknesses holding a bit above normal, temps are expected to peak around 90 to the lower 90s Mon-Wed, with lows mostly in the lower 70s. -GIH && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 120 PM Wednesday... There is a high probability that VFR conditions will persist across central NC through Thursday night. The exception will be pockets of MVFR/IFR visibility between 09Z-12Z, mainly in the sandhills and coastal plain. This possibility appears highest in vicinity of KRWI. Otherwise, an area of high pressure will maintain dry weather with light wind conditions. This area of high pressure is expected to maintain its influence over our region through early next week. This suggest an extended period of VFR conditions, aside from patchy early morning MVFR/IFR fog or low clouds. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...WSS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.