Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221705 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 100 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will remain in control through Friday. A resultant moist southwesterly flow will bring very humid conditions into Saturday. Low pressure is forecast to track over the central Appalachians eastward across VA on Friday night and Saturday morning. The trailing cold front will move through central NC late Saturday or Saturday night, likely stalling over the SE Coastal Plain. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 255 AM EDT Thursday... A very moist SSW flow will deliver a low deck of stratus to our region in the next few hours. These stratus should be slow to burn off this morning, but they are expected to lift out between mid morning and noon. The influx of moisture is in response to the surface high located over Bermuda and "Cindy" over the western Gulf Coast. The deep southerly flow was tapping into very rich moist air from the Gulf and driving it northward into NC. The ridge axis extended from NW to SE across central NC. As this ridge axis slowly retreats NE this morning, the low level moisture will overspread all the region. This afternoon and evening, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The higher chance is expected over the western Piedmont where the tap of deepening moisture is expected. The main issue will be the extent of cloudiness and how much will limit destabilization this afternoon. There are mixed signals from the models/guidance; however, the more aggressive models with the influx of low level moisture appear to be winning out early this morning. Therefore, variably cloudy skies with highs only in the upper 70s to lower 80s is expected over the W-NW Piedmont today. To the east of this area, skies are expected to become partly sunny. MLCAPES near 1500 J/KG should result as readings reach the mid to upper 80s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop especially near the edge of the best heating north and the extensive cloudiness SW. Areas from FAY to RDU to Roxboro should be near or close to this differential heating boundary. Tonight... Showers associated with the deep southerly flow should affect the Mountains. Just how far east this deep moisture and showers end up is questionable. It appears that the Yadkin River or a county or two either west or east, may be the farthest east the showers get. Training showers from S to N should lead to locally heavy rain - but this may end up just west of the Triad overnight. Otherwise, widely scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms may occur at any time overnight. Low stratus are again expected to envelop the region. Lows generally 70-75 (5-8 degrees above normal) indicative of the very moist flow. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Thursday... There is a marginal risk of a few of the storms becoming severe, mainly in the NW Piedmont Friday afternoon and night, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Models continue to speed up the remnants of Cindy, with the timing of closest approach to NW NC expected Friday night and early Saturday tracking just to our west and north. The system`s warm front is expected to lift into VA early Friday, taking the chance of morning showers/storms northward out of our region. Then Friday is expected to become partly sunny in the warm sector with breezy SW winds to 20-25 MPH. After extensive morning stratus, highs should rebound quickly in the warm sector reaching the lower to mid 90s SE, with mid to upper 80s NW. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening. More widespread convection may affect the Triad late day or Friday evening, with details dependent on many variables including the eventual track/strength of the remnants of Cindy Friday night. There is a marginal risk of a few of the storms becoming severe, mainly in the NW Piedmont Friday afternoon and night, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Lows will be in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Thursday... Model guidance is coming into better agreement showing the remnants of Cindy begin absorbed in an approaching cold front Saturday morning, with the main remaining circulation associated with Cindy passing to the north of central NC Saturday afternoon across the Mid- Atlantic region. The trailing cold front is expected to move across the area on Saturday, before stalling near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible on Saturday, with any isolated strong to severe storm limited to eastern and southern portions of our area. The main heavy rain threat is now expected to pass to the north of the area, in the vicinity of the circulation. In addition to any convection, we may see some gusty winds Saturday morning across the area (especially across eastern portions of the area) as the strong low level jet shifts across the region. High temps Saturday are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dry weather is now generally expected for a large portion of the area for the rest of the weekend, outside of a lingering chance of some isolated showers/storms across our far southeastern portions of our forecast area. High temps behind the weak cold front area expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. A stronger disturbance aloft in the cyclonic flow across the eastern half of the country is expected to approach and move across the area early next week, along with an associated cold front. This will give us another chance for some showers and storms on Monday into Monday night, along with a push of drier and cooler air, with highs by Tuesday possibly struggling to reach 80 across the Piedmont and some low temps dropping into the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Monday/...
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As of 100 PM Thursday... Patchy light rain and predominantly MVFR ceilings will spread from the southwest progressively east over central NC this afternoon. Conditions will persist into early tonight, with ceilings lowering to IFR after midnight through 12-13Z tomorrow morning, with widespread light rain or drizzle. Southwest winds around 6 knots overnight will prevent dense fog from forming, although MVFR 3-5 miles are possible in the 08-13Z time frame. Drying from the south will begin to lift conditions across the south by 15Z, with potential for MVF ceilings to hang around through 18Z in the north. Looking ahead beyond 18Z Friday... another period of late night stratus is expected to bring IFR CIGS again Friday morning. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected Fri-Sun, with a chance of MVFR conditions mainly during the afternoon and evening Friday due to a shower or thunderstorm.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett/mlm

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