-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 280642
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COAST DURING THEN EVENING.

EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DYNAMICS... WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS...THAT IS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ONCE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...IT
WILL SPELL THE END OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE NC PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS EASTWARD
PUSH OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN MORE SO ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE APT TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INVOF THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN
THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES(SAMPSON-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SCOTLAND-HOKE). ANY
STORMS ROOTED IN THE 40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDER WIND GUSTS AND
EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY OR BEFORE
SUNSET...OWING TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EASTERN PUSH OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR FEED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO MID 90S
SE. NOTICEABLY COOLER LESS HUMID AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...

BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY
CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER GROUP WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO.

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL