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000
FXUS62 KRAH 150200
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1000 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled across portions of central North Carolina will
gradually wash out and dissipate by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...

A series of upstream mid-level shortwaves over the Tn Valley will
continue to progress east-northeast across the region overnight and
through the day on Tuesday , where it will interact with
unseasonably high PWATS pooling along the lingering frontal zone
stalled across the area. Thus, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms could pop up anywhere overnight, with the potential
for the best coverage across N/NW Piedmont, where episodic DPVA will
augment forcing and offset weaker instability.

Lows tonight in the lower/mid 70s, warmest S/SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

With little change in the synoptic pattern, expect conditions
similar to today, though a fair amount of uncertainty persists
w/regard to the spatial/temporal extent of cloud cover, convection,
and high temperatures. Like today, convective coverage/timing may
largely be dictated by small amplitude waves in WSW/SW flow aloft.
With the above in mind, will indicate a 50% chance of showers/storms
across the area, primarily during the aft/eve hours, with highs in
the mid 80s (N) to ~90F (S) and lows in the lower/mid 70s. -Vincent

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM Monday...

A weak wave in the otherwise zonal flow aloft will provide support
for an uptick in the shower/tstm coverage on Wednesday, with the
existing sfc trough across the Carolinas to serve as a low level
focus. Once this wave exits to our east, the sfc trough will also
move eastward, and subsidence in the wake of these features should
set the stage for a mostly dry and warmer daytime on Thursday.  This
break in the precip chances will be short-lived, as the next wave in
the fast upper flow will approach Thursday night, along with the
next sfc front which is progged to move into the western Carolinas
Friday morning. Once again, look for an uptick in shower/tstm
coverage along and ahead of the front, so chance PoPs are in order
for central NC on Friday and again on Saturday, but highest PoPs on
Saturday across our eastern half given the boundary positioned
across the center of the state.

During the latter half of the weekend, a more substantial short wave
trough will move across the Mid-Atlantic region, thus enhancing our
rain chances yet again Saturday night into mid-day Sunday, before
shifting east and pushing the cold front to our south by late
Sunday.

Looking ahead to next Monday and eclipse weather...of course long-
range forecasts are always subject to change, but todays models
suggest at least partly cloudy conditions for central NC, with
veering low level flow on the southern periphery of high pressure
transiting the Mid-Atlantic. Rain chances appear to increase
southward and closer to the aforementioned cold front stalled to our
south.

Temps during the long term period will be largely a function of
cloud coverage and rain chances.  On the days with lesser of both,
look for highs up around 90, but on the cloudy/wetter days, highs in
the mid-upr 80s.  Uniform low temps, in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 840 PM Monday...

24-hr TAF Period: Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms
will be possible this evening into early Tuesday morning, with
associated sub-VFR conditions. Another round of IFR/LIFR stratus is
expected late tonight/Tuesday morning. Cigs will slowly lift to
VFR/around VFR late morning into Tuesday afternoon. Isolated to
scattered showers will again be possible Tuesday late morning into
the afternoon again, with gusty winds and sub-VFR conditions
possible with any convection.

Outlook: With relatively little change in the synoptic pattern,
adverse conditions associated with diurnal convection (primarily 18-
03Z) and early morning stratus (primarily 06-15Z) are likely to
persist through mid-late week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Vincent
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...BSD/Vincent