-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
330
FXUS62 KRAH 270651
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure will extend across the Mid Atlantic
region today, then slowly shift offshore toward Bermuda over the
weekend and into early next week. A cold front will approach our
area from the northwest by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Friday...

* There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across much of central NC this afternoon and evening.

Aloft, high pressure will continue ridging wwd across the mid-
Atlantic, while the weak area of low pressure drifts nwwd to over
the Southeast US today, lingering there through tonight. Weak
perturbations around the mid-level low crossing the area this
aft/eve could help kick off showers and storms, especially along
residual surface boundaries and convergence zones. The RAP shows
SBCAPE values ranging from around 1500 J/Kg in the west to around
3000 J/Kg in the east this evening, while the NAM generally peaks in
the 2000 to 3000 J/Kg range area-wide. PWATs of 1.7 to 1.8 inches
are also expected. Wind profiles remain relatively weak, with bulk
shear values still less than 20 kts. However, 0-3 km lapse rates are
still forecast to be strong, so isolated damaging wind gusts are
possible. The storms will likely again be pulse in nature and
isolated to widely scattered in coverage. Any convection that
develops should taper off with loss of heating this eve.

As for temperatures, max low-level thicknesses continue to decrease,
peaking around 1430-1435 meters this evening. Highs today still 5-10
degrees above normal, in the low to mid 90s expected, with heat
index values of up to 102 degrees. Lows tonight should be in the low
to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 250 AM Friday...

* Status quo, with storm chances peaking mid afternoon through the
  evening, highest over the Piedmont and W Sandhills.

* Continued hot and humid.

More of the same is expected Sat/Sat night, with very little change
in the overall regime featuring above normal PW and very light flow
through the column. Recent RAP runs show moderate to high SBCAPE in
the afternoon through evening, albeit with poor deep layer bulk
shear. The weak upper low is expected to be over GA, with the
offshore-centered ridge extending into E NC, and the resulting SSE
mid level flow should draw weak vorticity into our SW sections and
into W NC through the afternoon/evening, although the weak flow will
lead to just modest DPVA. With the weak surface trough holding in
place down through the W Piedmont, subtle low level mass convergence
in conjunction with residual outflows and other discontinuities
should serve as foci for storm initiation by early to mid afternoon.
Storms are expected to be discrete or clusters, slow-moving with
mergers, which increases the chance for localized heavy downpours
and raises the risk for isolated flooding given PWs in the 90th
percentile. And the high CAPE and potential high DCAPE will bring a
threat for isolated damaging downburst wind gusts, especially in the
west half where storm coverage will be highest. The RAP and HREF
probabilities continue to focus the greater coverage of convection
over our W, and will carry 35-50% pops there, with slightly lower
pops in the E. Storms should slowly dwindle in coverage and
intensity from late evening into the early overnight hours as CAPE
lowers and CINH takes over. Highs will still be warm, upper 80s to
mid 90s, with lows 70-76. -GIH
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 AM Friday...

* Little change in the pattern through Mon, with continued above
  normal temps and isold/sct daily late-day storms, highest NW.

* Convection chances increase for Tue/Wed, then decrease Thu, with
  near normal temps, and slightly lower humidity possible Thu.

Weak surface troughing will hold over the NC Piedmont Sun into Mon,
as the mid level Bermuda-centered ridge extends into E NC, and
what`s left of the baggy mid level trough holds over the Mid South
and interior Southeast. While we`ll likely see minor day-over-day
changes in sensible weather Sun/Mon, the overall pattern of at least
moderate SBCAPE each afternoon, poor low-mid level flow yielding low
bulk shear, and elevated PW near the 90th percentile will continue
to support daily isolated to scattered storms, with the higher
values in the NW where storms may slide in from the higher terrain.
Despite the presence of the weak upper trough, the flow through the
column will be too weak for much in the way of dynamics or
kinematics to force ascent, and the threat for organized strong
storms should be low. Any storms should instead develop as discrete
pulse-type cells, meandering and congealing into clusters and
focused largely on outflows and zones of differential heating or
land use/soil moisture discontinuities. Largely following
persistence, expect pops to peak in the mid afternoon through late
evening Sun and Mon, with isolated fog/stratus patches near
daybreak, and above normal highs in the low-mid 90s as low level
thicknesses stay around 10 m above normal. Heat index values
shouldn`t reach extreme levels but will stay elevated, topping out
from around 100F to near 104F mainly along and E of Hwy 1. Lows in
the low to mid 70s.

By Tue into Wed, a broad northern stream trough will shift through
ON/QC and Great Lakes into the Northeast, leading to an increase in
mid level flow over the Mid Atlantic region as a surface cold front
gradually approaches from the NW, with a preceding sharpening of the
Piedmont trough. This improving flow aloft along with a prefrontal
uptick in PW will prompt greater and earlier storm coverage Tue/Wed,
with more cloudiness. Expect coverage to become more numerous across
the N and W Tue, before shifting to the E and S sections Wed. The
surface front may settle SE into central NC or over our southeast
sections Thu, allowing the better storm chances to shift to our S
and E Thu with only low chances at most across the N and W, although
confidence in these details is not high, especially given that
synoptic frontal passages through central NC during summer`s peak
are uncommon. Will have slight chance pops N and W, with near-climo
chances in the SE. Humidity should be a bit better, with some
dewpoints in the 60s expected to work into the Piedmont. Temps
should be within a couple degrees of normal, with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 AM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: Winds should be generally calm to light through
daybreak, increasing a couple/few kts during the day and becoming
mainly sly during the aft. While most of the period should be VFR,
MVFR cigs are expected to again develop at KRWI in the pre-dawn
hours. Any restrictions that materialize should clear up after
daybreak. Expect scattered showers/storms again this aft/eve,
however exactly where and when is of lower confidence. Have put
mention in at the ern terminals for now, but cannot rule it out
anywhere.

Outlook: There will be the chance for diurnally driven convection
and early morning fog/low stratus through the weekend and into early
next week. Otherwise, VFR conditions should generally prevail.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 27      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       77 (1998)
June 28      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       78 (1914)
June 29      78 (1914)      74 (2024)       76 (1969)
June 30      80 (1936)      77 (2024)       79 (1936)

Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 27      104 (1954)      102 (1954)     102 (1998)
June 28      100 (1959)       99 (1959)     105 (1954)
June 29      105 (2012)      102 (2012)     106 (2012)
June 30      105 (2012)      101 (1959)     102 (2012)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH