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713
FXUS62 KRAH 151424
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1020 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the region will bring dry weather today. A
cold front will cross the area late tonight and Monday,
bringing a chance of rain. This front will usher in much cooler
air for Tuesday into Wednesday, with dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 10 AM Sunday...

Stacked ridging across the area this morning will shift east and
offshore in advance of a pair of shortwave troughs that will drive a
cold front southeast into the area overnight.

HRRR soundings indicate slow/gradual improvement in the widespread
layer of dense ground fog that`s engulfing much of the NC Piedmont,
with expectations that we will begin to see some significant
improvements in visibility restrictions after 11 am with fog lifting
and dissipating allowing for partly to mostly sunny skies for the
afternoon. Afternoon sunshine combined with low-level SWLY flow
ahead of the approaching front will help to bolster temperatures
back into the lower to mid 80s.

Surface cold front and accompanying broken band of showers will
rapidly spill east across the NC mountains between 06z to 12z and
progged to bisect central NC by daybreak, likely making for a
"messy" Monday morning rush hour commute for the Triad and parts of
the Triangle. Environment east of the mountains will greatly lack
in instability, which will limit rainfall amounts of generally 0.25"
or less.

Lows overnight will be governed by the timing of the cold
front into the area, with the bisecting front resulting in a larger
spread in overnight lows than normal. Lows ranging from mid 50s NW
to mid 60s SE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Sunday...

Long-awaited cold front will be moving swiftly across central
NC early Monday, providing us our only chance of showers through
next weekend. Strong low level convergence associated with this
front, sadly, will not realize anywhere near its full potential
for producing much-needed widespread and significant rain, as
passage will be too quick and early in the day to tap
instability needed for deeper convection. There will be line of
perhaps vigorous showers reaching the Triad around daybreak,
with some stronger showers in the Triangle/Fayetteville/I95
corridor during the early afternoon, but the timing window for
rain at any location will be limited - probably no more than 2-3
hours as the front races southeast. As such, amounts will be on
the order of 1/4 inch...with some luckier folk receiving 1/2
inch. Clearing will quickly follow the front, but the
temperature rises will be delayed and hampered by cold air
advection which will accompany the clearing. Highs will top out
in the mid to upper 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

High pressure will settle in Monday night into Tuesday,
bringing drier and much cooler temperatures to the region. The
high will linger over the region through the end of the week
leading to a gradual warming trend as the airmass modifies
under strong insolation. The coolest time period will be Monday
night through Tuesday night with lows in the 40s and highs
mainly in the mid 60s. Readings will warm a couple of degrees
each day thereafter, reaching the upper 70s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 1020 AM Sunday...

Expect slow/gradual improvement of fog/stratus between 15z and 16z
Sunday, with VFR conditions expected beyond 17z, with a breeze from
the SW at 7-12 kts.

Looking beyond 00z Mon, VFR conditions will hold through the
evening, but MVFR cigs and patchy rain will move in NW to SE between
05z and 08z Monday. INT/GSO will trend back to VFR as dry air moves
in behind the front shortly after 12z Mon, while RDU/RWI/FAY won`t
improve to VFR until after 16z Mon. VFR conditions are likely late
Mon through Thu as dry and cool high pressure builds in from the W
and NW.
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&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for     NCZ007-
008-021>025-038>041-073>077-083>086-088.
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&&

$$ SYNOPSIS...JF NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...JF/RE LONG TERM...NRR
AVIATION...JF/HARTFIELD