Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 130656 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 255 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY... TODAY: MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE LINGER WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH ANOTHER WARM AND GENERALLY DRY DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER... WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA IN THE INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A GOOD CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 850-700 MB EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS TODAY. THOUGH CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME WEAK CAPE BELOW THE INVERSION. FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH THIS WILL JUST LEAD TO SCATTERED TO AT TIME BROKEN FLAT AFTERNOON CUMULUS. IF ANY SHOWERS WERE TO DEVELOP EXPECT THEY WOULD BE QUITE BRIEF. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THIS TIME... THUS NO MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S AGAIN... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATION ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST TOUCHING THE MID 80S. TONIGHT AND MONDAY: A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY HELPING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS TODAY... APPROACHING CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS ON MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON (AS MLCAPE MAY APPROACH UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG... BEST IN THE WEST AND SOUTH) INTO THE EVENING IN THE STRENGTHENING WAA AND POSSIBLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60S FOR TONIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 E.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY... THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM... CONSISTING OF A PROGRESSIVE BUT DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WAVY SURFACE BOUNDARY... IS STILL TARGETED BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION TUESDAY. THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY. THE MAIN BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING (MAINLY EAST). POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH AND BEHIND THIS TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY SPELLED OUT QUITE WELL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. AFTER THE WET PERIOD IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE FROST THREAT IN THE MIDDLE... THE END OF THE WEEK STILL HAS SOME CHANCE OF BEING WET AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY... AFTER THE WET PERIOD IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE FROST THREAT IN THE MIDDLE... THE END OF THE WEEK STILL HAS SOME CHANCE OF BEING WET AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS COULD POSSIBLY EVEN LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LOW STATUS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING... AS ANY PATCHY STRATUS WOULD BE RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AND BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE... IF ANY DEVELOPS AT ALL. OTHERWISE... EXPECT SOME FLAT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 KFT RANGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE 10 TO 13 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON TIME FRAME OF UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... LOW STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER. THEN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR WED INTO FRI AS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BSD/32 NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...32 LONG TERM...32 AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD

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