Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221607 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1207 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY... SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT)...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME DEGREE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL OCCUR CLOSER TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY AND INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND STARTING IN THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND CORRESPONDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE COAST COULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON THE PIEDMONT TRIAD TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST TO IMPINGE ON PARTS OF CENTRAL NC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AREAS EAST OF ROUTE 1 COULD REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT POTENTIAL THUNDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW. THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15 KT THIS MORNING... WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM BY SUNSET. A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...06-12Z SAT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRESSURE RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC. LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...VINCENT

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