Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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355 FXUS62 KRAH 290731 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will remain offshore into the early part of the week. A cold front will slowly cross North Carolina Tuesday into Wednesday, then get hung up along the Atlantic coastline into the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 305 AM Sunday... Another round of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms is expected today. Coverage should be similar to yesterday, with the potential for storms in all locations, but greater coverage to the west than to the east. The convection on both Friday and Saturday had several outflow boundaries, and any remnants of these boundaries will also serve as triggers for today`s convection. Without a change in air mass, highs and lows should be similar to yesterday`s, with highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... As of 305 AM Sunday... Minimal difference between today`s convection and Monday`s convection, although models are suggesting slightly less coverage along the Interstate 95 corridor. The Storm Prediction Center cites steep low-level lapse rates despite weak deep-layer flow/shear as the primary reason for a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms in the Triad during the afternoon. Expect one more day with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 330 AM Sunday.. A shortwave trough moving through the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region will push a cold front and associated convection into the area on Tues. Ahead of the front, diurnal heating will support weak to moderate instability depending on the timing of storms and prefrontal cloud cover, but the overall upper-level forcing for ascent will be weak, and mid-level wind fields are only on the order of 20-25kt. So while a severe threat will likely exist, it does not look unusually strong at the moment. The cold front or effective front will push through the area Tues evninig, but is likely to hang up over eastern NC and provide some additional focus for storms Wed before another weak front is forecast to push into the area and provide a reinforcing shot of relatively drier air for the latter half of the week. This should limit storms Thu-Sat and keep heat indices mostly in the 90s despite high temps recovering into the low to mid 90s.
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&& .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1235 AM Sunday... 24 hour TAF period: Overnight, RWI is the most likely location to have visibility restrictions due to rain in the immediate vicinity of the airport on Saturday afternoon. RDU also cannot be ruled out for a visibility restriction - only a trace of rain was observed at RDU, but multiple inches of rain fell to the northwest in Durham. During daytime hours, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with the highest confidence in coverage at INT/GSO. Outlook: Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue on Monday. A cold front will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday at most sites, pushing southeast to FAY/RWI on Wednesday. Shower/thunderstorm coverage will decrease Thursday, with INT/GSO likely remaining dry and only a chance of precipitation at other sites. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...Green LONG TERM...BLS AVIATION...Green