-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 130656
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY: MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TODAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE LINGER WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH ANOTHER WARM AND GENERALLY
DRY DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY IN THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. HOWEVER... WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA IN THE INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A GOOD CAPPING INVERSION
AROUND 850-700 MB EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS TODAY. THOUGH CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME WEAK CAPE BELOW THE INVERSION.
FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH THIS WILL JUST LEAD TO SCATTERED TO AT TIME
BROKEN FLAT AFTERNOON CUMULUS. IF ANY SHOWERS WERE TO DEVELOP EXPECT
THEY WOULD BE QUITE BRIEF. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME... THUS NO MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S AGAIN... WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW LOCATION ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST TOUCHING THE MID 80S.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY: A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY HELPING A SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS TODAY...
APPROACHING CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS ON MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON (AS MLCAPE MAY APPROACH UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG... BEST IN THE
WEST AND SOUTH) INTO THE EVENING IN THE STRENGTHENING WAA AND
POSSIBLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 60S FOR TONIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
BIT COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS. THUS...
WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 E.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM... CONSISTING OF A PROGRESSIVE BUT DEEP
MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WAVY SURFACE BOUNDARY... IS STILL
TARGETED BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION TUESDAY. THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY. THE MAIN BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING (MAINLY EAST). POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH AND BEHIND
THIS TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY SPELLED OUT QUITE WELL IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. AFTER THE WET PERIOD IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AND THE FROST THREAT IN THE MIDDLE... THE END OF THE WEEK STILL HAS
SOME CHANCE OF BEING WET AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WOULD BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...

AFTER THE WET PERIOD IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE FROST
THREAT IN THE MIDDLE... THE END OF THE WEEK STILL HAS SOME CHANCE OF
BEING WET AS WELL. IT APPEARS THAT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WOULD
BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
THIS COULD POSSIBLY EVEN LEAD TO SOME PATCHY LOW STATUS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT MENTION ANY
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING... AS ANY PATCHY STRATUS WOULD
BE RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AND BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE... IF ANY
DEVELOPS AT ALL. OTHERWISE... EXPECT SOME FLAT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 6 KFT RANGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE 10 TO 13 KT
RANGE... WITH GUSTS IN THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON TIME FRAME OF
UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK... LOW STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER. THEN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR FOR WED INTO FRI AS A COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/32
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...32
AVIATION...BSD/HARTFIELD