Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 141759 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 155 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1030 AM SUNDAY... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A 1028MB HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE THE 850-700MB LAYER REMAINS SATURATES. A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES EVEN SHOW UP ON RADAR. NAM/GFS ISENTROPIC FIELDS SHOW THE ASCENT...MAINLY CENTERED AROUND 300K...SHIFTING EAST AND WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIFT SPREADING IN THE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. THUS..EXPECT THE PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL FILL BACK IN...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FILLING BACK BY TONIGHT. ALL APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH JUST A HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. WILL REDUCE POPS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH OF HWY 64 AND ONLY A SMALL CHANCE NEAR THE SC BORDER. NOT VERY CONFIDENT IN HIGH TEMPS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST...BUT THE COOL NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. ANY PRECIP SHOULD COME TO ANY END SUNDAY EVENING...BUT WITH A CONTINUED OVERRUNNING ATOP A MOIST AIR MASS...CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. THERE MAY NOT BE AS MUCH STRAUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR)... BUT THE CLEARER SKIES COULD THEN RESULT IN SOME FOG FORMATION. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO MID 60S... COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY... MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE THE HIGHEST. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S. AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONALLY AN AREA OF 20-30 METER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 257 AM SUNDAY... IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOC SFC BOUNDARY EARLY TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE PARENT HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE STATES AND SE CANADA...THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK/SCHOOL WEEK. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A NEARLY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND JUST OFF THE SE COAST...BUT FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TO PRECLUDE THE RISK FOR PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA. OVERALL...TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE WARMEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY THANKS TO DRYING AND RESULTING SUNSHINE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT THEN TEMPS WILL FALL AND REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH AND RESULTING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...DURING THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE AND A NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTENING THIS EVENING SHOULD CREATE MVFR CEILINGS...MOSTLY 2000- 3000 FT...ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC. SOME 1000-2000 FT CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KFAY TO KRWI...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOME TERMINALS MAY ALSO SEE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER 14Z ON MONDAY. OUTLOOK...LOW CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...KRD/BLS SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...NP AVIATION...BLS

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