Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 100215 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 915 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong upper level trough and surface cold front will cross the region late this evening and into the overnight hours. High pressure will follow the front for Sunday into Monday. An arctic front will push through the area Tuesday night, bringing frigid conditions for mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 915 PM Saturday... ...Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 10 PM tonight through 10 AM Sunday morning for black ice... Back-edge of precipitation/snow exited the NE Coastal Plain Counties around 00z. Where the NW Piedmont saw as much as an inch of additional accumulation from this wrap around band, little to no additional accumulation was reported across Central Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. The SW-NE clearing line will be delayed until the passage of the northern stream trough(currently moving into Western NC) over the next few hours. As the skies clear out, radiational clearing will initially help to temperatures to start that downward temperature fall below freezing, followed by CAA as the cold front moves into the area late tonight. Lows will range from lower 20s across the Northern Piedmont, aided by the 3 to 5 inches of snow pact, to upper 20s across the SE. With temperatures this cold across the NW Piedmont, residual water, slush, and snow cover will re-freeze on area roadways. As a result, an advisory has been issued for Black Ice later tonight and Sunday morning with temperatures warming up slowly. Sunny and cold conditions are forecast Sunday with highs from 40 NW to 47 SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday... Mainly clear and cold conditions again Sunday night. Lows generally in the mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 115 PM Saturday... H5 trough over the eastern US Monday and Tuesday will keep temperatures below seasonal averages across the region, but will be tranquil compared to recent days. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the middle 40s north and west to mid 50s south and east and lows Monday night in the upper 20s to low 30s. Tuesday night will be a different story however as a clipper system moves through the Great Lakes and a longwave trough digs southward pushing a dry cold front through the area late Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday evening. This will plunge overnight lows into the upper teens to mid 20s across central NC. Strong cold air advection continues on Wednesday during the day as highs will struggle to get out of the low 30s across the northern tier of counties with closer to 40 degrees in the south. This comes in about 15 degrees below normal for mid-December. Only slight moderation for Wednesday night with lows generally in the lower 20s. For the end of the week, there will be a slight warmup during the daytime hours with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s north to south but overnight lows will still register below freezing in most locations. There is a small chance for precipitation on Friday as a clipper system moves across the mid-Atlantic with central NC flirting with the left exit region of a strong upper jet. This could produce some snow showers across the VA border counties, but for now confidence is low that the dynamics will line up just right. In addition, there isn`t much available moisture available so any snow would be very light. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 655 PM Saturday... 24-Hour TAF period: Some light precipitation, IFR/MVFR cigs and MVFR visbys remain across the area. The rain/snow is on its way out of the area, with KRWI the only terminal still in proximity to any precipitation. Conditions are expected to improve over the next several hours, generally from west to east, as the cold front makes its way into/through the area. KINT has been fluctuating between VFR and MVFR visbys, but cigs have remained between 500 and 1000 feet. Expect INT to return to VFR by 03Z, while KRWI may remain sub-vfr through 09Z. Winds will become westerly, increasing to 5-10 kts with some periodic gusts to 20 kts possible with the fropa. Otherwise, the remainder of the TAF period will be VFR with westerly winds around 5kts and clear skies. -KC Looking ahead: VFR conditions are expected to dominate from Sunday morning through mid week. -Badgett && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...CBL/BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...JF AVIATION...KC/BADGETT

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