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000
FXUS62 KRAH 260748
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
346 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi-stationary front across southwestern NC will return north as a
warm front tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front
will move very slowly southeast through the area Tuesday and into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM Monday

Today:
Southerly moist upglide/weak WAA atop a quasi-stationary frontal boundary
that extends across the western piedmont/foothills will support a small
chance of showers across the TRIAD this morning. The shower activity should
dissipate into sprinkles as it encounters the low-level ridge axis and
associated drier and stable air in place across the eastern piedmont and coastal plain.

The parent high anchoring this low-level ridge axis down the Mid-Atlantic
Coast will quickly move offshore today in advance of a cold front and northern
stream trough moving into the central and southern Appalachians. This will
allow the quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the western piedmont
to retreat northeastward throughout the day, paving the way for
warmer air just to our southwest to spread ne. Yesterday, we saw temperatures
in the warm sector across the southwestern piedmont soar into the lower 90s.
While low-level cloud cover should temper temperatures reaching these
levels today, expect to see a sharp SW to NE temperature gradient
with temperatures ranging from lower to mid 80s southwest to lower/mid 70s
northeast, highly sensitive/dependent to the exact timing of the retreating
warm front.

With weak to moderate instability developing as the warm air spreads north
and maximized across the foothills and western piedmont, the better
convective rain chances this afternoon/early evening will remain confined to
western portions of the forecast area.  Weak deep-layer shear and poor mid-level lapse
rates will limit severe potential.

Tonight:
Sfc cold front is forecast to slip east of the mountains, but remain
west of the forecast area through daybreak Tuesday. Upper support is almost
non-existent, so expect convection to be tied closed to the low-level
moisture convergence along the front and thus expect bulk of shower
activity to remain across the NC Foothills and Western Piedmont.
Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM Monday...

Will be issued shortly.
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&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 345 AM Monday...

Forecast confidence remains below average due to an atypically
complex synoptic pattern expected to evolve over North America
mid/late week. The 00Z GFS/ECMWF both indicate that an upper level
low amplifying over the Great Lakes early this week will dig
southward through the OH valley and cut-off in vicinity of the TN
Valley/Mid-Atlantic through mid/late week as an expansive upper
level ridge builds over the eastern 2/3 of North America, though
disagreement persists w/regard to the precise evolution of the cut-
off low. Broadly speaking, long range guidance supports above normal
chances for cloud cover/precipitation and slightly below normal
temperatures mid/late week, though further details (i.e. precip
amount/timing and perhaps severe wx potential) remain difficult to
ascertain at this time. -Vincent

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 AM Monday...

IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected overnight, lowest at KINT and KGSO
in closer proximity to a a quasi-stationary frontal boundary that
extends across the western/southern piedmont. Additionally, sely
moist upglide atop a quasi-stationary frontal boundary will support
a small chance of showers over the TRIAD overnight and into the
morning hours.

Any sub-VFR conditions in the east(KRWI and KFAY) should become VFR
by 14 to 15z, with KRDU expected to become VFR between 15 to 18z.
Ceilings will be much slower to improve at KGSO and KINT, with
MVFR or low end VFR lingering into the afternoon 18 to 21z time
frame. Moisture pooling ahead of a cold front moving into the
mountains will also support a small chance of showers and possibly
a thunderstorm late in the afternoon/early evening with rain chances
increasing overnight with sub-VFR ceilings as the front approaches
the NW Piedmont.

Looking beyond the 24 TAF Period: A cold front will move very slowly
se through the area Tuesday and into the day on Wednesday. Showers
and storms with associated periods of sub-VFR conditions are
expected to accompany the front. Conditions are expected to improve
to VFR from northwest to southeast Wednesday-Wednesday night as
drier air filters into the area.

During midweek, a rather unsettled pattern is expected to evolve as
a deep upper low sags southward from the Great Lakes into the
Central Appalachians.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...CBL