Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 252018 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 315 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY... ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF ANY WINTERY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. SUNNY MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING. FORECAST ASSESSMENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING NC FROM THE NW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE ONE ADVERTISED IN THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES... FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT... THEN EASTWARD NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY. THIS TRACK NORTH OF OUR REGION OFFERS NO CHANCE OF ANY ACCUMULATING WINTERY PRECIPIATION ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS TRACK ESSENTIALLY KEEPS OUR REGION IN THE MILD/WARM SIDE OF THE STORM... WITH THE COLD AIR FINALLY EXPECTED TO DIVE IN AS THE STORM DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT... A CLASSIC CASE OF COLD AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE FOR US. INCREASING CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED MID TO LATE EVENING. THEN CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 35- 40 RANGE. HOWEVER... LOWS SHOULD BE MET THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP. COOLEST NE AND WARMEST FAR WEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE IN THE NW. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY... AS THE VORTICITY ALOFT TRACKS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY... ENERGY WILL BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE OFF CAPE HATTERAS... THEN PULL NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL FALL OFFSHORE WITH THE STORM ITSELF AT OUR LATITUDE. HOWEVER... SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS OVER NE OVER THE WASHINGTON- PHILADELPHIA REGIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS (RAIN) MONDAY AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW. HOWEVER... THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NE ZONES AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN... COLD AND DRY AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE IS NOT A CONCERN FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF THERE ARE A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR FLURRIES AT THE END OF THE EVENT (MAINLY RDU NORTH AND EAST) - IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO STICK. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. QPF WILL BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH NORTHEAST. HIGHS GENERALLY 40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH. A CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND EAST... MAY BECOME A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT. BECOMING CLEAR SOUTH AND WEST. BREEZY. LOWS 25-30 WEST AND 33-35 NE.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY... TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS (SFC DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS)...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /HIGH PRESSURE/ BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (COOLEST NE). ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY VIA NW FLOW ALOFT WED NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOWS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT FORCING/ MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. FRI-SUN: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS PERIOD AS NW FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR NONE TO LOW...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE DRIER/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1153 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AGAIN LATER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A QUICK RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUE AND WED. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 22-25KT ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...BADGETT

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