Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190723 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 322 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A deep ridge of high pressure will extend across the region through Thursday. A surface cold front and upper level low pressure trough will approach from the west Thursday night, then cross the area Friday through Friday night. Cool high pressure will build in from the west over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM Wednesday... Not much has changed in the forecast and some of the same forecast problems remain. This morning, radiation fog will be possible as dewpoint depressions are low and skies remain clear with calm or light winds. To this point, not much in the way of fog development has occurred but just like previous mornings this should start to become more prevalent closer to sunrise. High pressure remains in place over central NC. Hottest day of the week is expected with temperatures in the mid 80s possibly near record territory for GSO and possibly even RDU where the records are 86 and 87 degrees respectively. FAY has a record of 90 degrees and that appears safe at this time. Skies should be mostly clear with light southwesterly winds. Low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning staying up in the low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM Wednesday... Not quite as hot on Thursday as the ridge begins to break down and we start to see cloud cover increase ahead of a frontal system that will be moving through the Ohio Valley. Still will see low to mid 80s though across the area with light southwesterly winds ahead of the front. Dewpoints will come up into the mid 60s ahead of the front as well as some moisture advection begins. Despite this, Thursday will be dry precipitation wise. This will be the last 80 degree day for a while as the front moves through on Friday and brings a new airmass for the weekend and into next week. Lows Thursday night in the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... Fri-Fri night: Models agree on the incoming cold front being aligned along the mountains early Fri, although they differ a bit in speed, with the NAM/ECMWF about 3-6 hours slower than the GFS. Will lean toward the slower solution based on the strength of the deep longwave trough driving frontal movement. Moisture along and ahead of this front remains rather shallow and fleeting, given the weakening but lingering deep ridging and weak flow ahead of the front (between it and the offshore-tracking potential tropical or subtropical low) providing no good opportunity for moisture transport into the region. Will maintain good chance pops focused on the NW forecast area including the Triad, where large scale ascent in the form of DPVA and upper divergence will be greatest, trending to small chances across the southern and SE CWA. QPF is expected to be quite low, less than a tenth of an inch in most places. Any showers are likely to be exiting the forecast area prior to sundown, with rapid clearing taking place thereafter. The front should swing through the western forecast area during the morning and midday hours, with thicknesses plunging there and limited insolation only allowing highs to reach the mid 60s, while in the east with at least a little sunshine and delayed front, temps should get up into the lower to mid 70s. Winds pick up considerably from the NW just behind the front, and momentum transport noted on forecast soundings suggests that gusts over 20 mph are likely in the afternoon. Lows Fri night in the 45-50 range with diminishing winds. Sat-Tue: Still looks fair, dry, and cool, but with moderating temps back to near normal by Mon, as the mid level trough axis kicks to our NE with rising heights aloft, and modifying high pressure building into the Mid-South/Gulf states and Southeast. We return to above normal thicknesses Sun night through Mon night as we get into a relative warm sector with the surface high sitting over the central Gulf Coast. Then, energy diving into a mean polar low over southern Quebec will help draw a dry backdoor front into the region, and both the ECMWF and GFS indicate cooler high pressure nosing in from the north on Tue. After cool highs Sat in the lower to mid 60s, warming to the upper 60s Sun and lower 70s Mon, expect highs to slip back into the upper 60s for Tue. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM Wednesday... 24 Hour TAF period: VFR conditions for now mostly everywhere across the area but some concerns about fog will begin to creep in as the morning progresses. Dewpoint depressions support possible fog, with eastern areas more likely to see some development. Otherwise another repeat of previous days with weak southwesterly flow and little to no cloud cover. Long term: VFR conditions expected until Friday when a front approaches from the west and could provide some precipitation and adverse aviation conditions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...Hartfield AVIATION...Ellis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.