Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 270703 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 303 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... TODAY: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 08-12Z THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. GIVEN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH...EXPECT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED/ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONT BY 12Z THIS MORNING AND PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE 21- 00Z TIME FRAME. GIVEN OVERCAST SKIES...COLD ADVECTION...AND PRECIPITATION /EVAP COOLING/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID 40S EAST OF HWY 1. IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... PRECIP WILL END BY MID AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR TEMPS TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 40S. TONIGHT: THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. STRONG DPVA /LAYER LIFTING/ AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT (H7 TEMPS FALLING 10C BETWEEN 21Z- 03Z IN THE TRIAD) WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST IN THE 02-08Z TIME FRAME. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE EXCLUSIVELY SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN DURING THE TIME-FRAME IN WHICH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING BETWEEN 06-12Z AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE /CLEARING/ COMMENCES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE MSLP GRADIENT TIGHTENS. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM 33-36F IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO NEAR 40F IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... SATURDAY: STRONG SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SAT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT TO NEAR 50F IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT SUN-SUN NIGHT: TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z THIS MORNING...IN THE WAKE OF A SFC COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INITIALLY AT 5-10 KT AT 06Z THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NW AT 10 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THEN N/NE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BETWEEN 09-15Z AS THE MSLP GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...PARTICULARLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS (RDU/FAY/RWI) WHERE IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL 21-00Z. AT WESTERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO)...SOME IMPROVEMENT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 18-21Z. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT (02-08Z) AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AS SKIES RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST-EAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST/NW. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOC/W AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. -VINCENT
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...VINCENT

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