Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 192339 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 739 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OFF THE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY... THE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST WV SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH THAT HAD WORKED INTO THE SE PART OF NC EARLIER WAS FILLING IN WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE MID/UPPER LOW. DEEP LAYERED ENE FLOW WAS CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS ALL OF NC. THIS MOISTURE WAS BEING LIFTED UP AND OVER THE COASTAL BOUNDARY CREATING LARGE AREAS OF RAIN OVER NC. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE BEST RAINFALL HAD SHIFTED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... FOOTHILLS AND BLUE RIDGE AIDED BY THE SURFACE TO H85 EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. EVEN THOUGHT THE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 0.10 PER HOUR WITH THIS LARGE RAIN AREA... IT HAS BEEN NEARLY CONTINUOUS. THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS RAIN AREA FOCUSED OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON MAY SLOW DEVELOP EASTWARD IN TIME AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THE MID/UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BUT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WHILE NOT A FLOODING THREAT... PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH SPOTTY MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT EXTENDING FROM WINSTON-SALEM TO ROXBORO SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST POP AND QPF AS DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE NE (VA). DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF NC. THIS REGION SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE... ANOTHER 0.25 TO LOCALLY 0.50 MAY STILL FALL DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. EVENTUALLY... THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WIN OUT LATER SUNDAY... AS THE MID/UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. SENSIBLE WEATHER TONIGHT... OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN EXCEPT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FAR NORTH. BREEZY AND COOL. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIAD. ANY QPF WILL BE LIGHT... BUT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STIFF NE BREEZE... IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY NW... AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT... A MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER... IF THE CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR... AS SOME MODELS HINT... THE CLOUDINESS MAY BE SLOWER TO CLEAR. MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WEST OF I-95 SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 40S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY... MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE CAROLINAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WHILE RIDGE ALSO BUILDS IN ALOFT. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES. TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AMPLIFIES THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES ENE AND DEEPENS ON TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN SOME WARM MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE DURATION IS RELATIVELY SHORT...LIMITING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS. AS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS...THE GFS APPEARS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...NOT HELPING TO IMPROVE CONFIDENCE. THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE PROJECTED MARGINAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFT/EVE...AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WELL TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE THREAT. REGARDLESS...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUESDAY EVE/NIGHT...WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE MID LEVEL BEHIND IT HELPING CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION. THOUGH IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT...FOR NOW EXPECT LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 215 PM SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...YIELDING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS INCREASING FROM MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LOW 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AT THE END OF THE WEEK WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND YIELD THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM THE MODELS DIFFER...WITH THE GFS BEING THE WETTER OF THE TWO...THUS WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND AMOUNTS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY... PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DESPITE THE EXPECTED PRECIP...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST (KFAY) WHERE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHER TAF SITES MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIP...BUT THAT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME OUT. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BRISK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PERIODIC GUSTS US TO 20-25 MPH... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY... BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...KRD

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