Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260607 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge will extend across the region through Saturday. A weak backdoor front will slip into the area on Saturday and then wash out by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 1050 PM Thursday... A quiet overnight is expected across central NC with fair weather and near normal low temperatures. Latest surface analysis shows high pressure extending west into the Southeast from off the Mid Atlantic coast. A weak surface trough extends from near Washington DC southwest to the western Piedmont of NC into upstate SC. Isolated convection from earlier this afternoon has all dissipated and with ridging aloft expect mainly clear skies overnight. Some patchy fog is possible toward daybreak in the Coastal Plain, otherwise mainly clear skies are expected. Lows should range between 68 and 73 degrees. -blae && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Thursday... Mid/upper level anti-cyclone currently positioned over the Deep South relocates over our region on Friday. Subsidence associated with this feature will limit cloud production, as well as inhibit convective initiation. The subsidence warming will lead to afternoon temps several degrees above normal for this time of year. High temps in the low-mid 90s will be common. While sfc dewpoints will creep back up to around 70, heat index values do not get too ridiculous, averaging within a degree or two of 100 degrees. The exception may be the sandhills. If temps reach the upper 90s, heat index values will approach 105 degrees. While the low level air mass will be more than adequately unstable to support isolated/scattered convection, mid level subsidence inversion should inhibit development. It should feel noticeably more muggy Friday night with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Overnight temps in the low-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 235 PM Thursday... Saturday through Sunday night: The weekend is setting up to be mostly dry as an upper level ridge sits directly on top of central NC. At the surface a high pressure system will start Saturday over the Great Lakes before progressing to the northeast through New England and the Canadian Maritimes. Models try to generate a few showers, particularly on Saturday afternoon across the western portion of the CWA. Will put slight chance in the forecast but confidence on this actually occurring is fairly low given the strong subsidence overhead. Saturday will be hot with maximum temperatures in the mid 90s but dewpoints should stay in the low 70s. This will result in heat indices creeping into the 100-105 degree range but probably wont be enough for a heat advisory. Temperatures will drop back to near 90 degrees on Sunday afternoon. Monday through Thursday: Model solutions begin diverging early next week so details will be hard to pin down at this point but we do know that the upper level ridge should relax and upper flow will become more zonal north of the area. To the south, the pattern will largely be dictated by where the current tropical invest winds up. Forecast model track spread is very large at this point as is the intensity guidance. Have increased chances for precipitation into the chance range for the end of the forecast period to account for any possible effects of the tropical system. Once the ridge breaks down the storm will be allowed to recurve the question is how far west will it be by that time and how quickly will it recurve. If the storm recurves before reaching the Florida Peninsula we could see dry weather here in NC as the storm goes out to sea. However if the storm recurves in the Gulf further west, then we could see rainfall ahead of the storm as early as Thursday morning. Highs near 90 each day with lows in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM Friday... Strong high pressure over the region will lead to light/variable predominately VFR conditions today an tonight, with just some scattered clouds above 4k ft drifting east across the Piedmont this morning. A chance for some isolated pockets of MVFR vsbys also continue this morning, particularly after 09z at FAY AND RWI. Outlook: This area of high pressure is expected to maintain its influence over our region through early next week. A weak backdoor cold front early Saturday will be followed by a northeast wind that could lead to some sub-VFR ceilings across the coastal plain on Sunday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...BS

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