Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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003 FXUS62 KRAH 260001 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 801 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drop south across North Carolina today and then stall across South Carolina on Wednesday. This front will lift back north on Thursday before a strong cold front approaches the region from the northwest on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Latest surface analysis shows the cold front making good southward progress and stretching from near KPGV southwest to KGSB to near KGSP. Surface dew points have already fallen into the lower to mid 60s across the border counties with a dew point of 64 noted at Roxboro and Henderson, just to the east higher dew points in the lower 70s persist at KIXA and KASJ. Aloft, the upper-level trough axis has shifted toward the coast. Precipitable water values continue to fall and now range from 1.1" along the NC/VA border to around 1.6" across the south and southeast. A weak short wave will drop into the region from the northwest late tonight while a southwest-northeast elongated upper level jet axis extends across the Southeast. With decreased moisture, a weakly unstable air mass and limited forcing, precipitation chances will be limited this evening and tonight. The only organized area of convection near our CWA will likely be scattered storms across the coastal region near the surface front and another area of isolated convection across the higher elevation of the NC mountains. Given the higher dew points in the lower 70s lingering across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills and slightly better mid- level lapse rates, could see a shower pop up in the east or a shower in the higher elevations move into the western Piedmont. Will include slight chance pops tonight. Expect periods of cirrus tonight with the enhanced upper level jet. A layer lower stratus may develop late tonight in an arc from the Coastal Plain west and northwest across the Sandhills and into the Yadkin Valley. It will be cooler tonight with a some lows reaching the upper 60s across the northern Piedmont, especially near the VA border with most locations ranging from 67 to 74 degrees. The EC ensemble guidance for Henderson gives an operational and a mean low both of 67 with the warmest ensemble member giving a low of 69 and the coldest 63! -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 PM Tuesday... The cold front should be positioned south of central NC on Wednesday morning allowing high pressure to extend into the region from the north. The front will begin lifting north on later Wednesday as the surface flow veers to southeasterly and southerly. This will allow an increase in moisture roughly in the 925 to 850 hPa layer and promote an increase in cloud cover and perhaps a shower or storm, generally in an arc from the Coastal Plain west and northwest across the Sandhills and into the Yadkin early in the day that will expand northward during the afternoon and evening. Precipitation chances will be limited to the slight chance range across most of the area, so all in all it will be a much cooler and more tolerable day. Highs will range in the upper 80s to near 90 with lows in the 68 to 74 range. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 330 PM Tuesday... Mid level ridging amplifying over the central CONUS will induce corresponding deepening of east coast troffing and associated northwest flow. Cooler air will be edging south out of the upper Midwest and slowly spreading east and southeast, with the associated cold front reaching the NC/VA border Thursday night. Thursday will be dry with potential for some showers in the western Piedmont late in the day. Highs will reach near 90 over the area with PoPs ramping up to 30-40% by Friday morning as the front creeps in, with at least 50% chances on tap for Friday into Friday night. Strongest convection is expected late Friday and through the overnight as convergence along the h85 trof will provide the best lift, with better shear profiles across the northern tier nearer the parent surface low and triple point. Highs Friday will be a shade cooler...mid 80s northwest to lower 90s east...mainly abetted by heavier cloud coverage and rain, as the cooler air doesn`t make its way into the area until Friday night. Some showers may linger into Saturday morning in the east, otherwise skies will be clearing with a noticeably cooler and drier airmass in place through the weekend. Highs Saturday through Monday will top out mostly in the mid 80s...3-5 degrees below normal, with morning lows in the mid to upper 60s. The front, meanwhile, will be stalled along the coast, with potential for development of a surface low along the front that could pull moisture back into at least the eastern sections of the state by midweek.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 800 PM Monday... 24-Hour TAF period: VFR conditions are expected to continue this evening as a surface cold front settles to the south and west of the region and stalls. We may see some low stratus (low end MVFR) develop early Wednesday morning as at KFAY and KGSO/KINT (mostly likely at KGSO/KINT). Any sub-VFR conditions are expected to lift by late morning/early afternoon at the latest. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to continue with dry conditions. Outlook: The cold front to the south will lift north as a warm front on Thursday before a stronger cold front moves through the area on Friday and then stalls to our south over the weekend. Mainly VFR conditions expected through much of the period with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms and a chance of morning fog and stratus. The greatest chance of adverse aviation conditions in showers and storms will be Thursday night through Friday night ahead of the approaching cold front. -Blaes
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&& .EQUIPMENT...
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Technicians have completed the bulk of the first phase of the Service Life Extension Project (SLEP) upgrade and the data quality is sufficient for the radar to return to service. Additional radar adjustments resulting in brief outages are still possible during the next few days. The temperature & dew point sensor at site KFAY, located at the Fayetteville Regional Airport, is malfunctioning. NWS technicians have turned the sensor off and ordered parts to repair it. At this time, we expect the sensor to be returned to service early next week.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...BSD/BLAES EQUIPMENT...BSD/BLAES

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