Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280641 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 241 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY... MORNING: STRONG DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BETWEEN 06-10Z THIS MORNING... PRIMARILY EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. DESPITE STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERMAL PROFILES WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED WITH LITTLE EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL (06Z SFC OBS INDICATE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY 0-3F IN THE COASTAL PLAIN). AND THE FREEZING LEVEL IS PROGGED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN 1-2 KFT AGL BY 12Z (CURRENTLY 3 KFT PER 06Z SPC MESOANALYSIS)...A FORMIDABLE MELTING LAYER TO OVERCOME...PARTICULARLY IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT EVAP COOLING AND/OR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND... HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION EXITING BEFORE THERMAL PROFILES BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A MIXED PTYPE. AFTERNOON: DESPITE FULL SUN /LATE MARCH INSOLATION/...AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS DEPOSITED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH/NW TO LOWER 50S S/SE. -VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY... ...FREEZE WATCH UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING... TONIGHT: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...SETTLING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NC BY SUNRISE SUN MORNING. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY 06Z SUN AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH/NW PIEDMONT AND MID/UPPER 20S ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 64...COLDEST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND WARMEST IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN. SUNDAY: THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE ATTENDANT LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/SE COAST BY 00Z MON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW /WARM ADVECTION/ WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A NEUTRAL ADVECTION PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACCOUNTING FOR AIRMASS MODIFICATION VIA LATE MARCH INSOLATION...AND MARGINAL WARM ADVECTION IN THE WEST...EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 50S SW PIEDMONT. -VINCENT
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY... TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MIGRATE OVER THE AREA...BECOMING SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION...WITH GENERALLY MID 50S EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS (ALONG WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION) WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE. ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED...WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THEN LOW END CHANCE POP. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP... TEMPS WILL WARM EVEN MORE ON MONDAY (OVER SUNDAY) GIVEN THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S. EVEN MORE MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR INTO MID WEEK GIVEN MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S (MAYBE APPROACHING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH)...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 70S EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS IS NOT HIGH. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY...WITH PRECIP LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN SHOWERS AT THE RWI TERMINAL BETWEEN 06-10Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A NORTHWEST BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WEAKENING TO ~5 KT BY SUNSET AND BECOMING CALM BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST/NW. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE CONDITIONS (MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN) WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -VINCENT
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&& .CLIMATE...
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RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 29TH ARE LISTED BELOW. RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE GSO 20-1966 RDU 20-1966 FAY 24-1982
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ028-042- 043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...VINCENT CLIMATE...RAH

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