Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 200612 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 112 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level trough will pivot northeast across western North Carolina into this morning. This will be followed by a brief quiet period Friday afternoon and night. A strong storm system is expected to affect the region over the weekend into Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... As of 935 PM Thursday... Evening upper air analysis depicts a narrow ridge of high pressure over the state. Immediately on the back side of the high, clouds were thickening/lowering with patches of light rain developing over the southern mountains. The ridge is expected to drift offshore later tonight, leading to increasing cloud cover over our region, with a good chance for light rain by daybreak across the western Piedmont. At this time, the bulk of the rain should remain west of the Triangle, and west of Fayetteville through 7 AM. Rain chances in the Triangle and Fayetteville quickly reach their peak by mid-late morning. Mid evening temperatures varied from near 40 across the far northeast to the upper 40s/around 50 over the far south and west. As clouds thicken overnight, expect temperatures to hold steady or rise a degree or two prior to the arrival of the precip. Min temps will vary from the upper 30s/around 40 northeast to the mid 40s west. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 255 PM Thursday... Rain is expected over the region Friday morning... tapering off from the west during the afternoon. QPF will be highest in the NW, lowest SE, ranging from around 0.25 NW to less than 0.10 SE. Temperatures will remain rather cool or held down by the rain and clouds. Light flow even behind the departing system will generally yield cloudy skies with some breaks during Friday afternoon. Expect highs in the 50s north, lower to mid 60s south. Friday night... Patchy fog and variably cloudy skies expected as we will be between systems. The main issue is the potential for dense fog if we get some partial clearing. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/... As of 230 PM Thursday... A wet, but mild spell is on tap for the weekend into early next week as a strong cutoff low pressure area digs into the Midwest and across the Gulf states before lifting up the Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Timing confidence is fairly high, while finer details of potentially how much rain where are still somewhat murky. There appear to be at least 3 distinct periods of potential showers as this slow-moving system taps into the Gulf and feeds abundant moisture north up the Atlantic coast. An initial short wave and associated surface warm front will be lifting northeast, steered by an upper ridge over the eastern seaboard on Saturday, with showers spreading north into the area by afternoon and lingering through Saturday night. Shower coverage may be a bit diminished on Sunday, but mid level instability and upper dynamics (particularly upper divergence in the exit region of a jet streak rounding the base of the upper low) should support isolated thunder in the afternoon through Sunday night. Finally, we should see some lighter, wrap around showers linger through Monday into Monday night as the upper low lifts out to the northeast. All told, widespread rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5 inches are expected over the 3 day period. Rain should be spread out enough over the period to preclude any flooding on larger streams and rivers, but some localized flooding in urban areas is possible given the potential for stronger convection on Sunday and Monday. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 60s, cooling to mid 50s to lower 60s Monday in modest northerly cool air advection on the backside of the low level circulation. Cold air will remain bottled up over the northern Conus, so temperatures will remain mild with as mid level ridging migrates across the area Tuesday through early Thursday. Abundant sun will help induce a bit of a warmup, with highs around 60 Tuesday warming to the mid 60s on Wednesday. A cold front will be approaching on Thursday, which looks to be mostly dry and we will still be shielded from arctic sir in the wake of the front, so highs should still reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 110 AM Friday... 24 Hour TAF period: VFR conditions across the area this morning should remain so for the next few hours before ceilings start to come down at the Triad sites in advance of a system that is expected to track through the area later today. Expect MVFR after 9Z with IFR following shortly after, closer to 12Z. Eastern sites will come down a few hours later from west to east. Short term models show precipitation moving into the Triad around 12z and losing intensity as it crosses the northern tier. This will leave some question as to whether or not KFAY will see any rain or not. Other sites to the east still should see some light rain late morning through early afternoon before the system quickly moves out to the northeast. Conditions should begin to improve thereafter. Long term: Expect fog early Saturday morning and then attention turns to a stronger system expected to bring the possibility of thunderstorms to the area on Saturday. Conditions should return to VFR on Sunday.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...Ellis

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