Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 020536 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1235 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the Eastern U.S. from the west through the upcoming weekend. An approaching upper level disturbance and moist flow from the Atlantic and Gulf will bring increasing rain chances beginning Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 950 PM Thursday... Drier air will continue to filter into the area as high pressure centered over the Mid-South continues to build east into the area. Light nwly winds and clear skies will result in good radiational cooling. Lows ranging from lower 30s in the typically cooler spots to mid 30s se. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 205 PM Thursday... Surface high pressure will build into and over the region through Saturday with westerly flow aloft. As a result, expect this period should be mainly dry, with rather seasonable temperatures (highs in the mid 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s). There is a slight chance that rain could move into the far west Saturday night, however it is more likely they will hold off until sometime on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 PM Thursday... The extended forecast will be characterized by a series of shortwaves progressing through the central U.S. Though the model solutions are in much better agreement for Sunday through Tuesday, significant model differences arise thereafter. As a result, forecast confidence beyond Tuesday is quite low. Sunday through Tuesday: An upper level cut-off low over NW Mexico will usher a good amount of moisture into the Gulf Coast states and southeast U.S. Sunday while a weak ridge lingers over the east coast. Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave over the Midwest will progress eastward, though the impact it will have on the ridge is a bit uncertain and will have an impact on the northeastward extent of the Pacific moisture. The better chance for rain to move into the region will come Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned low starts to move northeast through the Midwest and interacts with another shortwave traversing a strengthening trough over the Rockies. The advection of additional moist air being picked up off the Gulf in the southwesterly flow will result in increasing chances for rain over the Carolinas. Highs Sunday will still be somewhat cool, upper 40s to low 50s before warming up into the mid to upper 50s Monday and Tuesday. Lows will generally be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Wednesday and Thursday: The low should be absorbed into the northern stream flow by late Tuesday/Tuesday night and the rain should exit to the east Tuesday night. Though the upper level patterns appear similar on Wednesday and Thursday, the difference in the strength and location of the next low/trough is significant. As a result, forecast uncertainty is high with respect to both weather and temperatures. Per the GFS...Central NC could get a quick shot of rain followed by strong cold advection and the chance to see lows in the low to mid 20s Thursday night. Conversely...the ECMWF is stronger and slower with the system and given the latest solution, the rain would be delayed until late Thursday/Thursday night. For now, will keep this period dry with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and lows decreasing from 40s Wednesday night to 20s and 30s Thursday Night. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Tuesday/... As of 1235 AM Friday... High confidence in VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. High pressure will continue to build into the region, with deep dry air as mid level ridging shifts over the Southeast states. Only a few thin high clouds are expected across the area today through tonight, and low humidities will result in VFR vsbys. Surface winds will be light from the NW through daybreak, then from the W or WNW at 8-12 kts through sundown, and light from the NW again tonight. Looking beyond 06z Sat: High clouds will steadily increase and thicken with lowering bases to around 10 000 ft AGL through Sat night, and to around 5 000 ft AGL Sunday with light rain spreading in late from the SW as an upper level disturbance approaches from the SW and a surface frontal zone moves in from the south. Confidence is high that conditions will deteriorate further to IFR Sunday night and remain poor at IFR or LIFR Monday into Tuesday with periods of rain and potential low level wind shear. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...KCP LONG TERM...KCP AVIATION...Hartfield

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