Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280642 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM MONDAY... FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS DRIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. THIS HAS ALLOWED SFC WINDS TO BECOME MORE SWLY. AS AIR MASS STABILIZES...EXPECT SFC WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OR CALM THOUGH COULD SEE A STEADY 4-5 MPH WIND IN THE FAR WEST OVERNIGHT. THE RESIDUAL DRY AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO COOL APPRECIABLY EARLY THIS EVENING AFTER HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH MID 40S LIKELY AT THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 220 PM MONDAY... SWLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TUE AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DEEPEN TUE...IN A TIGHTENING MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BE FORECAST TO LIE INVOF THE APPALACHIAN WEST SLOPES BY 12Z WED. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20KTS WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON(HIGHEST ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE)AND WILL NOT ONLY MAKE TUESDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK BUT WILL ALSO VERGE UPON RECORD MAX TERRITORY(FOR LIST OF RECORDS SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH LATE TUE NIGHT-EARLY WED...WITH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS MORE STRONGLY SUPPORTED ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES IN THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 310 PM MONDAY... ...FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND... A SHEARING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NWP GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY REACH THE COAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS VERY LIMITED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BUT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A RATHER NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS WILL TRAIL THE BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW THAT IS LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...HAVE OPTED TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. WE`VE ALSO OPTED TO DEPICT THE NARROW AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS VS A BROADER AND LONGER PERIOD OF POSSIBLE RAIN. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MORE RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER. TEMP FORECAST ON WED WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH A REASONABLE BUST POTENTIAL GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE SLOWER TIMING AND LAGGING RAIN...HAVE OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WEDNESDAYS HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 70S IN THE TRIAD TO LOWER 80S SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION BEGINS FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 1330-1350M RANGE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION EAST ON THURSDAY. SLOW CLEARING WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST. CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THE EASTERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SOME MID CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON HALLOWEEN NIGHT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 1290-1310M RANGE DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WITH A SIMILAR TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .CLIMATE... RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28TH: MAX HI-MIN RDU 86/1919 69/1984 GSO 86/1919 64/1919 FAY 87/1919 65/2010 && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY... OBSERVATIONAL AND FORECAST DATA SUGGEST AN AREA OF STRATUS BETWEEN 100-500 FT...AS WELL AS POCKETS OF FOG - INCLUDING SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS - WILL DEVELOP NORTH FROM EAST-CENTRAL SC THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS AND FOG ARE MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KFAY/KRDU/KRWI...AND IF IT INDEED OCCURS...IT WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO LIFT/DISPERSE (NOT UNTIL BETWEEN 15-17Z) OWING TO A STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSION FROM THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE SUNSET MON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 6-12 KT RANGE...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT WESTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK: STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED...PRIMARILY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THEN THE COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT EASTERN TERMINALS - AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC WED...INTO WED EVENING AT EASTERN SITES.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...CBL/MWS LONG TERM...BLAES CLIMATE...CBL AVIATION...MWS

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