-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 261841
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
141 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...

...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...
...A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU
OVERNIGHT... NO WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD... WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR OUR REGION... THIS WILL
OCCUR TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. H5 HEIGHT FALLS
WERE ON THE ORDER OF 120+ METERS FROM GA THROUGH THE CAROLINA`S.
THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF QUICK MOVING RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON... AND AS IT DOES SO... THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT WILL
SHIFT TO OUR NE ZONES. EXPLOSIVE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN
OFFSHORE OF NC THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GULF STREAM. THIS WAS OCCURRING AS THE ENERGY/LIFT FROM THE
NW TRANSFERS TO THE GULF STREAM AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WE WILL SHIFT THE LIKELY POP OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND REPLACE WITH 20-30 POP FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH RANGING INTO THE 50S SOUTH.

UPDATE TO TONIGHT... THERE IS STILL A FLEETING CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE NE CORRIDOR OF NC THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ATTRIBUTED TO THE COLD DRY AIR SURGING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM "CHASING THE MOISTURE". NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT... LOWS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 32 REGARDLESS. -BADGETT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 300 AM TODAY... INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO AND
RESULT IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE OCEAN SO THE WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE THE CWA LATER TODAY WILL NOT
BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT IT DOES BRING WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS TEH SOUTH.
TIMING IS TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE DIFFERENT PERIODS
OF RAIN AS SMALLER WAVE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINING
POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALSO GET BETTER
AFTER 18Z AND MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z WITH VERY
SKINNY...MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 00Z THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE COAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TIGHTEN UP CAUSING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE BOTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

BY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MATURE NOR`EASTER AND HAVE GROWN CONSIDERABLY IN
SIZE. CENTRAL NC WILL SET UP JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE MINUTE...IF
SATURATION UP THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE HOLDS ON LONG
ENOUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS VERY BRIEF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE STORM EVENTUALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO PUT
CENTRAL NC IN THE COLD AND DRY SECTOR. THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. COUPLE THAT WITH A BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THAN IT WILL THE 40S. DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW
AND WARMEST SE.

FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT.

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSFER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM WILL LIFT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE WELL NE OF OUR REGION. YET...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VSBYS
SHOULD NOT BE LIMITED TO UNDER VFR IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS. NW WINDS 10-
15KT EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE NE
INCLUDING KRDU AND KRWI... WITH A POSSIBLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRY.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AS THE STORM TO OUR NE PULLS
AWAY.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE EXPECTED AGAIN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT