Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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175 FXUS62 KRAH 240646 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 246 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push south through the region early this morning. High pressure over the Great Lakes will build south and east through the rest of the week, bringing cooler and drier weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 831 PM Wednesday... Update to remove the isolated severe threat. Also, lower POP to isolated chances as the main line of convection was exiting our SE Coastal Plain at the moment. Isolated showers/thunderstorms may still occur as the cold front dips south across the region overnight. However, the main storms are obviously tied to the pre-frontal convective band exiting the SE zones, greatly stabilizing the areas to the north and west over most of our area. Winds overnight will become northerly then northeasterly. Extensive cloudiness is expected, especially in the eastern zones where the low level moisture will linger and be slow to scour out (dew points in the 70s). Mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the mid 60s north, 70- 75 SE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... For Thursday expect the frontal zone to hang up either in far southeastern areas of the state or just offshore. With the exception of a lingering afternoon shower in the far southeastern portion of the forecast area, much of the CWA should remain dry and significantly cooler than the past week or so. Expect high temperatures only in the low to mid 80s with north winds at 5-10 kts. Skies will continue to clear as the day progresses with the Triad seeing the most sun. Lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM Thursday... Surface high pressure will build south behind the cold front, advecting some cooler and drier air into the area. Best chances and longest duration of the CAA associated with the CAD-type setup will be mainly over northwest portions of the area Saturday through Wednesday, although much of the area will be under the surface ridge and northeasterly flow Saturday and Sunday. A low/potential tropical cyclone develops off the FL coast on Saturday and slowly drifts northeast along the SE U.S. coast through the remainder of the extended period. Expect increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances from late this weekend through the middle of the week. Also, as the low approaches the NC coast, expect increasing northeasterly winds between the ridge and the coastal system. This could enhance the CAA over inland areas, while coastal areas may realize more of an easterly component and tropical airmass. There are still some differences between the models with regard to this system, especially into next week, thus confidence is not terribly high but there will be a low off the NC coast by mid-week. Best chances for rain through the period will be in the far southeast and much of Central NC could remain dry and somewhat cool through mid-week. As the coastal system moves away from the region on Thursday, the remnants of Harvey are expected to get absorbed into a frontal system moving eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. This will likely bring with it an increasing chance for showers and storms by late next week. Temperatures should feel much better for much of the extended period, with highs gradually decreasing from upper 70s to mid 80s on Saturday, into the mid 70s NW to low 80s SE by Tuesday. Lows will generally be in the upper 50s to mid 60s from NW to SE through Tuesday night. Expect rebounding temperatures Wednesday and Thursday as the coastal low moves away from the area and the next frontal system/remnants of Harvey approach. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 AM Thursday... A slow moving sfc cold front will drift across central NC this morning. In vicinity of this boundary, a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm will occur. Otherwise, abundant low level moisture will result in areas of IFR/LIFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibility due to fog through 14Z, primarily from RDU and points south and east including RWI and FAY. Northerly flow behind the exiting sfc front this afternoon and this evening will usher a drier more stable air mass into the region. The arrival of this air mass will improve ceilings and limit convective development. This will commence an extended period of VFR conditions that should last through the weekend. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...WSS

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