Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 290644 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 243 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Tropical Storm Bonnie will approach the South Carolina coast this morning, and then track slowly northeastward along the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 841 PM Saturday... The latest information from the NHC indicated that TS Bonnie had stalled in the last few hours. It is expected to resume the NW movement but less than 10kt this evening as it tracks toward the southern SC coast. There continued to be an impressive plume of deep moisture advecting NW to the east of the center of circulation of Bonnie. At the surface, a surface trough or wind shift line had advanced westward into the Piedmont from the Coastal Plain at mid- evening. Dew points jump into the mid to upper 60s from the upper 50s as the trough moves passes and winds become more easterly off the Atlantic. An initial rain band was rotating NW toward the SE NC coastal region this evening. It appears that it will be late evening before some of this band moves into our southern Coastal Plain. We will ramp up POP in the SE to account for this activity and additional rain later on. Conversely, we will cut POP back for the NW-N zones to a slight chance through 06Z, then as the rain/showers develop and spread NW-W increase POP between 06Z-12Z throughout the region. It appears a surface trough will set up over the region later tonight into Sunday. It should be along this convergence axis that rain/showers become widespread later tonight and Sunday. With dew points rising and skies becoming cloudy, expect lows 65-70 SE and lower to mid 60s NW. && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
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As of 245 AM Sunday... Tropical Storm Bonnie and its remnants will be the main weather story during the short term forecast period. With very weak flow aloft there will not be much to steer the storm away from the coastline but it is expected to gradually meander northeastward along the coast and eventually off the Tidewater VA area by Thursday. The question will be just how far inland the precipitation from the storm moves. At this time models don`t have a ton of precipitation over the forecast area with best chances along the I- 95 corridor with only slight chances across the west. Expect diurnal heating to drive thunderstorm chances with the greatest chance each afternoon. Only expecting plus or minus a half of an inch of rainfall...again with heaviest amounts in the east. Hot and humid with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /Thursday Through Saturday/...
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As of 245 AM Sunday... Focus will shift away from Bonnie on Thursday and will instead concentrate on a frontal system stemming from a low pressure system over the Great Lakes. With the moist tropical airmass still in place...diurnal showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon will be probable as the front approaches. The front will lose forward progress on Friday and stall out over the east coast as an upper low and trough opens up an extended moisture plume from the Gulf of Mexico that will keep conditions wet for several days. Expect best chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. High temperatures in the mid 80s with lows continuing to be in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Thursday/... As of 135 AM Sunday... Details are tough to pin down but the most likely scenario consists of current VFR conditions at all sites slow deteriorating to MVFR later this morning, and wavering between MVFR and VFR through much of today. As low level moisture increases further, pockets of MVFR vsbys in fog are expected areawide between 07z and 12z this morning. The center of Tropical Storm Bonnie, currently located off the SE coast ESE of SAV, is expected to push slowly to the NW before stalling out near the central SC coast through much of today. A surge of Atlantic moisture to the NE of Bonnie is expected to bring a band of showers toward the NNW through central NC from mid morning through early afternoon, followed by patchier and more widely scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two during the mid to late afternoon, with the best chance of storms at RDU/FAY/RWI. Within this first band of steady showers, cigs and vsbys should drop to MVFR with cigs potentially IFR at times. Once this main band shifts northward by early afternoon, conditions should vary between MVFR and VFR through early evening. MVFR to IFR fog and stratus are apt to redevelop after sunset, especially at INT/GSO/RDU, with scattered showers persisting areawide. Looking beyond 06z Mon: Unsettled weather will persist with periods of sub-VFR conditions expected through Mon, including a good chance of showers and storms Mon afternoon. IFR fog/stratus likely to redevelop for Mon night / Tue morning. Numerous sub-VFR showers and storms expected Tue afternoon at RDU/RWI/FAY, with less coverage and mostly VFR conditions at INT/GSO. Chances for sub-VFR showers diminish by Wed/Thu as the TS Bonnie circulation and associated upper level disturbance finally shifts NE away from the forecast area. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...blaes AVIATION...Hartfield

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