-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 100533
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
133 AM EDT SUN MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND BENEATH DRY WNW
FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OVER THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM SUNDAY...

ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAKING EAST ACROSS THE SE U.S...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AS A WEST-NW FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ADVECTS A DRY
AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. THE DRY AIR MASS AND NEAR CALM SURFACE
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 BY EARLY
MORNING. -WSS

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH/GULF OF MEXICO WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST US.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY ON MONDAY. WITH CONTINUED WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
(COURTESY OF LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE AREA)...TEMPS SHOULD BE EVEN
WARMER ON MONDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. MILDER
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
-MWS/KRD

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY...LEE TROFFING AND ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
OUR WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GULF STRENGTHENS TO 40 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THUS...POPS WILL
BE INCREASING IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL NOT PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CONCURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS FORTUNATE...AS WE DO NOT NEED ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 2 INCH RAINFALL FOR A FEW DAYS. SO...WHILE POPS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 1.25 INCHES TO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO LESS THAN A
HALF INCH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...20 TO
PERHAPS 25 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS TEMPERED A BIT BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUDINESS TO THE UPPER 60S. POST-FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE EAST DURING THE EVENING WITH
STRONG CAA AND CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

A SHORT LIVED COOL SPELL FOLLOWS FROPA ON THURSDAY AS A DAMPENING
UPPER TROF MIGRATES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. MILD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHERN MIDWEST WILL BE BUILDING IN
FOR LATE WEEK...QUICKLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WILL PEAK IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE...AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE OUR COOLEST AS THE DRY COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD
AND WE RADIATE DOWN INTO THE MID 20S.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEAR ZONAL AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
INITIATE A WARMUP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING AS THE FLOW PHASES...BUT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME...HENCE THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY AND WARMER WITH UNPHASED SPLIT FLOW PRODUCING VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID-UPPER CLOUDINESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS
(KNOTS). ONLY SOME PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS OCCURS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS PRECIP INTO THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS/KRD
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...KRD