Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 050700 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 259 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GYRATE AROUND NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TONIGHT...THEN LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1035 PM FRIDAY... RELATIVELY QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA DEPICT AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NC/VA COAST NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS WERE ANALYZED WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS - ONE OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE OTHER OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...THE LEAD OF WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT FOCUSED OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN AND NE PIEDMONT THROUGH SAT. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING...HOWEVER. AT THE SURFACE...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER INSTABILITY/COLD POOL ALOFT-DRIVEN CONVECTION HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...IN AN ARC FROM NEAR KMYR-KCAE-KAND-KAVL- KTNB. IN THE WAKE OF THAT ACTIVITY AND STABILIZING OUTFLOW...ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING CINH...REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NC. THE ONLY APPRECIABLE EVIDENCE OF A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THIS EVENING IS STILL WELL NE OF OUR AREA...FROM EASTERN NY TO NORTHERN NJ...AND SURFACE PRESSURE HAS ALREADY RISEN OVER MOST OF NC AND VA OWING TO INFLUENCES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. AS SUCH...THE PARENT 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIKELY BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WITH NO NOTICEABLE IMPACT. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SCT TO BKN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS INVOF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE LACK OF COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING RH IN THAT LAYER SUGGESTS THEY SHOULD BE SLOW TO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL NC...AND CONSEQUENTLY DECREASES THE PROBABILITY OF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT-EARLY SAT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 318 PM FRIDAY... SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD WEST-EAST ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST US INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AS DEEP FETCH OF EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW KEEPS A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS(1.5- 1.75")IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. EXTENSIVE NELY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER/MID 80S SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 259 AM SATURDAY... LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BOTH BE HIGHLIGHTED BY MORE CLOUDINESS THAN SHOWER CHANCES...AS A WEAK UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY... WITH A RIDGE OVER AND JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE SURFACE... A STABILIZING SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE LINGERING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD TEND TO BRING PLENTY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... TRIGGERS FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS APPEAR LACKING. THEREFORE... WE WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT CARRIES PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS... MILD TEMPERATURES... BUT VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED TO THE SE ZONES AND MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S. HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 80-85 RANGE WARMING A BIT ON TUESDAY INTO THE MID 80S. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN INCREASE WED-FRI AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND BECOMES STATIONARY OR WASHES OUT... FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT BY SAT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH WOULD AID IN THE CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 840 PM FRIDAY... 24 HR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL SUPPORT THE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT)... GENERALLY IFR/MVFR. EXPECT CIGS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY MORNING... BECOMING VFR AT MOST SITES BY AT LEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON... THOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THAT KGSO AND KINT WILL ONLY IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS ON SATURDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK: DEEP FETCH OF EASTERLY MARITIME FLOW WILL SUPPORT EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...77/CBL

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