Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 152328 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 625 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... In the wake of a low pressure system and cold front moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast, a secondary cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will then build across the deep South through Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 625 PM Wednesday... The skies have cleared and the strong, gusty winds have begun to diminish with sunset. The winds are expected to stay up around 10 mph through midnight, before becoming light toward dawn. Lows in the generally 27-32 expected.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Wednesday... Other than some stratocu drifting east off the mountains in west-northwest flow, skies will be mostly clear on Thursday on the back side of the upper trough. Cold advection will end Thursday morning and thicknesses actually rise a little during the afternoon. Deep mixing to around 850mb will support highs in the upper 40s northeast to mid 50s southwest and result in wind gusts to near 25kt, especially east where the pressure gradient will be strongest. A modified high pressure will build across the Deep South on Thursday and settle over the Southeast Thursday night. While the core of the low-level thermal trough will have moved east, still expect some areas to dip below most guidance as winds go calm under clear skies. One exception may be the northern half of the area where and orographically enhanced stream of cirrus is a possibility. Lows 27-31. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... Dry weather is expected Friday through the daytime Saturday, as a shortwave ridge moves across the Carolinas. Low level thicknesses are progged to increase during this time as flow in this layer becomes s-sw, thus a warming trend and temps some 5-10 deg above normal (highs in the 60s Fri and Sat and lows around 40 Sat morn). A southern stream short wave will then quickly move across the region Saturday night and early Sunday, but noted that models are showing this wave shearing out and weakening during that time. With the upper energy and sfc pressure falls quickly shifting off the coast Sunday morning, our area may end up with very light rainfall. As far as rain timing, looks like light rain may move into our far SW zones as early as Sat evening, then the best chance for rain Saturday night, then rain chances quickly ending by mid-day Sun as the wave moves to our east. Given the origins of this system, not anticipating any major airmass changes, so above normal temps will continue on Sun. For early next week (Mon and Tue), dry, very warm conditions are expected as a well-amplified ridge builds over the Southeast. Highs well into the 70s are expected both days. Then temps may fall back several degrees on Wednesday as a northern storm short wave dips down across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 609 PM Wednesday... 24-Hour TAF period: High confidence that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Strong, gusty winds have already abated at most terminals. Winds should be west-northwesterly at 5-8 kts overnight then increase to 8-12 kts with gusts of 18-25 kts by mid- morning Thursday. Aside from a few fleeting mid to high clouds, expect skies to be clear or mostly clear through the period. -KC Looking ahead: VFR through Saturday. A disturbance crossing the region on Saturday night may bring some sub-VFR conditions and light rain, but confidence continues to be low and there is a chance there will be very little impact. VFR is expected early next week. -Smith && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH NEAR TERM...SMITH/Badgett SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...np AVIATION...KC/SMITH

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