Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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328 FXUS62 KRAH 210615 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A disturbance in northwest flow aloft will cross the Carolinas this morning. Surface high pressure will follow and build across the Middle Atlantic states today, then offshore tonight. A strong sub- tropical ridge and associated hot conditions will otherwise expand from the central U.S. to the Carolinas through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 921 PM Wednesday... A front has become nearly stationary across the southern Sandhills and southern Piedmont. The front extended at mid-evening from just south of Charlotte, eastward to just south of Fayetteville and near Wilmington. Our region was mainly north of the boundary with only a few scattered cumulus clouds with a light NE flow. Dew points range from the mid 60s to lower 70s NW to SE. Along and south of the boundary, dew points were in the mid to upper 70s and the flow was very light south to southwest. Temperatures were fairly uniform in the lower to mid 80s. There have been scattered storms over the SW mountains of NC... moving southeast. Other widely scattered storms along and south of the boundary over the Coastal Area. These have been far removed from our region. For the overnight period, expect mostly clear skies. Patchy fog may again develop toward daybreak given the moist soils and rapidly closing dew point and temperature spread. Lows generally 64-68 NW to lower 70s SE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 PM Wednesday... On the heels of tonight`s upper disturbance, one more weak disturbance aloft will dive south across the area. Despite a slowly developing return flow, limited instability and moisture will inhibit anymore than just isolated convection over the western Piedmont, where weak theta e advection will be most prominent. 1000-850 mb thicknesses support highs within a degree or two of today`s highs, 86-91. Lows Thursday night again in the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 305 PM Wednesday... To begin the long term period, the region will be under northwest flow aloft as we remain between a strong upper ridge over the central conus and an upper trough over the Atlantic. However, the ridge will dampen some and start to spread east. Overall precip chances will stay rather low through the weekend, but will not be zero as there will be a persistent Piedmont trough that could be a focus for convective development, as well as any weak disturbances that move through in the northwesterly flow aloft. The bigger story will be the heat. As the aforementioned ridge spreads east, heights will rise over central NC. Max low level thickness values are progged to top out in the mid to upper 1440s (highest Saturday) and with temps not cooling off much as night, temps will be able to rise well into the mid 90s (maybe even some upper 90s). This combined with a moist air mass may necessitate the issuance of a heat advisory, most likely across the eastern half of the forecast area. The aforementioned ridge will shift even more over our region into early next week and possible offshore depending on which model you believe. Also, a shortwave trough is progged to cross the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday. This will propel a cold front towards the region, but models are in general agreement that it will stay to our north. Regardless, with us gradually losing the influence of the upper ridge and with a cold front in the vicinity, precip chances will start to increase, at least back to the normal diurnal range. The increased cloud cover and precip chances should allow temps to "cool" back to the lower 90s, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 215 AM Thursday... A disturbance in NNW flow aloft will dive SEWD across the Carolinas early today. The passage of this feature and associated lift may cause a few high-based (6-9 thousand ft) showers to develop and spread across the Piedmont through midday. Otherwise, areas of fog and stratus will probably expand across east-central NC this morning, owing to the presence of a surface ridge axis over east- central NC, and resultant good radiational cooling of a moist low level air mass characterized by surface dewpoints in the lower 70s there. VFR conditions and a light and variable surface wind will follow, and continue through the end of the 06Z TAF period. Outlook: Sub-tropical high pressure will expand across the SRN and Central Appalachians, and Carolinas, and result in mostly dry/VFR, and increasingly hot conditions, through the weekend. However, a small chance of early morning fog/stratus, and isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening storms, will be possible each day, but the probability of occurrence at any given TAF site will be quite low.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...BS LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...26

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