Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280719 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 319 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1020 PM SATURDAY... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EXTEDNING SOUTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE OF VIRGINIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC HAS RELAXED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STRATO-CUMULUS WITH A NORTHERN EXTENT THAT STRETCHES IN AN ARC FROM NEAR WILMINGTON NORTHWEST TO NEAR LUMBERTON OVER TO CHARLOTTE. THESE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIFT NORTHWARD VERY SLOWLY OVERNIGHT WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS MORE RAPIDLY SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT. ACCORDINGLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DECOUPLED AND CALM WINDS ARE BEING WIDELY REPORTED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER. AREAS OF FOG ARE DEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF BURLINGTON....SANFORD AND GOLDSBORO. WHILE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ISN`T EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ROCKY-MOUNT...RALEIGH AND HENDERSON AREAS IS EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE BASED ON RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOCATION TENDENCIES WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN COOLER SPOTS TO NEAR 60S IN THE AREAS OF STATO CUMULUS NEAR THE SC BORDER. -BLAES && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY... SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY MORNING... WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER GA/FL. THIS IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. TAIL END OF THE UPPER JET EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD LIFT... HOWEVER GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH... MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS LIMITED. HAVE SCALED BACK QPF TO UNDER A HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA... LOWER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER. SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING... AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AS SUBSIDENCE AND MIDLEVEL DRYING FOLLOWS... HOWEVER LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN TO WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WILL ALSO PROLONG LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN TO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PARENT HIGH REMAINS FAR TO THE NORTH OVER QUEBEC... UNFAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR A PROLONGED DAMMING EVENT... AND ANY REMAINING WEDGE WILL ERODE DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 318 AM SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY... AS A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE GOOD... WITH THE PARENT LOW MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 210 AM SUNDAY... UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR WILL BE SHALLOW FOG AND ASSOCIATED LIFR-MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KRWI/KRDU/KFAY... LOWEST AND LONGEST AT KRWI. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY SCATTERED MVFR RANGE CLOUD BASES MAY FOLLOW AS THE MOIST LAYER RISES AND DISPERSES THROUGH 16Z AT KRWI AND KFAY. OTHERWISE...BENEATH PERIODS OF PASSING CIRRUS...AN AREA OF 6-8 THOUSAND FT STRATOCUMULUS NEAR THE SC BORDER THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY...MOST NOTABLY AT WESTERN TERMINALS WHERE ASSOCIATED CEILINGS COULD RESULT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. OUTLOOK: THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES FROM MID LEVEL CLOUD BASES AT TRIAD TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MEASURABLE RAIN AND CEILINGS LOWERING INTO MVFR RANGE WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE MON INTO EARLY TUE...ESPECIALLY AT KFAY...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF COAST (WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC). A SURGE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KRWI AND KFAY ON WED. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...BLAES SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM...SEC AVIATION...MWS

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