Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250749 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 245 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will push across the region this afternoon and move offshore by early evening. Colder high pressure will blow into the area later today and tonight. A warm front will approach from the south late Monday. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM SATURDAY... High pressure dominated the Coastal Plain, with a return southerly flow confined to the western Piedmont early this morning. The main cold front was located across central KY and TN SSW into MS. A squall line was driving into the western slopes of the Appalachians. The line is expected to weaken into a narrow band of showers/isolated thunderstorms by 12z, when it will be nearing the Blue Ridge. This update will raise lows this morning due to the return flow keeping temps up in the west. Otherwise - no other changes at this time. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 342 PM FRIDAY... Deepening cyclone will lift north into Ontario and Quebec, with attendant trailing sfc cold front crossing the area Saturday afternoon/evening. With the better dynamics and deeper moisture lifting off to the north, accompanying band of convection will weaken across North Carolinas, with only isolated to scattered convection skirting across the northern tier. Temperatures will approach record territory once again, especially across the south-southeastern tier where it will remain mostly dry. Highs ranging from mid 70s NW to lower 80s SE. It will be breezy as well, with sustained winds of 15 to 18 kts, gusting to 25 to 30kts. As far as severe potential: Steep low-level rates from the unseasonably strong diurnal heating along with mid-level lapse rates of 6.8 to 7.50 C/Km will result in weak destabilization of 500 to 1000 J/Kg across central NC. Given impressive 50 to 60kts of unidirectional shear, it will be possible to see an isolated strong to severe wind gust across the northern tier. Strong post-frontal dry cold air advection Friday evening/night will result in abrupt clearing and seasonable overnight lows in the lower 30s NW to upper 30s/near 40 SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 PM Friday... A broad upper level trough covering most of the contiguous U.S. will result in a slightly unsettled weather pattern across the U.S. this period. Temperatures, overall, are expected to remain above or well above normal through mid-week. Afterwards, lower than normal heights translates to near or slightly below normal temperatures for the later half of the work week. A series of upper disturbances will keep the atmosphere slightly unsettled across central NC for the beginning of this period. High pressure building into our region Sunday in the wake of an exiting s/w and attendant sfc cold front will lead to drier cool conditions Sunday. This high quickly scoots offshore Monday, leading to an appreciable warm up with high temps expected to be about 8-10 degrees warmer than Sunday afternoon highs. Models in general agreement lifting a mid-upper level across the Deep South and the Southeast U.S. Monday night into Tuesday, leading to a chance of showers. At this time, the highest threat for rain across central NC appears to be late Monday night into early Tuesday. A more amplified s/w will begin to affect our region Wednesday with another chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This system exits our region Thursday morning, leading to a more stable and cooler period. Ahead of the mid week system, temperatures will once again average 10-20 degrees above normal with Wednesday`s high temps most likely in the 75-80 degrees range. Cooler temperatures anticipated Thu-Fri as a l/w trough develops over the eastern U.S. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 AM Saturday... 24 Hour TAF Period: Patchy sub-VFR conditions (MVFR-LIFR) are expected to develop across central NC early this morning, mainly across the eastern TAF sites (KRDU/KFAY/KRWI). Any sub-VFR conditions that develop should quickly lift within an hour of two of sunrise this morning, with increasing south to southwesterly winds in advance of an approaching cold front. Expect winds to increase into the 15 to 20 mph range by mid to late morning, with gusts of up 25-30 mph possible late morning into the afternoon. A cold front an associated broken band of showers and storms will move across the area this afternoon. The best convective coverage will be across northern portions of the area, where we could see a few strong to damaging wind gusts accompanying the strongest storms. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible with any convection. Winds will veer to westerly just behind a cold front that will cross the area immediately behind the showers/storms, during the afternoon hours, then to northwesterly. Wind will decrease to around 7 to 13 mph range by this evening, with some gusts of around 20-23 mph still possible through mid evening. Outlook: High pressure will build in from the west tonight through Sun, moving east and offshore Mon. The next chance for sub-VFR conditions will be Mon night, lasting through Tue night and perhaps into Wed, as southwest flow brings in low level moisture and an increased risk for showers, as well low stratus and fog, especially dusk through dawn. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for February 25: Greensboro: 81 (1930) Raleigh: 82 (1930) Fayetteville: 85 (1930) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...BSD/Hartfield CLIMATE...Badgett

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