Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 270604 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 103 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 905 PM MONDAY... COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AS EVIDENT OF BLUSTERY NW SFC WINDS IN THE TRIAD AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE RALEIGH DURHAM AREA THROUGH 10 PM...AND ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON...AND FAYETTEVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AIDING TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE RDU AREA SOUTHWARD TO FORT BRAGG. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GLIDE SEWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG JET (NEAR 150KTS) DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO DEEP SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PULL COLDER AIR FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ROTATING SOUTHWARD FROM VA INTO NE NC WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING ON THE TOP OF CARS OR WOODEN DECKS...BUT THE EXPECTED LIGHT PRECIP INTENSITY AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SUGGEST NO ACCUMULATION ON THE GROUND OR ROAD SURFACES. BLUSTERY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ADVECT A DRIER COLDER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WIND SHOULD EVAPORATE THE BULK OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THUS AS TEMPS DROP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK...NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE SCENARIO THOUGH COULD SEE A SLICK SPOT OR TWO ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINWATER NORMALLY COLLECTS AND IS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND. -WSS THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE 20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S. -BADGETT && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 145 PM MONDAY... WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS (WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE THE CASE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 145 PM MONDAY... THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW AND WARMEST SE. FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY... AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT. SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR ARE GENERALLY SPLIT BETWEEN VFR IN THE WEST WHERE IT IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND MVFR IN THE EAST WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES EVERYWHERE COMING IN AT 10 SM. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW WIND GUSTS OUT THERE UP TO 20 KTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAKES SINCE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE INCREASES CLOSER TO THE LOW OFFSHORE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 9Z. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION BEING THE NORTHEAST. ONE OTHER NOTE...PILOT REPORTS HAVE BEEN COMING IN AROUND KRDU AND POINTS NORTH FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE ICING FROM 4-12 KFT. LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...WSS/BADGETT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...ELLIS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.