Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 290056 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 855 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm moist southerly flow will continue through the weekend, as a strong high pressure ridge reigns off the Southeast coast.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 855 PM Friday... It was very warm across the region this evening, more like mid-June than late April. Readings were still 80+ at 800 PM for many areas. Combined with dew points near 70, or even 70-75 in the Coastal Plain with a southerly low level flow, lows tonight are expected to be nearly 20 degrees above the 30 year average. Skies were clear this evening; however, the southerly flow and near record dew point values that will continue to be pulled across the region suggest the development of stratus late tonight. The stratus is forecast by nearly all guidance. The most likely time frame is expected between 09z and 13z, before burning off rapidly rapidly before 14z/Saturday. Otherwise, mostly clear then becoming mostly cloudy. No POP overnight with no trigger for showers. Very warm for late April with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Averages are 48-53!
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&& .SHORT TERM /Saturday and Saturday Night/... As of 315 PM Friday... Persistence will rule through Sat night, as the mid level anticyclone continues to build just off the NC coast, and the surface ridge noses strongly westward over the Southeast. Expect another largely dry day despite high MUCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, as it coincides with a lack of dynamic forcing for ascent and limited moisture as PW falls further. And the orientation of the mid level anticyclone will shunt any isolated mountain convection well to our NW. Thicknesses are projected to be nearly 40 m above normal with plenty of isolation, yielding much above normal highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat index values peaking well into the mid to perhaps upper 90s. Warm and muggy Sat night, with another round of late-night stratus expected. Lows in the upper 60s to around 70. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 247 PM EDT Friday... Sunday the surface high will retreat eastward as a low pressure system moves across the central plains with a cold front extending down the Mississippi Valley. This will keep central NC in the southwesterly return flow regime and the warm temperatures will continue. Expect highs in the low to upper 80s with highest temperatures across the east with increasing clouds in the west keeping conditions cooler. Most of the day should be dry but cant rule out a stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm. The system to the west will cross the area Monday and Monday night, thus chances for precipitation go up considerably by Monday afternoon. Thunder will certainly be possible but the chances for severe seem pretty low at this time. Models are having a hard time nailing down how much QPF will be realized at this time. The front will come through and precipitation threat will end by daybreak on Tuesday. Behind the front, temperatures will moderate back into the mid to upper 70s. More of the same for Wednesday with temps rising back into the lower 80s in the east. By Thursday precip chances begin to increase once again as the Gulf of Mexico opens up and a series of shortwaves march towards the Carolinas with a stronger low pressure system forming by the end of next week into the weekend. This will keep weather unsettled with the treat for showers and storms Thursday and Friday with temperatures backing off into the 70s on Thursday and the upper 60s on Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 730 PM Friday... 24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions will continue this evening with dry conditions association with an expanding mid/upper level area of high pressure located just off the Southeast U.S. coast. However, abundant low level moisture will lead to redevelopment of IFR cigs overnight, most likely after midnight at all TAF locations (first KFAY/KRWI, then spreading northwestward). Winds will stay up at 6-12 kts overnight. Thus do not expect any fog tonight. The prevailing IFR cigs will rise to MVFR after 14z or so, then to VFR after 16z or so. Expect skies will become mostly sunny by noon, with a southwesterly wind at around 10-13 kts, with gusts of up to 17-20 kts possible. Outlook: VFR conditions will hold through Sat evening, with a good chance of sub-VFR stratus late Sat night into Sun morning, followed by VFR conditions the remainder of Sun, and afternoon storm chances confined to the mountains. The risk for sub-VFR conditions will increase Sun night through Mon, with a better chance of showers and storms Mon through Mon night as a cold front approaches from the west (although this front will dissipate before it gets into the area). VFR conditions are expected Tue into Wed. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...BSD/Hartfield

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