Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190813 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 413 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A hot and humid air mass will remain in place today. This occurs as a cold front will push into the region later today and tonight. The front is expected to stall over eastern NC on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /Today through tonight/... As of 305 AM Monday... Low pressure over the Great Lakes will help to move a cold front closer to the area today. This will cause an increase in precipitation chances by this afternoon and evening as moisture transport increases ahead of the front, combining with diurnal heating to bring chance to likely PoPs into the region. Lift will be aided by the right entrance region of an 850 mb jet over the northern portion of the CWA. This will be coupled with the greatest mid-level vorticity moving through the CWA during peak heating hours. The best upper level dynamics will stay well to the north of the area however. The day 1 outlook from SPC has a slight risk for severe weather northwest of US highway 1 with a marginal risk across the rest of the CWA. The most likely threat will be damaging winds with storm mode likely being multi-cellular or line segments based on bulk shear values of 20-30 kts. While some organization to storms is possible, hodographs are not particularly conducive to rotation and 0-1 km shear and helicity are both fairly low at 10 kts and less than 100 m2/s2 respectively. While freezing levels remain high, better organization of updrafts could mean some better chances for severe hail but still much less likely than severe wind. Expect precipitation to continue into Tuesday as the front slows to a crawl. This will keep good rainfall chances in the forecast through the middle of the week. High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday night/... As of 305 AM Monday... The front will continue to camp out over the CWA on Tuesday with the exact location yet to be determined. At least the southeastern half of the CWA will have a good chance at seeing precipitation all day on Tuesday with the NW half of the area less certain. If the front pushes further south, this area could be fairly dry although models show a disturbance moving up the front from the south that would bring precipitation back into the Triad later in the day. An 850 mb jet will remain over the southern half of the area to provide some dynamical support to continued precipitation but much of the stronger upper level flow remains well to the north of the area. Forecast sounds look very tropical in nature with deep moisture through much of the profile with much more limited CAPE than in previous days and low shear as well. As a result, the SPC day 2 outlook has central NC in general thunder with minimal severe threat. Temperatures will be cooler with highs only in the low 80s. Lows Tuesday night in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 100 AM Monday... With the main front expected to stall over eastern NC, there should be enough drying in the atmosphere to suppress convection especially across western and northern sections of NC. The close proximity of the front in the SE supports the continuation of at least a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the south and east Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will be a bit cooler again Wednesday, but highs in the mid 80s give or take a few degrees appear on target. Lows in the mid to upper 60s are expected again Wednesday night, with lower 70s in the SE. Deep moisture is expected to return quickly from the south on Thursday as high pressure builds in the western Atlantic, and the return flow around the high will bring the surge of deep subtropical moisture back with dew points again in the 70s. Once the moisture returns, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase again with 50-70 POP warranted Thu-Fri. Highs will warm back into the 85- 90 range with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s both days. Showers and thunderstorms appear to likely continue Friday through Sunday with a very moist flow mid/upper flow, very moist boundary layer, and a cold front (or two) making runs toward the region, likely stalling before pushing deep into central NC. So, a continuation of high POP`s, and eventually a flood or flash flood risk may evolve if the current QPF of 2-4 inches materializes into the late week and weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z Monday through Friday/...
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As of 115 AM Monday... 24 Hour TAF period: A loosely organized complex of thunderstorms is moving through the Triad and western Piedmont at this time. Most storms are below severe limits but frequent lightning is being observed. This complex is expected to weaken as it gradually moves westward. It may hold together long enough to affect KRDU later this morning. Some low stratus is possible again this morning closer to sunrise, especially in areas that have experienced precipitation. Later today a frontal system will approach central NC from the northwest and chances for precipitation will increase during the afternoon and evening hours. Southwesterly winds will increase through the day with some gusts up to 20 kts possible. Rain chances will continue through Monday night and beyond. Some storms could become severe with damaging winds the most likely threat. Long term: The front approaching central NC tomorrow will linger in the area, most likely over the east, through Wednesday. Uncertainty surrounding a low pressure center coming out of the Gulf of Mexico leaves a low confidence forecast for the end of the week.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...Ellis

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