Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 270720 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 320 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY... CENTRAL NC WILL LIE UNDERNEATH BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST US MIGRATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA. QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY TONIGHT. WHILE THE WEAKENING FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WILL HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE TODAY...CONTINUED UPWARD MOTION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE LOCALLY HIGH PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" WILL RESIDE...MAINLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER AT ANY TIME THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL NELY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S... LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS ELONGATED TROUGHINESS LINGERS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NEWED INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. UNDER INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE ...FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER MTNS AND FTHLS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INVOF WHERE THE SEABREEZE MAY BE ENHANCED BY NEARBY WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY... RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BEGINS TO RETROGRESS...PUSHING THE FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST WESTWARD TO THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE BLOCKED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WRAP AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO PRESENT A SURFACE PATTERN WITH AN APPEARANCE MUCH LIKE A DAMMING SCENARIO SANS COOLER AIR. THE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MINIMAL LIFT/FORCING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH LATER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID 80S. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE ON A GRADUAL INCREASE DUE TO WEAK ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION...REACHING 1.5 INCHES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY... PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE WEST...WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH LESS COVERAGE ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH MID 80S EACH DAY...WITH UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MIDWEEK AS ERIKA OR HER REMAINS WILL POTENTIALLY BE COMING INTO THE PICTURE. THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE SYSTEM TRACKS...AND WILL KEEP ITS IMPACT OUT OF THE EQUATION FOR NOW TO AVOID SEE-SAWING THE POPS EACH MODEL RUN. REGARDLESS...MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS WAY UP IN THE 80S...PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 110 AM THURSDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS COASTAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF IFR TO MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING AT KRDU... KFAY...AND KRWI. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...LIFTING TO VFR BETWEEN 16 TO 19Z. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES ARE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. OUTLOOK: THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL WASHOUT/DISSIPATE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND... ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS... OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR STRATUS/FOG AND ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...CBL

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