Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 181755 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure over the Mid-atlantic will extend across the region into the weekend. A cold front will approach the area from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1020 AM Wednesday... High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide central NC with clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures through tonight. After a chilly start to the day which saw morning slows down into the 30s across much of the Piedmont, temperatures ate late morning had recover into the 50s. Temperatures appear on track to reach the forecast highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Under clear skies this evening, temperatures will cool quickly after sunset, falling through the 50s early this evening, and into the 40s across the Piedmont after 10 PM. Min temps in the upper 30s-lower 40s common, slightly warmer over the southern coastal plain where patchy low clouds may develop prior to daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... A quiet weather regime continues into Thursday and Thursday night as surface high pressure remains in control. A short wave trough pushes across the Carolinas on Thursday and offshore on Thursday night resulting in some transient and patchy cirrus clouds. Some shallow moisture could result in some patchy fog or stratus across the Coastal Plain toward daybreak Friday. Otherwise, skies should be generally clear. Highs on Thursday will range in the lower to mid 70s with lows Thursday night in the lower to mid 40s. -Blaes && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Wednesday... Glorious "fair" weather will continue through the weekend as the upper ridge axis shifts east and over the area Friday and Saturday, then offshore Sunday. The dry surface high follows suit, with low level easterly flow gradually veering more southerly through the weekend. Expect sunny skies with light winds and highs reaching the mid to upper 70s each day. Morning lows will be nippy, but warming a bit, with Saturday morning`s lows mostly in the upper 40s warming to the lower 50s for Sunday morning, and further to the mid 50s Monday morning. By Sunday night, the low level winds will be southeast and increasing as a strong cold front edges east towards the mountains. Upslope flow will produce increasing cloudiness spreading in from the west Sunday night, with showers developing as far east as the western Piedmont (Charlotte and the Triad) by Monday morning. Shower coverage will increase throughout the day, enhanced by the approach of stronger upper dynamic support associated with an upper level short wave which will be moving east across the area Monday night. While still subject to error, the timing of the deepest moisture, low level forcing, and upper dynamics which would favor stronger convection align best Monday night into early Tuesday, missing out on our strongest diurnal instability. Highs Monday prior to frontal passage should reach mid and upper 70s, with warm air advection offsetting the lessened insolation. There is considerably more uncertainty as to whether we have a relatively clean cold frontal passage on Tuesday with drying to quickly follow, or whether we might have a more vigorous upper short wave move across to produce more widespread convection during the day, and will maintain ~50% PoPs. The cold air surge behind the front will be delayed until later in the day, and highs Tuesday should have a chance to reach upper 60s to lower 70s. The colder, drier air will be settling into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday, with mins falling into the 40s Tuesday night, and highs stalling mostly in the lower 60s on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 120 PM Wednesday... There is a high probability of VFR conditions to persist across central NC through 00Z Friday as high pressure at the surface and aloft controls the weather across central NC. The only exception will be a brief instance of MVFR fog in proximity of KFAY and possibly KRWI early Thursday morning, primarily between 10Z-12Z. As the sfc high drifts offshore by the weekend, the instance of early morning fog with visibilities predominately in the MVFR category may occur. Surface winds through Friday will be light at less than 10 kts, and mostly from the east-northeast. The next threat for widespread sub VFR parameters will occur early next week ahead of an approaching cold front. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...WSS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.