Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241146 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 746 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Cindy will fill and lift quickly up the middle Atlantic coast this morning. A trailing pre-frontal trough will linger over the ern Carolinas today, ahead of a cold front that will cross our region tonight. The front will stall along the southeast U.S. coast through Sunday, then drift offshore Sun night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 430 AM Saturday... Amidst a diurnally-heated and continued very moist boundary layer characterized by surface dewpoints mostly in the lower 70s, and beneath modest wswly flow aloft between a sub-tropical ridge off the southeast U.S coast and a broad trough centered over ern Canada and the Great Lakes, a couple of pre-frontal troughs will provide a focus for scattered convection by early this afternoon. While shear profiles in the lowest 3 km will be weak, as the remnants of Cindy continue to rapidly weaken and lift up the nrn middle Atlantic coast, modestly strong flow above 3 km, on the order of about 40 kts at 500 mb, will support effective bulk shear values around 35-40 kts and also relatively long and straight hodographs. The magnitude and character of the shear may yield a few (supercell) storm splits, particularly across srn and ern NC where surface dewpoints in the 70s will be maximized and consequently favor pockets of moderate instability. Both hail and damaging wind gusts would be favored from this convective mode, despite weak mid level lapse rates. Otherwise, multi-cell clusters capable of precipitation-loaded strong to marginally severe wind gusts will be favored through the evening hours. Meanwhile, a cold front analyzed from ern NY swwd through wrn VA and central TN and KY will settle slowly sewd, and across central NC overnight. A chance of showers and storms will consequently linger, and only slowly collapse sewd with the slow passage of the front and following cooler and drier air-- overnight. The front is likely to stall over the ern Sandhills and srn and central Coastal Plain by 12Z Sun. Given little change in airmass until the the fropa, temperatures today are expected to climb into the 86 to 93 degree range, with lows tonight in the middle 60s over the wrn piedmont to middle 70s east of I-95. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Saturday... Dry weather is generally expected for a large portion of the area for Sunday, outside of a lingering chance of some isolated showers/storms across our far southeastern portions of our forecast area, near the stalled frontal zone to the south and east of the forecast area. However, with the main surge of cooler area still to the north and west of the area expect high temps on Sunday will generally be in the mid to upper 80s, with even a few 90s in the far s/se. Dry weather will continue into Sunday night/Monday morning, with low temps generally in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 410 AM EDT Saturday... A reinforcing dry cold front will move through the area late Monday/Monday night, ushering in even cooler air into the region. Highs Monday in advance of the front are expected to be in the 80s, with highs on Tuesday generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dewpoints in the 50s. Lows Tuesday morning area expected to be in the 60-65 degree range. A more pronounced mid/upper level disturbance is expected to move through the area on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. The GFS and ECMWF still differ on if any showers/storms will develop across the area with its passage. Given the expected dry airmass in place in advance of the feature, will limit pops to a slight chances and only mention showers for Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night are expected to generally be in the mid to upper 50s. Surface high pressure will move across the area midweek and set up shop offshore by late week. This will yield a warming trend back to seasonal norms by the end of the week, with chances for mainly diurnal convection slowly increasing by the end of the period (though most if not all of the area will remain dry from Tuesday late evening onward). && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday through Wednesday/... As of 745 AM Saturday... A narrow east to west-oriented band of 1500-3000 ft stratus centered from near CLT to RWI to ECG will gradually lift and disperse through 15Z, but not before resulting in a chance of MVFR ceilings at all but INT/GSO for the next few hours. A few lingering wind gusts to around 20 kts will also remain possible, also mainly east of INT/GSO this morning, as the remnants of Cindy move rapidly up the nrn mid- Atlantic coast. Scattered to numerous showers and storms with associated sub-VFR conditions are expected to develop with diurnal heating after 17Z, and some may congeal into multi-cell clusters and spread east across central NC late this afternoon and evening, all in advance of a cold front that will move slowly southeastward across the forecast area overnight. A chance of showers and storms will consequently linger at ern sites, and especially FAY overnight, as the front stalls over sern NC. There will be a chance of low stratus or fog over ern NC, including at FAY, ahead of the front where low level moisture/ humidity levels will remain high, late tonight-Sun morning. Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through the middle of next week, aside from a chance of a shower or storm on Tue, especially at ern TAF sites. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...BSD LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...MWS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.