Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 231830 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 230 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to build over the SE US today and tonight. This high will weaken as shift south of the area on Monday, in advance of a dry cold front moving through the area Monday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1005 AM Sunday... Northwest flow aloft and weak surface troughing in the lee of the mountains today. 120m height rises at H5 noted in regional raobs will is resulting in strong subsidence and clear skies, with a slowly backing west-northwesterly low-level flow and neutral thermal advection helping to help warm moderate temps a little today; 68-70 most everywhere per consensus of guidance. A few wind gusts to 15- 20kt may be felt at times and have been added to the forecast, but otherwise no changes. Not as chilly tonight, with lows in the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 AM Sunday... A series of shortwaves diving through the back-side of the upper low over eastern Canada and attendant upper level trough extending across the eastern US will push a dry cold front through the area late Monday afternoon/evening. In fact, west-northwesterly downslope flow preceding the moisture-starved front will make it hard-pressed for even a few clouds to accompany the front. As such, we will see another day of unlimited sunshine with temperatures warming into the mid to to upper 70s(south)ahead of the front Monday afternoon. Modest CAA Monday evening/night on the leading edge of Canadian high pressure building into the area from the NW will support lows in the lower 40s north to mid/upper 40s south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Sunday... Fairly mundane period of weather for the long term with only one real system of note and that is a low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes region with a cold front extending southward which will affect the Carolinas sometime in the Thursday night through Friday morning time frame. At this time, the models are fairly consistent and in agreement on timing but the southward extent of the precipitation with the front is less certain. If the timing is correct, it will be unfavorable diurnally and perhaps a limiting factor in the rain and the best jet dynamics will pass north of the area. For now will represent this in the forecast with a slight chance for showers but no higher than that for now. Otherwise expect cool temperatures for much of the week with highs in the mid to upper 60s moderating to the low 70s late week and lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The coldest night will be Tuesday night where temperatures most likely will stay in the low 40s with a some upper 30s in rural areas. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 140 PM Sunday... High confidence forecast for the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will prevail with clear skies and,other than a few gusts to 10-20kt at INT and GSO this afternoon, generally light westerly winds. Forecast soundings show a very sharp surface inversion developing after sunset with 25-35kt winds around 2000 ft overnight, which may result in low level wind shear until the inversion break around 12Z Monday morning. After that, westerly winds may again gust to 15-20kt late Monday morning before a dry cold front drops into the area from the north and begins to bring winds around to northerly Monday afternoon/evening. Looking Ahead: VFR conditions will dominate for much of the week. A low pressure system will move into the region and bring a better chance of sub-VFR conditions by the end of the week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL/BS SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...BS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.