Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 131720 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1220 PM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually build into central NC through Wednesday, leading to a dry and seasonably cool stretch of weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1220 PM Monday... Recently updated the near term forecast to raise high temperatures a couple of degrees, primarily across the west half, as abundant sunshine through mid afternoon will result in warmer temperatures. Stratocu deck eroding quickly across the Piedmont, and will do so shortly across the coastal plain This will lead to abundant sunshine across most of central NC through mid-late afternoon. Toward sunset set, expect the stratocu deck to re-develop. The display of sun will aid to boost afternoon temperatures to near 60-lower 60s across most of central NC, excluding the ne counties where the later departure of low clouds will translate to max temps in the mid-upper 50s. ~WSS Tonight: Areas of stratocumulus will bubble and result in partly to occasionally mostly cloudy conditions, mainly over the nw Piedmont and perhaps Coastal Plain, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s - coolest over the cntl Piedmont, between the aforementioned most likely areas of more concentrated stratocumulus. ~MWS
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Monday... The shortwave trough forecast to amplify into the srn Appalachians by 12Z Tue will swing off the SC/GA coast by Tue evening; and while associated, preceding QG-forcing for ascent will be strong over the Carolinas, that lift will be acting upon a deeply dry and statically- stable atmosphere, so only passing cirrus and some enhancement to stratocumulus in nely low level flow are expected to result. Surface high pressure will otherwise expand across the ern US, with high temperatures in the middle to upper 50s, and good to excellent radiational cooling conditions that will favor lows in the lower to middle 30s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... Fair weather and seasonable temps expected on Wednesday with high pressure over the area and westerly flow aloft. Wednesday evening and night, a short wave trough moving moving across the eastern Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic region will push a cold front south and across central NC. Thanks to prefrontal westerly flow and limited prefrontal moisture advection, the cold front will move through dry. Behind this front, high pressure will build in from the west but quickly move offshore as the next short wave trough moving across the central Plains moves east. During this time, look for fair weather both Thursday and Friday with near normal temperatures. Then early in the weekend, a more potent short wave trough and cold front will move across the East, bringing a brief period of wet weather followed by clearing skies and a cooling trend. However, the ECMWF and GFS continue to differ on the timing of the fropa, with the GFS about 12 hours faster than the ECMWF. The GFS suggests rain chances and fropa during the morning Saturday, while the ECMWF brings that rain and front across during the evening Saturday. Both show clearing skies, breezy conditions, and CAA in the wake of the front for Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 1220 PM Monday... Mostly VFR conditions expected through 22Z. After which, a deck of stratocu with bases 1000-2000ft expected to develop overspread most of central NC. This deck of low clouds may lower into the IFR category later tonight. In areas where the low clouds do not develop, expect fog to occur, likely reducing the visibility to less than a mile with pockets of dense fog probable. Similar to this morning, the fog and low clouds will linger through mid morning then lift and scattered into a cu field in the afternoon. A dry sfc cold front will cross the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night, spreading a drier air mass into the lower half of the atmosphere. This will limit/inhibit the formation of low clouds and fog early Wednesday morning. Aside from pockets of early morning fog/low clouds, expect VFR conditions Wednesday through Friday night. The next threat for sub VFR conditions will occur with a frontal system that is expected to affect our region Saturday.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...np AVIATION...WSS

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