Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230006 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 805 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Bermuda high pressure will extend westward from the Atlantic across the Carolinas through Friday. Low pressure will pass by to our northwest, crossing the central Appalachians Friday night into Saturday morning, before moving off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will drag a trailing cold front through our area late Saturday through Saturday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 215 PM EDT Thursday... The influx of deep moisture(PWATS 2.0-2.25")and upper vort impulses between the surface high located over Bermuda and what is now T.D. Cindy over east TX/west LA will support scattered showers into the overnight hours, along with a few thunderstorms across the Sandhills this afternoon, where some tempered insolation has allowed weak to moderate instability(500-1000 J/Kg MLCAPE) to develop. By ~ 06z, the brunt of disturbances look to pass to north/northeast of the area with little in the way of lift within the very moist airmass. Otherwise, expect low stratus again with balmy lows in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Thursday... The plume of high >2.0" PWATS over the Carolinas briefly lifts away from the area, before a secondary surge late Friday night and Saturday as the remnants of Cindy approach from the west. There will also be a void in forcing over the region on Friday as well, with only insolation and the inland retreating seabreeze boundary acting on the continued moist/muggy low-level airmass. Will have a small chance/scattered pops across the southeast, otherwise isolated. After extensive morning stratus, highs should rebound quickly in the warm sector reaching the lower 90s SE, with mid to upper 80s NW. breezy SW winds to 20-25 MPH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 323 PM EDT Thursday... The lower/mid tropospheric remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy are forecast to become increasingly sheared and will accelerate NEWD through the southern Mid-Atlantic States early Saturday as it gets picked by the westerlies ahead of the northern stream trough digging into the Central US. With the remnant circulation/PV anomaly associated with Cindy expected to pass north, so will the heavy rain/flooding threat, with QPF amounts having decreased significantly across the area. Instead, a concentrated area of warm moist advection, along the leading edge of a H8 50kt LLJ, will fuel a band of showers and thunderstorms into western NC, that will weaken as they progress eastward into the central and eastern Saturday morning as the better support aloft lifts off to the northeast. Convective re-development is then expected during the afternoon and evening, as the lead cold front moves into the area, before stalling near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Scattered in the west, to possibly numerous showers and storms in the east are possible Saturday afternoon, with a few strong to severe storms possible in the east. Additionally, with the front forecast to stall out, some localized/isolated flooding is possible as storms train along the stationary boundary. A stronger disturbance aloft in the cyclonic flow across the eastern half of the country is expected to approach and move across the area early next week, along with an associated cold front. This will give us another chance for some showers and storms on Monday into Monday night, along with a push of drier and cooler air, with highs by Tuesday possibly struggling to reach 80 across the Piedmont and some low temps dropping into the mid to upper 50s by Wednesday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday through Tuesday/...
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As of 805 PM Thursday... While patchy sprinkles will persist over the area through much of the evening, vsbys and cigs should stay VFR. But starting around 06z in the west and closer to 09z in the east, MVFR clouds, with periods of IFR clouds, are expected to overspread much of central NC, along with occasional light rain that may produce MVFR vsbys for a couple of hours. Cigs are expected to improve to VFR by 12z at INT/GSO, by 13z at RDU, and by 15z at RWI/FAY, with rain exiting the area. VFR conditions are expected to persist areawide from 15z to the end of the TAF valid period. Winds will be light (under 8 kts) from the SW much of tonight, increasing to 12-16 kts close to daybreak Fri and remaining there through Fri, with occasional gusts to 18-23 kts. Looking beyond 00z Sat (Fri evening), areas of rain and a stout gusty breeze from the SW are expected to spread in Fri evening, lasting into Sat morning, with prevailing sub-VFR conditions late Fri night through daybreak Sat. VFR conditions should resume late Sat morning lasting through Sat night, despite passage of a cold front southeastward through the area late Sat into Sat night, although FAY may see some strong storms Sat afternoon. VFR conditions will then dominate Sun through Tue under the influence of surface high pressure. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...CBL/BSD AVIATION...Hartfield is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.