Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 150008 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 805 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure across the region will bring dry weather through Sunday. A cold front will cross the area late Sunday night through Monday, bringing a chance of rain. This front will usher in much cooler air for Tuesday into Wednesday, with dry weather.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 315 PM Saturday... Almost all stratus has broken out west of I-95 this afternoon and visible satellite shows the telltale signs of eroding in the east as well. This will be complete in the next hour or two and then dry VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon. Temperatures will most likely come out well under forecasted highs with low to upper 70s across the area. Overnight tonight expect another round of fog and low stratus starting to build in after 6z with the lowest visibilities between 9- 13Z Sunday morning. Most locations should see at least IFR conditions if not lower. Low temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM Saturday... Sunday the high pressure breaks down ahead of a frontal system advancing into the area from the northwest. By Sunday afternoon a surface trough will set up across the area with southerly flow brining warm air advection into central NC. This will boost high temperatures back up into the low to mid 80s. Although there will be increased moisture advection, conditions are still expected to be dry at least through the afternoon. Rain chances will pick up Sunday evening after 00z and into the overnight hours. Lows in the mid 50s in the NW Piedmont to the mid 60s in the southeast with the numbers in the Triad dependent upon how quickly the colder airmass moves into the area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 250 PM Saturday... Long-awaited cold front will be moving swiftly across central NC early Monday, providing us our only chance of showers through next weekend. Strong low level convergence associated with this front, sadly, will not realize anywhere near its full potential for producing much-needed widespread and significant rain, as passage will be too quick and early in the day to tap instability needed for deeper convection. There will be line of perhaps vigorous showers reaching the Triad around daybreak, with some stronger showers in the Triangle/Fayetteville/I95 corridor during the early afternoon, but the timing window for rain at any location will be limited - probably no more than 2-3 hours as the front races southeast. As such, amounts will be on the order of 1/4 inch...with some luckier folk receiving 1/2 inch. Clearing will quickly follow the front, but the temperature rises will be delayed and hampered by cold air advection which will accompany the clearing. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 60s. Much cooler and drier high pressure will build east and settle over the eastern seaboard Tuesday and linger for the remainder of the week. There will be a very gradual warming trend through the week as the airmass modifies under strong insolation. Highs will bottom out on Tuesday, reaching mainly mid 60s, then warm a couple of degrees per day to reach the mid to upper 70s by Friday and Saturday. Sweaters will need to be pulled out of the mothballs, as mins tumble into the low to mid 40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, with mostly mid to upper 40s Thursday through Saturday mornings. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday through Thursday/...
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As of 805 PM Saturday... With the exception of the far eastern Coastal Plain including RWI (where MVFR cigs held on), skies cleared out to VFR with unlimited skies this afternoon. But with lowering dewpoint depressions and stable and calm surface air, capped by warming aloft to reinforce the surface-based stability overnight, we should see sub-VFR conditions redeveloping tonight at all sites, with widespread fog and thin stratus. INT/GSO are expected to trend to MVFR after 08z then to IFR after 10z. RDU/FAY/RWI are expected to trend to MVFR after around 04z and to IFR after 08z. The fog and stratus are expected to burn off rather quickly with heating at all sites between 13z and 14z Sun morning, yielding generally clear skies beyond 15z, with a breeze from the SW at 7-12 kts. Looking beyond 00z Mon, VFR conditions will hold through the evening, but MVFR cigs and patchy rain will move in NW to SE shortly after midnight, between 05z and 08z. INT/GSO will trend back to VFR as dry air moves in behind the front shortly after 12z Mon, while RDU/RWI/FAY won`t improve to VFR until after 16z Mon. VFR conditions are likely late Mon through Thu as dry and cool high pressure builds in from the W and NW. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Ellis SHORT TERM...Ellis LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...Hartfield

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