Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 270132 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 935 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY... A MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN FRINGE OF CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AS PER AREA SOUNDINGS...INDICATING PRECIP WATER VALUES AT MHX STILL CLOSE TO TWO INCHES. CLOSER TO HOME...PRECIP WATER VALUES RANGE FROM NEAR/JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE FAR WEST TO 1.5 INCHES IN OUR COASTAL PLAN COUNTIES. CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF 700-500MB TROUGH...TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF CLINTON AND GOLDSBORO. A STORM OR TWO BRIEFLY ORGANIZED THANKS TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KTS OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES. STORM IN SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY NEAR MOUNT OLIVE DISPLAYED THE BEST STRUCTURE FOR 15-20 MINUTES...PRODUCING A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF PEA- MARBLE SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW HAILSTONES THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. AN INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 700MB IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW LEVEL EAST-NE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATELY MOIST AIR MASS IN THE LOWEST 10K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ISOLATED IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I- 95 CORRIDOR. WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD SEE CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PLAN TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINS A DEGREE OR TWO AS LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SINCE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S STILL COVER THE PIEDMONT AND CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LOWER/THICKEN OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL BE COMMON...NEAR 70 IN THE SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 307 PM WEDNESDAY... SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... AND WE WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME AT THE SURFACE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA... AS THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S... LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 100 PM WEDNESDAY... RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BEGINS TO RETROGRESS...PUSHING THE FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST WESTWARD TO THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BE BLOCKED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WRAP AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO PRESENT A SURFACE PATTERN WITH AN APPEARANCE MUCH LIKE A DAMMING SCENARIO SANS COOLER AIR. THE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MINIMAL LIFT/FORCING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH LATER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID 80S. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE ON A GRADUAL INCREASE DUE TO WEAK ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION...REACHING 1.5 INCHES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY... PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE WEST...WITH ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO THE EAST WITH LESS COVERAGE ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH MID 80S EACH DAY...WITH UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MIDWEEK AS ERIKA OR HER REMAINS WILL POTENTIALLY BE COMING INTO THE PICTURE. THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE SYSTEM TRACKS...AND WILL KEEP ITS IMPACT OUT OF THE EQUATION FOR NOW TO AVOID SEE-SAWING THE POPS EACH MODEL RUN. REGARDLESS...MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS WAY UP IN THE 80S...PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A LINGERING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE EASTERN TAF SITES WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT TIMES... WITH MORNING STRATUS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION (MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THURSDAY AT KFAY/KRWI). FURTHER WEST AT KGSO/KINT... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE... THOUGH A BRIEF SHOWERS OR TWO DURING THE TAF PERIOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT... THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. WRT THE THREAT FOR STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE SUB-VFR STRATUS RE-DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A MOIST GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME THURSDAY... WITH CIGS AGAIN SLOWLY LIFTING THURSDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES (OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION) BY MID AFTERNOON (~20). OUTLOOK: THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL WASHOUT/DISSIPATE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND... ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS... OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR STRATUS/FOG AND ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...77/30

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