Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220616 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 216 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push slowly southward through the area tonight. Cool high pressure will build into the region from the north Wednesday through Thursday night, then shift off the East Coast on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 AM Wednesday... The back edge of the line of showers and thunderstorms had reached into the Coastal Area as of 130 AM, with only residual stratiform rain following. A meso-low was located just NW of Wilmington, moving quickly east along with the convective outflow boundary. Areas of light rain extended back to near Statesville, Winston- Salem, and Charlotte. We will continue to carry POP for this stratiform rain through 400 AM for most of the Piedmont, and 600 AM over the Coastal Plain. Additional rain should be less than 0.10 of an inch. With the main push of very dry and cold air still over PA and MD, it will be 6+ hours before it reaches northern NC. Lows upper 40s north to mid 50s south with mostly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 115 PM Tuesday... Expect a clearing trend in the morning as a drier airmass advects into the region from the north, with clear skies during the afternoon and evening. Cold advection is expected to persist for the majority of the diurnal heating cycle on Wed as Canadian high pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic from the NW. Expect highs much cooler than today, in the mid/upper 50s N/NE to lower 60s S/SW. Lows Wed night may be tempered by increasing mid/upper level cloud cover after midnight. Will indicate lows ranging from the upper 20s (rural and low-lying areas east of I-95) to lower/mid 30s. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 210 AM Wednesday... A warming trend is expected late week into the weekend as surface high pressure will be located off the southeast U.S. coast, with mid level ridging moving across the area from west to east. This will result in generally dry conditions from Friday into Saturday night, before the mid level ridge shifts to the east while a mid/upper level low moves east-northeastward from the central/southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region and eventually across the northeast U.S. while weakening late weekend into early next week. This will result in increasing chances for some isolated to scattered showers and possibly a few storms Sunday into Monday. However, with the main track of the system now expected to track well to the north of the area will keep pops in the chance category (with some locations across the south and east possibly remaining dry through the period). Temps will be mild, with highs in the 60s to near 70 Friday, to 70s to near/lower 80s for the weekend into early next week. The next southern stream s/w disturbance is expected to track east/northeastward across the country, possibly phasing with a northern stream trough on Tuesday over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region. This will result in at least a small chance for showers and storms on Tuesday, but many question remain on timing and strength of the system remain. Regardless it appears the mild weather will continue through the forecast period, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Sunday/... As of 135 AM Wednesday... A return to VFR conditions is expected through 12z as the areas of rain and MVFR CIGS/VSBYS shifts east and offshore. A cold front and leading edge of strong continental polar high pressure will surge Swd through central NC early today. This will result in strong and gusty NNE winds developing between 12z and 15z, lasting through 20z or so. WInds will die off later this afternoon. Outlook...VFR conditions are forecast Thursday into Saturday, with a low probability of a few hours of MVFR to IFR ground fog at KRWI and KFAY Friday and Saturday around sunrise. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett/MWS

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