Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 042358 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 757 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT... THEN PASS OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 755 PM WEDNESDAY... THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AIDING LIFT. HOWEVER... THE RELATIVELY DRY AND VERY STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR RESIDING OVER OUR REGION (EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE) WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME. THEREFORE... WE WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POP... MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES LATER TONIGHT. QPF SHOULD BE LESS THAN 0.10. THERE WILL BE LOWER POP (SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SE). OTHERWISE... INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY... THU/THU NIGHT: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NC DRYING THE DAY THU. AS IS TYPICAL IN SUCH A SETUP...EXPECT SCT TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AID DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN `BOUTS` ATTENDANT POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANY UPDRAFT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN A LOWERING FREEZING LEVEL /COOLING ALOFT/. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC THU AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR (OR 0-8 KM) VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ESP IF WELL TIMED DPVA ROTATES INTO THAT REGION DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE (1-2") HAIL...THOUGH THE THREAT WOULD BE SPORATIC- TEMPORALLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL NC IN FAR NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA. EXPECT AREAS OF CONVECTION TO WRAP SOUTHWARD BACK INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS NE TOWARD THE DELMARVA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM VA. HIGHS WILL BE MODULATED BY CONVECTION...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. LOWS THU NIGHT ALSO MODULATED BY CONVECTION...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S WEST TO NEAR 50F EAST. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY... COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 6C/KM...BUT THUNDER WILL BE DAMPENED BY WEAK SHEAR PROFILE AND MINIMAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. EXPECT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND STREAM SOUTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTS NORTH...WITH COVERAGE AT A MINIMUM OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND COLD RAIN...WILL STALL IN THE MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END IN THE FAR NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT WITH MINS AROUND 50 SATURDAY MORNING. THE LARGER UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH LATER SATURDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CUTOFF LOW LINGERING IN THE EAST INTO AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BENEFIT FROM A LITTLE MORE SUN AND RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S. A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE PREVAILING FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS COULD FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PAINT THEM IN YET. CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN BOOSTING HIGHS TO NEAR 80. THE FRONT WILL BE EDGED NORTH OF THE AREA AS WE TRANSITION TO A RETURN FLOW REGIME WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ASSISTING A MILD WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 80 MONDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES. THESE CIGS MAY LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE DURING THURSDAY. VSBYS SHOULD TEMPORARILY BE LOWERED TO MVFR BY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM KGSO TO KRDU TO KRWI BETWEEN LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD: IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY FROM KRDU TO KRWI AND NORTHEAST INTO VA. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SAT-SUN. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...BADGETT

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