-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 140635
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY ALLOWING A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1005 PM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: AFTER 126 SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS IN CENTRAL NC (AT
LAST COUNT) TODAY... MOST OF THEM WIND DAMAGE... THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS OVER... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS OVER CUMBERLAND/BLADEN/SAMPSON
COUNTIES. HERE IT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE (MUCAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG) WITH GOOD 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS AND DECENT DYNAMIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL DPVA AS THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH. BUT CIN HAS RETURNED WITH STABILIZING MID LEVELS AND LOWER
SURFACE-925 MB DEW POINTS. ONCE THIS CLUSTER CLEARS THE SE CWA...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NC OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRYING ALOFT (SEEN UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY) AND STABILIZATION ESPECIALLY 700-500 MB... YIELDING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE NEAR OR SOON AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE HELD
LOWS AROUND 60-67... WHICH AGREES WITH ADJUSTED STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
AND CURRENT TRENDS. -GIH

FRIDAY...IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STRONG LOW...WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 20KT IN PLACES
WITH MIXING. THESE VALUES SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS 850MB AND
925MB WINDS DIMINISH. WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND K INDICES SHOW A
BRIEF INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 85KT 300MB AND 55KT
500MB JET...DIVERGENCE AT 850MB AND STABLE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION. BUFR SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...
NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW HIGH SC OR LOW AC DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WILL AT LEAST FEATURE IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. -DJF

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT (ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL
REMAIN WEST OF OF THE REGION BEFORE FLATTENING OUT BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND) WILL LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. COMFORTABLE OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY LOWER 60S...BUT SOME UPPER
50S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO RETURN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

THE ACTIVE PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK. RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ACTIVE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FROM THE
NW. A VERY ACTIVE FRONT WILL DELINEATE COOLER AIR FROM HOT HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
POTENTIALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT SHOULD ESSENTIALLY DRIFT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY... STALLING OVER SOUTHERN NC. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO SC/GA LATE WEEK AS A MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO VA/NC FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND... BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE:

SUNDAY... MOSTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WITH LOWS AROUND 70. HIGHS 85-90.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 66-71. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. THURSDAY... VARIABLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS... ESPECIALLY SOUTH. LOWS 65-70. HIGHS 78-83.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLD
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH IN THE PRESENCE OF A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...PRIMARILY AT THE RDU/RWI TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-00Z...THOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE WELL TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT
7-12 KT IN ASSOC/W THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS OF 06Z...WITH
SPORADIC GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HRS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NC FROM THE
NORTH.

LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY
OVER THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SUNDAY-TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY
THE AFT/EVE HOURS ON BOTH MON/TUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/DJF
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT