Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220718 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 318 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will build eastward into the Mid-Atlantic through mid-week. A dry surface ridge will extend southwest into the region through late-week as high pressure moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 100 AM Monday... Synoptic subsidence in the wake of an upper level trough progressing offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning will increase surface pressure and strengthen high pressure over the Ohio Valley and Appalachians today, aiding the advection of a drier airmass into the region from the NW. Expect clear skies, a light NW breeze, and noticeably drier conditions (dewpoints falling into the 50s) with highs ranging from the mid 80s NW to lower 90s far south (near SC border). High pressure will build east of the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, with an attendant sfc ridge extending southeastward into the Carolinas. With a much drier airmass in place and clear/calm conditions, expect lows ranging from the mid/upper 50s in the typical rural/low-lying areas (especially west of Hwy 1 across the N/NW Piedmont) to the lower 60s elsewhere, perhaps 65F in the far SE Coastal Plain. -Vincent && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 AM Monday... Shortwave ridging aloft (located upstream over the MS river valley at 06Z this morning) will progress east to the Appalachians Tue/Tue night as an upper level ridge builds/strengthens along the Deep South Gulf coast...anchoring surface high pressure along the Mid- Atlantic coast and maintaining the dry surface ridge extending into the Carolinas from the NE. Expect continued clear skies with high temperatures similar to today, and lows Tue night a few degrees warmer than tonight. -Vincent && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 318 AM Monday... High pressure and relatively dry airmass will continue to provide fair weather for the mid-to-latter portion of the work week. Low level thicknesses are progged to gradually increase during this time, esp with the upper ridge building eastward and overtop the Carolinas by Friday, so seasonable temps on Wednesday will rise several degrees above normal, with highs returning to the lower 90s by Friday. Also noted that by Friday, a weak front is progged to drift south toward our area, but is expected to stall and dissipate as it approaches the VA border with little impact on our weather other than increased cloudiness. The weekend, right now at least, appears to feature fair weather with below-climo pops and near to slightly above normal temps given the pattern which features an upper ridge parked over the Carolinas. While not a concern for us now, we`ll be keeping an eye on the tropics given the disturbances that are out in central tropical Atlantic attm.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 AM Monday... 24-hr TAF period: VFR conditions and a light northwest breeze will prevail through the TAF period as a drier airmass advects into the region from the NW in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage. Looking Ahead: VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through mid to late week as dry high pressure builds eastward from the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, then gradually shifts offshore the Mid- Atlantic coast. -Vincent && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Vincent NEAR TERM...Vincent SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...np AVIATION...Vincent

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