Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 230511 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 120 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High Pressure will extend across the region through the week. Temperatures and humidities will gradually rise through late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 832 PM Monday... Little change needed to forecast. Surface analyses, satellite imagery, and regional radiosonde data reveal a dry, tranquil, and stable column, with little more than a few wispy high clouds expected overnight. Nearly calm air and the dearth of clouds will facilitate radiational cooling, yielding pleasant lows of 58-66. -GIH Previous discussion as of 150 pm Monday: In the wake of the upper trough moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning, quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop across the area as the flat subtropical ridging extends across the GOM and Deep South. Meanwhile, a strengthening dry air surface ridge building eastward into the Mid- Atlantic Region will deliver noticeably drier/less humid air into the Carolinas, with dewpoints falling into the 50s this afternoon and evening. With the dry air in place and clear skies and light winds overnight, strong radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 50s north, to lower 60s elsewhere, some of the coolest readings that many places have seen for nearly 2 months. -CBL && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Monday... Subtropical ridging to our south begins to extend/amplify north the area on Tuesday. At the surface, dry air surface ridge in place across the Mid-Atlantic States will retain lower dewpoint air over the Carolinas, resulting in comfortable RH values for late August. Seasonable highs in the mid 80s north to around 90 south. Lows a few degrees warmer than tonight, generally in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 302 PM Monday... Surface high pressure off the mid-Atlantic Coast will extend southeastward in to the area through Thursday, as upper level ridging over the Southeast strengthens through the end of the week. A weak cold front will drop as far south as VA Thursday and Friday, but will quickly weaken as the main upper level energy is directed well north near the Canadian Maritimes by the building ridge. Forecast will remain dry in this regime, with increasing upper level heights supporting a return to temperatures in the 90s by Friday through the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 120 AM Tuesday... 24 Hour TAF Period: High confidence of VFR conditions through the TAF period with high pressure in control. Late night MVFR to IFR ground fog is possible around KRWI between 08Z-12Z. Outlook... Long term: Continued VFR conditions are expected through Friday.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Hartfield/CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...Badgett

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