Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 201810 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 210 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will bring fair and seasonably hot weather to the region for the start of the new week. A strong cold front will bring increasing rain chances for the middle of the week, then will move east and off the coast by Friday, with cooler drier weather in its wake.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 210 PM Sunday... Fair weather in store the rest of today and tonight...thanks to high pressure centered to our north and a drier airmass over our area, as demonstrated by the latest mesoanalysis that shows pwat under 1.5" across much of our CWA and sfc dwpts, in some cases, in the mid 60s. Lows tonight around 70, but could see a few widely scattered lows in the upr 60s where those lower dew points are found. Finally, a bit of fog will be possible along the Coastal Plain and I-95 corridor, so for those hitting the highway early tomorrow morning, beware of some patches of fog reducing visibility in spots.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 210 PM Sunday... The forecast looks fairly good for Monday and the eclipse time, thanks to ridging both sfc and aloft. While the pattern suggests dry fair weather, forecast soundings suggest that some mostly- shallow cu may form as the afternoon progresses, with a notable increase in H8-H7 moisture west of the Triangle region, while areas from Raleigh south and east remain drier in that layer. That would suggest the greatest coverage of cu clouds west of the Triangle and lesser cu coverage east, and best sky conditions from Raleigh south and east. With similar airmass as today, look for afternoon highs in lower 90s along with heat index readings in the mid to upper 90s. Lows Monday night 70 to 75.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 PM Sunday... Tue/Tue Night: High pressure will shift offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast and a cold front will progresses southeast through the Ohio valley Tue/Tue night as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens in advance of an upper level low progressing across southern Ontario. As a result, rich low-level moisture will return to the Carolinas via southerly return flow and isold convection will be possible invof a pre-frontal trough in the lee of the Appalachians Tue aft/eve. Expect above normal highs 90-94F, warmest Sandhills, with lows Tue night in the lower/mid 70s. Wed-Thu Night: The aforementioned cold front will progress slowly SE through NC Wed/Wed night. The front may stall invof the Carolina coast Wed Night/Thu as cyclonic flow aloft strengthens over the region, however, high pressure should build southeastward into central NC Thu night as troughing aloft shifts to the eastern seaboard. Expect near normal temperatures Wed/Wed night, followed by below normal temperatures Thu/Thu night. Expect above normal chances for convection in assoc/w the front Wed/Wed night. Uncertainty increases w/regard to the position of the stalled front on Thu. Above normal chances for convection should persist in far E/SE portions of the state, including portions of the SE Coastal Plain. Lingering precipitation should exit from NW-SE or W-E Thu night. Fri-Sun: At this time, expect below normal temperatures and dry conditions Fri through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds eastward from the Great Lakes into New England and a pronounced surface ridge extends southward into the Carolinas, maintaining a cool/dry airmass over central portions of the state. -Vincent && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 120 PM Sunday... VFR conditions with scattered coverage clouds, along with wind aob 10kt, are expected through the 24 hour taf period. The exception may be KFAY and KRWI where a brief period of MVFR fog is possible between 21/09Z and 21/13Z. Outlook: The threat of mainly afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms and late night/early morning fog/stratus is expected to increase a bit on Tuesday. A strong cold front is expected to approach the area on Wednesday and reach the coast on Thursdays bringing a greater chance of adverse aviation conditions in showers and thunderstorms. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...np SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...np

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