Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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191 FXUS62 KRAH 122355 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 655 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and windy conditions are expected tonight in the wake of a strong cold front. High pressure will briefly build in to the area Wednesday. A fast moving upper level disturbance will move through the region Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... As of 550 PM Tuesday... ...Gusty winds through tonight with wind chill readings falling to the teens overnight.... Recently updated the near term forecast to introduce a chance for sprinkles/flurries across the far northern counties through 8 PM. A storm spotter in northern Person County recently reported a very light precip consisting of sleet/snow. Also, adjusted hourly temperatures up a bit to reflect current conditions. Still expect temperatures to tumble shortly as upstream locations have experienced hourly temperature drops of 5-8 degrees within an hour of the passage of the 925-850mb trough. This feature currently zipping through the Triad at 2230Z, and will cross the Triangle area between 23Z-00Z. Blustery conditions will envelope across central NC this evening and persist into the first half of the overnight. Wind gusts 20-30kts will be common with an occasional gusts around 35 kts possible, primarily north of highway 64. && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Wednesday night/... As of 310 PM Tuesday... The weather story for Wednesday will be continued cold temperatures, thanks to the cold airmass in the wake of today`s front. Low level thicknesses are progged to drop to around 1260m and 850mb temps down to -10 to -15C by sunrise Wednesday. Although both will gradually moderate during the day...resulting high temps will be held in the upper 30s north of the Hwy 64 corridor, and lower-mid 40s along and south of Hwy 64. Otherwise, the pattern will feature a transitory sfc ridge axis crossing the area and westerly flow aloft. Other than some high clouds in advance of the next mid level short wave, expect dry weather. The aforementioned short wave will cross the Appalachians early Wednesday evening then will quickly move across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic regions between 03-06Z Thu, before moving offshore overnight. Forecast soundings continue to show the 500-700mb layer becoming saturated Wednesday evening in advance of the short wave, mainly north and east of Raleigh. However, the airmass below 700mb is forecast to remain dry. That said, while the moisture and lift in that layer would suggest some light precip between 7 PM and Midnight, given the dry air below the cloudy layer, it would be difficult to get any more than just a few flurries with no impacts. Skies will clear out again after Midnight in the wake of the departing short wave, with lows from the mid 20s to around 30. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 237 PM Tuesday... Alternating periods of mild and chilly are expected Thursday into Sunday with the fast, mostly zonal flow aloft. Several mid/upper level waves in the fast flow will have little time to gather moisture for significant precipitation chances with their passage. The first system is expected to pass overhead early Thursday. Limited moisture will lead to skies becoming partly to variably cloudy. Thursday will be rather mild, with a dry cold frontal passage. Highs generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s SE. Colder air will follow, but not to the extent of the recent cold spell. Lows 25- 30 Thursday night, with highs 45-52 Friday with mostly clear/sunny conditions. Yet another fast moving trough will move across the region late Friday into Friday night. High pressure is expected to build in from the Gulf Coast states Saturday into early Sunday, with cool temperatures Saturday in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Milder temperatures expected Sunday as the high builds overhead. Some chance of showers may accompany the next wave by later Sunday or Monday. However, the theme of early next week will be mild with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Lows generally in the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 655 PM Tuesday... Blustery winds in the wake of a departing cold front will persist well into the overnight, then gradually subside close to daybreak. Wind gusts 20-30kts will be common through 09Z with occasional gusts around 35kts probable. A few sprinkles/flurries will be possible to the north and northeast of KRDU and KRWI. Ceilings 4500-6500ft in proximity of KRDU and KRWI will depart by 03Z. VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through Sunday. A passing disturbance Wednesday evening will bring a period of mostly cloudy skies and spotty light precip though ceilings should remain VFR. Another system will bring a slightly better chance for spotty rain showers though ceilings are still expected to remain VFR.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...np NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...np LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...WSS

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