Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 241604 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1204 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID-WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY... THROUGH 12Z MON...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (NEAR STEAMBOAT SPRINGS CO AT 12Z) WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TX TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND A SECOND WAVE (POTENT/COMPACT UPPER LOW) PROGRESSES RAPIDLY EAST FROM SOUTHERN CA TO WESTERN TX. FORCING ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MS RIVER VALLEY...AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. ACCORDINGLY...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES /DRY CONDITIONS/ AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY... THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL PERSIST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS 12Z MON...SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY 12Z TUE. AS A RESULT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW /AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION/ WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A DRY/STABLE/ SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC. EXPECT DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WARMEST IN THE SANDHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH A SURFACE HIGH OFF OF THE COAST. IF ANYTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE FORECAST...IT IS THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED INTO THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MAKES IT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER EAST. IN GENERAL...INSTABILITY INDICATES ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20 KTS OVER THE TRIAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THIS OCCURRING IS FAIRLY LOW BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...TO PICK A DAY THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOW 80S TO POSSIBLY LOW 90S IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURES IS RELATED TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH LESS CONVECTION WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPS WHEREAS IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR 90S LATER IN THE WEEK AND RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS. STILL ABOVE NORMAL REGARDLESS. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE TUE-THU AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...VINCENT

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.