Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 200002 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 802 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY... THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEDGES MORE PROMINENTLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MORE OF A EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FEED. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE BEHIND US...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OWING TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EVENTUAL ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. A STEADY NELY WIND OF 4 TO 5 KTS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SATURDAY: HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 250 CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE SE COAST BEGINS TO LIFT NE. IMPACTS FROM THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO BEARING ON FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE IN THE 1395-1402M RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S. SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD MAINTAIN MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER TEMPS OUT WEST WHERE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY... CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TO START THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FIRST...TO THE EAST...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ALONG THE REMAINS OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST THINKING FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT TAKE ON ANY 250 TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS...THE LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT ALL THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIRLY WARM DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST... PROPELLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE POOR DIURNAL TIMING AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WHICH MEANS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE MID TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST (AND STRENGTHEN) BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US. THUS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED... WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES (ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING ANY POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDINESS. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND SKIES ARE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...SEC/CBL

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