Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 251751 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 150 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BRING DRY AND SETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1025 AM MONDAY... TODAY: VERY PLEASANT MORNING IN PROGRESS AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH EXTENDING DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WHICH FOR THE MOST PART HAS KEPT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THE 3 KFT LEVEL. THERE ARE WIND GUSTS OUT THERE AS FAR WEST AS ASHEBORO EXTENDING THOUGH THE EASTERN BOUNDARIES OF THE CWA. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KTS HAVE BEEN SEEN THUS FAR AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY GAIN A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT...AND BEGIN TO ADVECT IN SOME 850 MB MOISTURE ONSHORE. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR CLOUD COVER FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PUTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN QUESTION. POINTS FROM HIGHWAY 1 WESTWARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE FULL INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM HIGHWAY 1 TO THE EAST. THE RESULTANT SHOULD BE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EVERYWHERE WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. IF CLOUD COVER DOES NOT INCREASE IN THE EAST...LOCALES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD ALSO SEE SOME MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. -ELLIS TONIGHT: WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCES INVERSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK TO MORE OF A NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO AGAIN BEGIN WORKING INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THUS... WILL SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN. TUESDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO BE MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. THIS SHOULD YIELD A BIT WARMER TEMPS. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BY SOME 5 TO 10 METERS. THIS COMBINED WITH MORE SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (83- 87). -BSD && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 150 PM MONDAY... TUE NIGHT: TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TUE NIGHT AS CENTRAL NC WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE PRESENCE OF WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. -WSS FOR WED/WED NIGHT: MORE QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. WHAT IS NOW TS CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF CHS WED MORNING... HEADING NE WITH NO CONSEQUENCE FOR CENTRAL NC`S WEATHER. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL START THE DAY CENTERED OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS... BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO THE SW. THIS SHIFT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING OVER SE CANADA/NRN NEW ENGLAND AND ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH WED NIGHT. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH HIGHLY STABLE/DRY PROFILES NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WHILE AN E-W BAND OF HIGHER PW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY PUSH IN NRN NC WED NIGHT... EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH... AS THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR ANY PRECIP. HIGHS AROUND 87-90 AS THICKNESSES START TRENDING BACK UP TO NORMAL VALUES. LOWS 63-66 UNDER FAIR SKIES. -GIH
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AS OF 150 PM MONDAY... FOR THU/THU NIGHT: MODEL TIMING DIFFERS A BIT BUT EXPECT THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NC SOMETIME THU... MOST LIKELY PUSHING WELL THROUGH THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF NC BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NNE. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE WEAKENING HOWEVER... AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES APPEAR TO DIP LITTLE (IF AT ALL)... BUT WE SHOULD SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND RISING (BUT STILL LOW) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN THE INCREASING (BUT STILL WEAK) NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS... DIMINISHING TO JUST ISOLATED CONVECT OVER NE NC AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT... RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT... AND SUB-750 J/KG MUCAPE... DOWNPLAYING THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS GOOD. ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS 87-92 AND LOWS 65- 70. FOR FRI THROUGH MON: SHOULD BE A WARM AND MOSTLY DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... WITH INCREASED STORM CHANCES TO FINISH IT OFF. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SHIFT QUICKLY OUT OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRI/SAT. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE VANISHES FRI... REPLACED BY SURFACE LEE TROUGHING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT FOR SAT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES START TO IMPROVE ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN CWA FRI/SAT BUT REMAINS MUTED... AND THE DEEPLY WARM/STABLE MID LEVELS AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP POPS AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER... BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES... FRI/SAT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRI AS IT SHIFTS EAST THEN NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES (PUSHED BY A STRONG PACIFIC NW UPPER JET)... GRADUALLY DAMPENING IN THE PROCESS AS IT GETS DEFLECTED BY THE STILL-FORMIDABLE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW THIS TROUGH HELPING TO BEAT DOWN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT... PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD TO SRN GA/FL AND THE ERN GULF. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SW FLOW AS WELL AS THE INCREASING SE/SRLY CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUSH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BACK UP NEAR AND JUST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY SUN/MON... AND WILL SHOW THIS ANTICIPATED TREND IN THE FORECAST. MODEL FORECAST THICKNESSES STAY AT 10-15 M ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... SO WILL HOLD ONTO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90... WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. -GIH
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&& .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 130 PM MONDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A FEW STRAGGLING MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EXTREME EAST...THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE FOCUS AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 KTS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN SITES WILL EXPERIENCE BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 3-5 KFT RANGE. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN THE EAST BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS VERY LOW. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. IF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DO OCCUR...THE WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO KRWI AND BE VERY SHORT-LIVED. FOR TUESDAY...MORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED SCATTED TO BROKEN CEILINGS AT 3-5 KFT. WINDS MAY TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT BUT SHOULD RELAX SLIGHTLY WITH 5-10 KTS SUSTAINED WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15 KTS AT EASTERN TERMINALS. LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AND ITS EFFECTS WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ELLIS NEAR TERM...ELLIS/BSD SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...ELLIS

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