Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 190550 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1250 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will cross central North Carolina early this morning. High pressure will build over the region today through Monday, before moving off the Carolina coast on Tuesday. Low pressure will form near Florida and track northeastward along the Southeast coast during mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1005 PM Saturday... No major changes made to the forecast with this update. Minor tweaks to the timing of rainfall, though it still appears the line of shower will move through between 04Z and 12Z from west to east across Central NC. Continue to favor the HRRR forecast through 7 AM. The cold front and associated pre-frontal convection, currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes/Western NY, southwestward along the Appalachians into Alabama. Previous discussion (As of 705 PM): The front is being propelled east-se by a shortwave crossing the Great Lakes and is projected to lift northeast into southern New England. The bulk of upper support lifts well north of our region, as the better forcing is with the low level front. However, this front will be encountering an atmosphere lacking moisture and instability compared to the air mass its currently crossing. Thus, expect the band of convection to gradually weaken in intensity as it crosses the mountains late this evening, and reach the Triad region after midnight (possibly closer to 2 AM). The increasing cloud cover and a steady breezy sly wind will cause evening temperatures to hold steady or possibly slowly rise through midnight-2 AM. The cold front and the narrow band of showers accompanying it should exit our coastal plain counties by sunrise. Clearing skies will occur over the NW piedmont by 4-5 AM, possibly reaching the highway 1 corridor by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 301 PM Saturday... Skies will be clear quickly early Sunday morning. The warm start to the day will partly offset the CAA. However, highs will still reach the mid 50s to mid 60s NW to SE. NW winds at 10-20 mph are expected with gusts to 25 mph. Winds will be diminishing Sunday evening and night. Clear skies will bring lows in the lower to mid 30s with some upper 20s in the northern Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 205 PM Saturday... Mid level ridging will keep the area rain-free for Monday into early part of Tuesday. From later Tuesday into Friday a trough will dominate the pattern over the eastern US bringing a chance for some rain to the local area. Best chances for rain will be Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and again Thursday into Thursday night as waves of low pressure move from the Gulf of Mexico across Florida to off the southeast coast. Temperatures Thursday night will drop into the 30s but confidence is very low for frozen precipitation to mix in with any rainfall. A rather flat west to east flow develops Friday night and Saturday with dry and seasonable weather for central North Carolina. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Thursday/...
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As of 1250 AM Sunday... Adverse aviation conditions are expected early this morning, in the first 4-6 hours of the TAF valid period, but will be followed by high-confidence VFR conditions from mid morning onward. A band of showers and gusty winds from the SW will cross the area quickly early this morning ahead of a cold front. A short period of MVFR cigs but mostly VFR (perhaps briefly MVFR) vsbys in showers is possible at all sites from west to east 06z-12z. Low level wind shear remains possible areawide as a 45-55 kt jet from the SW at around 1800-2000 ft AGL moves over the area. Cold frontal passage will feature an abrupt shift of winds from SW to NW, still gusty behind the front but winds will be reduced. After 12z (except after 14z at RWI), skies will clear out, with gusty winds from the NW persisting through the day. Winds will diminish after nightfall, with continued clear skies and unrestricted vsbys. Looking beyond 06z Mon, VFR conditions are likely through Tue as high pressure dominates at the surface. MVFR cigs are possible Tue night as low level moisture streams up and over a frontal zone sitting along the NC coast. Low pressure tracking NE along this front through Wed may bring sub-VFR conditions to RWI/FAY, while locations further inland are more likely to stay VFR. VFR conditions are likely areawide Thanksgiving Day as cool high pressure noses into central NC from the NW and the frontal zone shifts further SE away from NC. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...KC/WSS SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Franklin AVIATION...Hartfield

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