Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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382 FXUS62 KRAH 281441 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1040 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN STALLED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE REGION AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 1040 AM THURSDAY... N-S ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS THATS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IN PLACE NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. WV IMAGERY AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CENTRAL NC PRONOUNCED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THIS COULD DELAY CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ALLOWING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HEATING WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80-87 RANGE...COOLEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE SHOULD LEAD TO INITIATION WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT GOING ON OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. STRENGTHENING WESTERLY H5 FLOW WILL IMPROVE SHEAR VALUES TO 35 TO 40KTS...FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS WITH ONE OR TWO SEVERE CLUSTERS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT WILL DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS MARKEDLY IN THE MAGNITUDE. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST-EAST THIS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE BOTH SETTING UP TO BE DRIER AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. IT WILL TURN COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND... AND BRIEFLY EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHOW THE COOLING ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH WITH 70S EXPECTED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER RANGING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER COUNTIES. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... IT SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY... THEN EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS SATURDAY. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH... ESPECIALLY IN THE PM. WE WILL TREND THAT WAY AS MORE MODELS SUGGEST A QUICKER ONSET. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NOW LOOK TO BE WET WITH PERIODS OF RAIN... BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING ON SUNDAY. MODELS OFTEN SCOUR OUT CAD TOO QUICKLY... EVEN IN THE SPRING (WARM SEASON). THIS LOOKS TO BE A GREAT CASE OF THAT OVER OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF WAA RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION WITH AN AMPLE SUPPLY OF WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE DEVELOPING FRONT/THEN COOL STABLE DOME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AND USING THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH ALONG WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION... THE MAIN PARENT LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUT AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY... A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS SUNDAY. HOWEVER... IN-SITU/HYBRID CAD WILL LEAD TO INCREASING STABILITY AND THE DIABATIC PROCESS SHOULD THE RAIN BECOME WIDESPREAD AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 FOR THE QPF. THERE MAY BE A RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND RAINFALL GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW FROM CLINTON TO WINSTON-SALEM BY LATE SUNDAY IF THE WARM FRONT CAN SURGE INTO THE SE ZONES (PER SOME OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST EC). SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THEN WHEN THE FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH... IT MOSTLY LIKELY WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INTO TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT NEED RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES... THIS LOOKS TO BE A GREAT SHOT AT BOTH. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH ~12-13Z THIS MORNING AND A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF CONVECTION AS A SHEAR AXIS PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 12-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE EXCEPT TO SAY THAT NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS ATTENDANT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING S/SW INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...VINCENT

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