Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 280608 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 208 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...THEN STALL OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY... THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CROSS THE TRIAD/WESTERN PIEDMONT AS OF 06Z...THOUGH WILL LIKELY PROGRESS EAST OF THE YADKIN SHORTLY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BULK OF CENTRAL NC (EXCEPT PERHAPS SE COASTAL PLAIN) BY 12-15Z...THEN SLOW DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALL ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE VIRGINIAS INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT...THOUGH CHANCES WILL BY-AND-LARGE REMAIN EAST OF CENTRAL NC ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT RELATIVELY COOL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 50S (N/NW) TO LOWER 60S (S/SE). -VINCENT
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE MON NIGHT/TUE. AS A RESULT OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND GLANCING DPVA...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE LATE MON/MON NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ISOLD CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECISE LOCATION /INLAND PROGRESSION/ OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...MID/UPPER 80S...THOUGH LOWS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER MON NIGHT...MID/UPPER 60S. -VINCENT
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY... LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THIS SET UP...ANY SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR (MOSTLY DIURNAL) SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. INCREASING POPS SLIGHTLY MORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT MAKE ALL THE WAY INTO NC...POSSIBLY STALLING OUT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/WNW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY 12Z...WITH WNW WINDS AT 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY. LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID- WEEK...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. -VINCENT
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&& ..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...KRDU AVIATION...VINCENT

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