Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 152348 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 755 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure over the region will remain in place through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 PM Friday... A diffuse trough is over eastern North Carolina early this afternoon as weak sfc high pressure is centered over the central Appalachians. A rather extensive flat cu field has formed early this afternoon, capped by the strong mid-level inversion. There will be some afternoon sprinkles or isolated showers within these cumulus clouds mainly along and east of I-95. Patchy fog will form overnight mainly in low lying areas. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM Friday... A lee trough within a very weak surface pattern east of the Appalachians will get overwhelmed by both high pressure over the central Appalachians and the cyclonic flow around Jose. A light northerly low level flow and generally dry and warm conditions will result on Saturday. There is a slight chance of a shower over the Coastal Plain in the afternoon, capped by an inversion around 10K feet. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1155 AM Friday... Cloudiness will increase early in the extended, especially from the Coastal Plain eastward, given the offshore track of Jose, which is progged to lift north up the mid-Atlantic early next week. We could see a few showers develop in the resulting moist northerly flow east of I95 on Sunday and Monday. Tuesday through Friday look to remain generally dry and continued warm and relatively humid as a subtropical ridge sets up west of the area. Highs will be consistently in the low and mid 80s through Tuesday, warming to mid and upper 80s Wednesday through Friday. Morning mins will be in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Friday... 24-Hour TAF period: VFR conditions are expected to continue this evening, with some lingering scattered cumulus in the 5 to 8 kft range. We may see a brief period again where sub-VFR visbys (mainly MVFR) will be possible during the early morning hours of Saturday. However, with lingering moisture trapped under the strong inversion at around 8 to 9 kft, think any sub-VFR conditions will come and go at best, except at fog prone KRWI (where LIFR to MVFR visbys will be may be more persistent). VFR conditions are expected generally after daybreak on Saturday, and continuing through the end of the 24 hour TAF period as surface high pressure extends into the area from the NNW, though we may again see some fair weather cumulus develop in the 5 to 8 kft range. Looking ahead: Aside from some early morning/predawn fog, weak high pressure at the surface and aloft will result in dry VFR conditions through early next week.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franklin NEAR TERM...CBL/Franklin SHORT TERM...MWS/Franklin LONG TERM...mlm AVIATION...BSD/Franklin

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