Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 200836 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 435 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING AND STALL OVER SC LATER TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETREAT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 415 AM WEDNESDAY... ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT BISECTING CENTRAL NC FROM NE TO SW THIS MORNING WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL OVER SC TODAY. ASSOCIATED POST- FRONTAL DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE CENTRAL NC AND RESULT IN SFC DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY. ASIDE FROM CIRRUS...SKIES WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE RAH CWFA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCT CU OVER THE SOUTHERN RAH CWFA...WHERE BL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED FRONT OVER SC. IN FACT...SAID MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SHOWER OR STORM SOUTH OF CLINTON...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES FARTHER SOUTHEAST...ALONG BOTH THE FRONT AND THE SEA BREEZE OVER SE NC. NOT AS WARM AS RECENT DAYS EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WHERE UPPER 80S (NEAR 90) ARE PROBABLE...RANGING TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT: A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ONE INITIALLY OVER NEBRASKA AND THE OTHER OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MASS RESPONSE WILL RESULT IN THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A SFC WAVE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT. WIDE-RANGING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...COOLEST NE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY... WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC ON THU...THEY STILL DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECEDING WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. THOUGH THESE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW PRECEDING THE SFC LOW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AT THE BASE OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL YIELD A FAVORABLY- SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT INITIALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND THE RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 FAVORED FOR MOST OPTIMAL DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL POSE THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDE-RANGING GIVEN BOTH THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND CONVECTION - LOW TO MID 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...UNTIL A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SFC WAVE SETTLES SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY 55 TO 60 DEGREES.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY... WITH THE SURFACE LOW RACING AWAY FROM THE NC COAST AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC FRIDAY MORNING...A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL RESUME AS A RELATIVELY STRONG 1030MB CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AS LOW AS 1350M...30M BELOW NORMAL...FRIDAY MORNING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT BEST AND LOWS POTENTIALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF DECOUPLING ACROSS THE NORTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW RETURN FLOW AND MODERATION TO COMMENCE...WITH TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE 80S BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND APPROACH 90 MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. PROVIDED THE RIDGE BUILDS AS STRONGLY AS ADVERTISED ...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BETWEEN GSO AND RDU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY SUB-VFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...MOST NOTABLY WHERE OVER ONE INCH OF RAIN EARLIER FELL AT RDU. AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALSO MAY YET DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR RWI AND FAY BETWEEN 07- 11Z. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER FROM LIGHT SE TO LIGHT NW WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO NORTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING AND EASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED INCOMING DRIER AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU... FOLLOWED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THU AFTERNOON. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...22 AVIATION...26

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