Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260133 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 816 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
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AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY... 00Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TONGUE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS. PRECIP WATER VALUES WERE AVERAGING 1.6-1.7 INCHES IN THIS REGION. FARTHER WEST...PRECIP WATER VALUES AVERAGED 1.1 INCHES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SHEAR AXIS EDGING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS EASTERN NC. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY WAS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF WILSON...AND OVER SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SANDHILLS. LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGEST A VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS DRIFTING EAST ALONG THE SC-NC BORDER THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. BASED ON HOW WELL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF THROUGH MID EVENING AND NEAR TERN MODELS SUGGESTING A THREAT LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE POP...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ANOTHER SHEAR AXIS NOTED CROSSING THE TN-LOWER OH VALLEY THIS EVENING...APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED OVER WESTERN NC...THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE CLOUDINESS A BIT AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD. IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDINESS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ABOUT TWO DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON WED...WITH THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONDITIONS ON WED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN COASTAL/FAR-EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES (I.E. CUMBERLAND/SAMPSON/WAYNE). ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STALLED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE WED NIGHT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND (ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP) AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WIND/HEIGHT FIELDS RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...AND WHETHER AN INLAND SHIFT IN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR (AS THE GFS SUGGESTS) OR PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALONG THE COAST (AS THE NAM SUGGESTS). -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY... FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE NC COAST AS MILD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...THE FRONTAL ZONE LIES BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND STRONGER OFFSHORE RIDGE WHICH WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AS WELL AS NUDGING THE FRONT SLOWLY INLAND. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN ONLY MARGINALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL...~30%...AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDINESS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT ON SATURDAY AS OVERRUNNING EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP...WHICH COULD LEAD TO INCREASING POPS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE PRETTY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL...POTENTIALLY COOLER ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL...IF THE DAMMING AND PRECIP SCENARIO MATERIALIZES. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE WILL POTENTIALLY BE SUBJECT TO THE INFLUENCE OF TS ERIKA. WE WILL BE IN THE WEAK TROF AREA BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST AND THE STRONGER AND STILL RETROGRADING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD BE THE DETERMINING STEERING MECHANISM FOR ERIKA OR HER REMAINS. REGARDLESS...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE MOIST AIRMASS. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 815 PM TUESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING... OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... KFAY/KRWI). HOWEVER... WITH A STALLED COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND GENERALLY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY... WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION... MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS/NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE KFAY/KRWI TERMINALS (POSSIBLY EVEN KRDU)... PARTICULARLY THE KFAY TERMINAL IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. FURTHER WEST AT THE KINT/KGSO TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHERE STRATUS DOES DEVELOP... EXPECT IT WILL SLOWLY LIFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION (MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AGAIN... THOUGH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME). LOOKING AHEAD: A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AT FAY/RWI (PARTICULARLY FAY) THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...MLM AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT

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