Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 191807 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 210 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OFF THE THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ ...
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AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY... THE SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST WV SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH THAT HAD WORKED INTO THE SE PART OF NC EARLIER WAS FILLING IN WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS DUE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE MID/UPPER LOW. DEEP LAYERED ENE FLOW WAS CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS ALL OF NC. THIS MOISTURE WAS BEING LIFTED UP AND OVER THE COASTAL BOUNDARY CREATING LARGE AREAS OF RAIN OVER NC. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE BEST RAINFALL HAD SHIFTED TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... FOOTHILLS AND BLUE RIDGE AIDED BY THE SURFACE TO H85 EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. EVEN THOUGHT THE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN 0.10 PER HOUR WITH THIS LARGE RAIN AREA... IT HAS BEEN NEARLY CONTINUOUS. THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS RAIN AREA FOCUSED OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON MAY SLOW DEVELOP EASTWARD IN TIME AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND THE MID/UPPER LOW GRADUALLY BUT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WHILE NOT A FLOODING THREAT... PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH SPOTTY MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT EXTENDING FROM WINSTON-SALEM TO ROXBORO SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST POP AND QPF AS DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE NE (VA). DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF NC. THIS REGION SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE... ANOTHER 0.25 TO LOCALLY 0.50 MAY STILL FALL DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. EVENTUALLY... THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL WIN OUT LATER SUNDAY... AS THE MID/UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. SENSIBLE WEATHER TONIGHT... OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN EXCEPT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FAR NORTH. BREEZY AND COOL. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIAD. ANY QPF WILL BE LIGHT... BUT WITH THE CLOUDS AND STIFF NE BREEZE... IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHILLY. SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY NW... AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE SUNDAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT... A MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER... IF THE CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR... AS SOME MODELS HINT... THE CLOUDINESS MAY BE SLOWER TO CLEAR. MOST AREAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WEST OF I-95 SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY... THE NAM ISNT QUITE AS DRY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOWING SOME MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850MB EAST OF I-95. WHILE THE AIRMASS WONT BEGIN TO MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL TUESDAY...STRONGER HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL OF UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WILL APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE PROJECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...LOWS WILL BE MUCH MORE MILD MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S WEST AND UPPER 40S EAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS CURRENTLY FORECAST A DEWPOINT RECOVERY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH COMBINED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST. MODEST SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT WITHOUT BETTER UPPER SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS ISOLATED AT THIS POINT.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY... BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN US ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY AS THICKNESSES FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAYBE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THEN QUICKLY REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM RESEMBLES THE EARLY WEAK SYSTEM...THOUGH POTENTIALLY WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM THE GULF. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY... PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH 06Z/20... EXCEPT FOR THE KGSO/KINT TERMINALS WHERE VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL. GUSTY NE WINDS AT 15-25KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KFAY THROUGH 12Z/20. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...SMITH AVIATION...BADGETT

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